Hindcast of Atlantic Hurricanes   ASO 1981-2006

       The variance explained by hindcasts with Atlantic MDR SST is less than those with tropical Pacific SST.

       Atlantic MDR SST, especially, west MDR SST, shows relatively higher skill in years of strong hurricane activity.

Hindcast	SST domain		Correlation		Skill: interannual		Hit rate: interannual			Hit rate: with obs. linear trend
Predictor	Lon	Lat	Obs SST	Obs No. of hurr	R(fcst, obs) hurr	Variance fcst/obs	All 5 classes	Bottom 20%	Top 20%	All 5 classes	Bottom 20%	Top 20%
Obs SST	80W-20W	10N-20N	1.00	0.38	0.18	15%	27%	20%	50%	38%	57%	60%
CFS SST IC04	80W-20W	10N-20N	0.62	0.12	-0.49	3%	15%	0%	0%	23%	29%	40%
CFS SST IC05	80W-20W	10N-20N	0.75	0.18	-0.36	4%	12%	0%	17%	27%	43%	40%
CFS SST IC06	80W-20W	10N-20N	0.84	0.40	0.19	14%	31%	20%	50%	42%	43%	60%
CFS SST IC07	80W-20W	10N-20N	0.92	0.52	0.42	26%	35%	20%	50%	50%	43%	80%

Predictor: Atlantic West MDR SST (ASO)

Hindcast	SST domain		Correlation		Skill: interannual		Hit rate: interannual			Hit rate: with obs. linear trend
Predictor	Lon	Lat	Obs SST	Obs No. of hurr	R(fcst, obs) hurr	Variance fcst/obs	All 5 classes	Bottom 20%	Top 20%	All 5 classes	Bottom 20%	Top 20%
Obs SST	80W-50W	10N-20N	1.00	0.38	0.18	14%	27%	20%	50%	38%	43%	60%
CFS SST IC04	80W-50W	10N-20N	0.66	0.24	-0.13	7%	27%	0%	33%	27%	29%	40%
CFS SST IC05	80W-50W	10N-20N	0.77	0.29	-0.04	8%	31%	20%	50%	31%	29%	60%
CFS SST IC06	80W-50W	10N-20N	0.80	0.45	0.31	18%	35%	20%	50%	46%	43%	80%
CFS SST IC07	80W-50W	10N-20N	0.86	0.55	0.46	29%	27%	20%	50%	42%	43%	80%

Predictor: Atlantic East MDR SST (ASO)

Hindcast	SST domain		Correlation		Skill: interannual		Hit rate: interannual			Hit rate: with obs. linear trend
Predictor	Lon	Lat	Obs SST	Obs No. of hurr	R(fcst, obs) hurr	Variance fcst/obs	All 5 classes	Bottom 20%	Top 20%	All 5 classes	Bottom 20%	Top 20%
Obs SST	50W-20W	10N-20N	1.00	0.37	0.15	14%	23%	20%	33%	42%	57%	60%
CFS SST IC04	50W-20W	10N-20N	0.51	-0.04	-0.81	1%	12%	0%	0%	27%	43%	40%
CFS SST IC05	50W-20W	10N-20N	0.66	0.02	-0.90	2%	12%	0%	0%	27%	43%	40%
CFS SST IC06	50W-20W	10N-20N	0.84	0.30	-0.04	8%	19%	0%	33%	38%	43%	60%
CFS SST IC07	50W-20W	10N-20N	0.95	0.45	0.29	19%	35%	20%	50%	46%	43%	60%