Hindcast of Number of Atlantic Hurricanes   ASO 1981-2006

Hit Rate: Hindcast based on ASO CFS Data with IC06
SST
U200-U850
Fcst vs. Obs
Hit rate: interannual
Hit rate: total
TPCF
MDR
W MDR
E MDR
MDR
W MDR
E MDR
Correlation
Variance
All 5 classes
Bottom 20%
Top 20%
All 5 classes
Bottom 20%
Top 20%
X
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.52
34%
38%
60%
33%
31%
43%
60%
 
X
 
 
 
 
 
0.19
14%
31%
20%
50%
42%
43%
60%
 
 
X
 
 
 
 
0.31
18%
35%
20%
50%
46%
43%
80%
 
 
 
X
 
 
 
-0.04
8%
19%
0%
33%
38%
43%
60%
 
 
 
 
X
 
 
0.71
55%
46%
60%
67%
38%
57%
60%
 
 
 
 
 
X
 
0.70
53%
50%
60%
67%
38%
57%
60%
 
 
 
 
 
 
X
0.69
55%
31%
60%
50%
38%
57%
60%
X
X
 
 
 
 
 
0.54
38%
27%
60%
50%
27%
29%
60%
X
 
X
 
 
 
 
0.54
37%
23%
60%
50%
27%
29%
60%
X
 
 
X
 
 
 
0.53
39%
27%
60%
50%
31%
29%
60%
X
 
 
 
X
 
 
0.69
50%
42%
60%
67%
42%
57%
60%
X
 
 
 
 
X
 
0.68
48%
46%
60%
50%
38%
57%
60%
X
 
 
 
 
 
X
0.68
50%
31%
60%
50%
38%
57%
60%
 
X
 
 
X
 
 
0.67
48%
46%
60%
67%
35%
57%
60%
 
 
X
 
 
X
 
0.67
48%
42%
60%
50%
38%
57%
60%
 
 
 
X
 
 
X
0.65
49%
27%
40%
67%
38%
57%
60%
X
X
 
 
X
 
 
0.66
48%
35%
60%
50%
38%
57%
60%
X
 
X
 
 
X
 
0.66
47%
35%
60%
50%
31%
57%
60%
X
 
 
X
 
 
X
0.64
49%
31%
40%
67%
42%
57%
60%