Climate Prediction Center seasonal sea ice prediction
May 2024 to
Jan 2025 (Updated: Wed May 1 16:16:14 EDT 2024)
This page displays Climate Prediction Center (CPC) experimental sea ice forecasts for the next 9 months.
The forecasts are initialized from CPC sea ice initialization system (CSIS) and produced with Unified Forecast System (UFS).
The forecast ensemble includes
20 members. Mean bias correction is made based on the average differences between retrospecitve
forecasts and observations for 2007-2023. The forecasts are initialized from 21-25Apr2024 with
four forecast members from each day. Sea ice extent (SIE) is the area sum of grid boxes where sea ice
concentration is greater than 15%. Sea ice probability (SIP) is defined as the fraction of ensemble
members in an ensemble forecast with ice concentration in excess of 15%.
Sea ice melt date (IMD;available for forecasts starting from Jan.-Aug.) for each grid box is determined as the first
day of the first 15 day period of sea ice concentration below 15% after 1 April. Sea ice freeze date (IFD; available for forecasts starting from Jun.-Dec.)
is determined by working backwards from the last day of the forecast and finding the first 15 day period of
sea ice concentration below 15% and defining IFD as the day after this period.
Sea ice extent
Pan-Arctic
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Spatial maps
Forecast data can be downloaded here.
The performance of seasonal sea ice prediction with UFS was evaluated in Zhu et al. (2023).
