CPC Fire-weather Week 2 (8-14 Day) Forecasts

(Updated: Tue Apr 1 12:24:08 UTC 2025)

This page provides near real time week 2 (8-14 day) forecasts for the fire indicators and fire-weather related meteorological variables based on the fire weather forecast system ( Worsnop et al. 2020 and 2021 ) developed at NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory. The wildfire indicators that are based on the U.S. Forest Service National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS) are the simulations from the fire model of the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast (GEFF). The meteorolgical variables that force the fire model are from the current version of NCEP GEFS (GEFSv12) real time operational forecasts. The forecast system covers the spatial domain of contiguous United States.  

Wildfire danger index:
- Spread component (SC): Forward rate of spread at the head of the fire in feet per minute (ft/min);
- Energy release component (ERC): Potential available energy at the head of the fire (25Btu/ft^2);
- Ignition component ( IC): Numerical rating of the probability that a fire that requires suppression action will result if a firebrand is introduced into a fine fuel complex (%);
- Burning index (BI): Metric of flame length in feet at the head of a fire (10 ft).

Meteorological variables displayed in the page include: 24hr precipitation acumulation, local noon cloud cover, 24hr min 2m relative humidity and max temperature, and local noon wind speed.


Burning Index
Ignition Component
Energy Release Component
Spread Component
Precipitation
Cloud Cover
Humidity
Temperature
Wind Speed

Maps of wildfire danger index tendency will come soon

Maps of wildfire danger index in deterministic values will come soon


Week 2 mean anomalies from the last 15 days of initial conditions
Initial Condition
BI
IC
ERC
SC
Precipitation
Cloud Cover
Humidity
Temperature
Wind Speed
Mar 31, 2025
Mar 30, 2025
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Mar 17, 2025


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