CPC Fire-weather Week 2 (8-14 Day) Forecasts

This page provides near real time week 2 (8-14 day) forecasts for the fire indicators and fire-weather related meteorological variables based on the fire weather forecast system ( Worsnop et al. 2020 and 2021 ) developed at NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory. The wildfire indicators that are based on the U.S. Forest Service National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS) are the simulations from the fire model of the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast (GEFF). The meteorolgical variables that force the fire model are from the current version of NCEP GEFS (GEFSv12) real time operational forecasts. The forecast system covers the spatial domain of contiguous United States.  

Wildfire danger index:
- Spread component (SC): Forward rate of spread at the head of the fire in feet per minute (ft/min);
- Energy release component (ERC): Potential available energy at the head of the fire (25Btu/ft^2);
- Ignition component ( IC): Numerical rating of the probability that a fire that requires suppression action will result if a firebrand is introduced into a fine fuel complex (%);
- Burning index (BI): Metric of flame length in feet at the head of a fire (10 ft).

Meteorological variables displayed in the page include: 24hr precipitation acumulation, local noon cloud cover, 24hr min 2m relative humidity and max temperature, and local noon wind speed.

 

Burning Index	Ignition Component	Energy Release Component	Spread Component
Precipitation	Cloud Cover	Humidity	Temperature	Wind Speed

Week 2 mean anomalies from the last 7 days of initial conditions

Initial Condition	BI	IC	ERC	SC	Precipitation	Cloud Cover	Humidity	Temperature	Wind Speed
Apr 24, 2024
Apr 23, 2024
Apr 22, 2024
Apr 21, 2024
Apr 20, 2024
Apr 19, 2024
Apr 18, 2024
Apr 17, 2024
Apr 16, 2024
Apr 15, 2024
Apr 14, 2024
Apr 13, 2024
Apr 12, 2024
Apr 11, 2024
Apr 10, 2024

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