Burning Index
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Ignition Component
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Energy Release Component
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Spread Component
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Fire Weather Index
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Precipitation
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Cloud Cover
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Humidity
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Temperature
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Wind Speed
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This page provides near real-time week 2 (8-14 day) forecasts for wildfire danger indices and fire-weather-related meteorological variables. This Contiguous United States (CONUS)-adapted forecast system was developed by NOAA’s Physical Sciences Laboratory ( Worsnop et al. 2020 and 2021 ), building on the fire model of the Global ECMWF Fire Forecast (GEFF), and is driven by meteorolgical inputs from the current version of NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv12).
Wildfire danger indices monitored on this page include:
From the U.S. Forest Service National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS):
- Spread component (SC): Forward rate of spread at the head of a fire, in feet per minute (ft/min).
- Energy release component (ERC): Potential available energy at the head of a fire (25Btu/ft^2).
- Ignition component ( IC): Numerical rating of the probability that a fire requiring suppression will result if a firebrand is introduced into a fine fuel complex (%).
- Burning index (BI): A number that reflects the contribution of fire behavior to containment efforts, expressed as the flame length (in feet) at the head of a fire, multiplied by ten.
From the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS):
- Fire Weather Index (FWI): Numerical rating of potential fire intensity (unitless).
Meteorological variables include: 24hr precipitation acumulation, local noon cloud cover, 24hr min 2m relative humidity and max temperature, and local noon wind speed.
Note: The website has been updated with the following new content:
1. 8–14 day forecasts of probabilities for above-normal (≥66.66th percentile) and below-normal (≤33.33rd percentile) conditions.
2. 8–14 day forecasts of ensemble mean anomalies.
3. Thresholds for above- and below-normal categories (precipitation, cloud cover, and humidity) during the 8–14 day outlook period, based on 2000–2019 climatology.
4. Climatological averages for the 8–14 day outlook period (2000–2019).
5. Thresholds corresponding to the 60th, 80th, and 90th percentiles of the historical record.
Click on each forecast map to view the newly added features.
| Burning Index
|
Ignition Component
|
Energy Release Component
|
Spread Component
|
Fire Weather Index
|
| Precipitation
|
Cloud Cover
|
Humidity
|
Temperature
|
Wind Speed
|
| Initial Condition |
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