WEEKS 3-4 forecasts for the US & vicinity

How Temperatures across the US will be as compared to Yesterday's Temperatures?

Instead of getting future forecasts as "anomalies/departures" from some long-term (30 years or so) mean conditions called as climatology or normal (that you may not know or remember), how about, if you can get the forecasts as "changes" from yesterday's "weather conditions" that you felt and experienced just yesterday, that you can actually remember and can relate to immediately, so you can plan ahead!

This page displays Experimental TENDENCY Forecasts (and not the standard anomaly forecasts) based on the NCEP coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2). By tendency forecasts we mean that the forecasts for future WEEK1P(days 6-10), WEEK 2, WEEK 3, & WEEK 4 periods mean are computed as DEPARTURES from just the "forecast day" (and not from some long term climatology) mean analyses. Here the forecast day is yesterday. Time series of Spatial Correlations between the "forecast tendency map" and the "verification tendency map" for many recent days are shown as well. Also shown are the most recent performance of wk1p/wk2/wk3/wk4 (all ending yesterday) "tendency forecast" and "tendency verification" maps and their correlation. For comparison, we will also show side-by-side the 'standard(traditional) anomaly forecast' map and the corresponding 'verification anomaly' map over the United States and their correlation. Here, the traditional "anomaly" is with reference to 1999-2010 base period mean, the period for which the historical CFSv2 based forecasts are available. Please note The tendency forecast correlations are generally inflated and are always much higher (as compared to standard anomaly correlations) as it has the "march of the seasonal cycle" built in, even though the seasonal cycle in the IC has been removed. DISCLAIMER: You may use these experimental products only at your own discretion, as appropriately and with caution.

The forecasts shown here are the average of the 16 member ensembles run every day (4 per 00/06/12/18 Z) in operations at NCEP.Every day ~5:40 AM EST or 10:40 GMT 16-member(4-each from 00/06/12/18Z) averaged forecasts from previous day (YESTERDAY) are updated. The first forecast day is today, 2nd forecast day is tomorrow, and so on upto week 4. All days refer to Greenwich Mean Times(GMT).

CAUTION : While every effort will be made to routinely update the products in this website, the products shown here may not always update everyday since the jobs run on research and not operational computers. More importantly, the forecasts shown here are not the official CPC or NCEP or NWS forecasts or outlooks. The official forecasts or outlooks, may be found at official CPC website.