NH 20N-pole lead info: 24 672 24 28 months: 1 1 cycle: 0 ens size: 1 1999 2010 2011 2016 SEC forecasts gain in scores due to SEC SEC forecasts gain in scores due to SEC rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac 1 24 10.3 111.8 113.8 99.6 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.08 10.3 111.0 112.8 99.6 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.07 2 48 19.4 110.7 113.8 98.6 -1.3 -0.1 0.0 0.20 18.9 109.9 112.8 98.6 -1.1 -0.1 0.0 0.18 3 72 30.5 109.9 113.8 96.4 -1.4 -0.2 0.0 0.35 29.8 109.0 112.8 96.5 -1.1 -0.1 0.0 0.26 4 96 43.6 109.4 113.8 92.4 -1.4 -0.4 0.0 0.48 42.6 108.1 112.8 92.7 -0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.31 5 120 57.4 109.0 113.8 86.8 -1.3 -0.5 0.0 0.58 55.8 107.8 112.8 87.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 0.34 6 144 71.7 108.9 113.8 79.3 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 0.65 68.8 107.5 112.8 80.6 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.38 7 168 85.1 108.7 113.8 70.8 -1.3 -0.8 0.0 0.72 80.9 106.9 112.8 73.0 -0.9 -0.5 0.0 0.49 8 192 97.0 108.7 113.8 62.1 -1.4 -1.1 0.0 0.79 92.9 106.6 112.8 64.3 -1.0 -0.6 0.0 0.61 9 216 107.6 109.5 113.8 53.6 -1.5 -1.3 0.0 0.81 103.8 106.4 112.8 55.3 -1.1 -0.7 0.0 0.70 10 240 117.8 110.2 113.8 44.7 -1.6 -1.5 0.0 0.76 112.1 106.1 112.8 47.7 -1.3 -0.8 0.0 0.81 11 264 125.4 110.3 113.8 37.4 -1.6 -1.7 0.0 0.71 119.5 106.2 112.8 40.5 -1.4 -1.1 0.0 0.83 12 288 131.2 110.6 113.8 31.7 -1.7 -1.9 0.0 0.65 125.8 106.4 112.8 34.3 -1.4 -1.4 0.0 0.69 13 312 135.7 110.7 113.8 26.9 -1.7 -2.0 0.0 0.58 130.3 106.9 112.8 29.8 -1.5 -1.7 0.0 0.53 14 336 140.2 110.8 113.8 22.1 -1.7 -2.1 0.0 0.48 133.7 106.4 112.8 25.7 -1.5 -1.9 0.0 0.49 15 360 144.0 111.3 113.8 18.1 -1.8 -2.3 0.0 0.42 136.3 105.9 112.8 22.5 -1.5 -1.9 0.0 0.43 16 384 147.0 112.1 113.8 15.3 -1.9 -2.4 0.0 0.37 138.3 105.3 112.8 19.8 -1.6 -2.0 0.0 0.37 17 408 148.5 112.2 113.8 13.7 -1.9 -2.5 0.0 0.33 140.8 105.0 112.8 16.6 -1.5 -2.1 0.0 0.22 18 432 150.3 112.7 113.8 11.9 -2.1 -2.7 0.0 0.30 142.7 104.8 112.8 14.2 -1.4 -2.2 0.0 0.01 19 456 152.3 113.5 113.8 10.2 -2.1 -2.9 0.0 0.24 144.4 105.0 112.8 12.3 -1.3 -2.3 0.0 -0.23 20 480 153.8 113.9 113.8 8.8 -2.2 -3.0 0.0 0.23 147.4 105.8 112.8 9.2 -1.2 -2.3 0.0 -0.37 21 504 154.8 114.5 113.8 8.1 -2.4 -3.2 0.0 0.24 148.7 105.9 112.8 7.7 -1.1 -2.3 0.0 -0.45 22 528 155.4 115.0 113.8 7.8 -2.5 -3.3 0.0 0.28 148.8 105.9 112.8 7.5 -1.0 -2.3 0.0 -0.61 23 552 155.9 115.7 113.8 7.7 -2.8 -3.6 0.0 0.32 148.9 106.8 112.8 8.1 -0.9 -2.2 0.0 -0.64 24 576 155.6 115.3 113.8 7.8 -2.9 -3.8 0.0 0.30 149.4 107.6 112.8 8.1 -1.0 -2.3 0.0 -0.61 25 600 155.3 114.5 113.8 7.5 -2.8 -3.8 0.0 0.24 150.3 107.8 112.8 7.3 -1.1 -2.2 0.0 -0.51 26 624 155.7 114.0 113.8 6.5 -2.8 -3.8 0.0 0.19 150.8 108.5 112.8 7.2 -1.1 -2.2 0.0 -0.41 27 648 156.5 114.1 113.8 5.8 -2.8 -3.9 0.0 0.16 153.0 109.7 112.8 5.5 -1.0 -2.1 0.0 -0.53 28 672 157.1 113.7 113.8 4.7 -2.9 -4.0 0.0 0.14 153.4 110.6 112.8 5.7 -0.9 -1.9 0.0 -0.51 TR 20N-20S lead info: 24 672 24 28 month: 1 1 cycle: 0 ens size: 1 1999 2010 2011 2016 SEC forecasts gain in scores due to SEC SEC forecasts gain in scores due to SEC rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac 1 24 3.4 16.9 17.1 98.0 -2.1 -0.5 0.0 3.08 3.8 19.9 20.2 98.2 -1.6 -0.7 0.0 1.70 2 48 4.8 16.8 17.1 96.0 -4.3 -1.5 0.0 9.00 5.2 19.7 20.2 96.6 -3.3 -1.8 0.0 4.84 3 72 6.1 16.8 17.1 93.5 -6.2 -2.9 0.0 14.84 6.6 19.5 20.2 94.5 -4.7 -3.0 0.0 8.00 4 96 7.3 16.8 17.1 90.7 -7.5 -4.2 0.0 19.36 7.9 19.3 20.2 92.2 -5.8 -4.1 0.0 10.73 5 120 8.5 16.8 17.1 87.4 -8.4 -5.2 0.0 22.28 9.2 19.2 20.2 89.3 -6.7 -5.1 0.0 13.03 6 144 9.8 16.8 17.1 83.2 -9.3 -6.4 0.0 24.68 10.5 19.3 20.2 85.9 -7.4 -6.1 0.0 14.64 7 168 11.2 16.7 17.1 78.3 -10.0 -7.5 0.0 26.03 11.9 19.2 20.2 81.8 -7.9 -7.0 0.0 15.55 8 192 12.5 16.7 17.1 72.9 -10.6 -8.6 0.0 26.56 13.3 19.1 20.2 77.4 -8.3 -7.9 0.0 15.96 9 216 13.6 16.8 17.1 67.9 -11.3 -9.6 0.0 26.57 14.5 18.9 20.2 72.6 -8.6 -8.6 0.0 15.97 10 240 14.7 17.0 17.1 63.0 -12.0 -10.7 0.0 26.23 15.6 18.7 20.2 68.1 -8.8 -9.3 0.0 15.55 11 264 15.4 17.0 17.1 59.1 -12.6 -11.6 0.0 25.91 16.4 18.5 20.2 64.4 -9.2 -10.0 0.0 15.39 12 288 16.1 16.8 17.1 55.0 -13.3 -12.6 0.0 25.55 17.3 18.3 20.2 60.3 -9.4 -10.6 0.0 14.51 13 312 16.8 16.8 17.1 51.0 -13.7 -13.4 0.0 24.67 18.1 18.1 20.2 56.1 -9.3 -11.0 0.0 13.29 14 336 17.5 16.9 17.1 47.1 -14.1 -14.0 0.0 23.36 18.7 17.9 20.2 52.4 -9.5 -11.5 0.0 12.43 15 360 18.2 17.0 17.1 43.2 -14.3 -14.4 0.0 21.96 19.2 17.8 20.2 49.8 -9.7 -11.9 0.0 11.81 16 384 18.7 17.0 17.1 40.1 -14.5 -14.9 0.0 20.86 19.8 17.8 20.2 46.7 -10.0 -12.5 0.0 11.00 17 408 19.1 17.0 17.1 37.6 -14.8 -15.4 0.0 19.92 20.2 17.6 20.2 43.9 -10.2 -12.9 0.0 10.29 18 432 19.4 17.0 17.1 35.5 -15.1 -15.9 0.0 19.21 20.6 17.6 20.2 41.4 -10.3 -13.1 0.0 9.38 19 456 19.6 17.1 17.1 34.5 -15.3 -16.1 0.0 18.80 20.8 17.7 20.2 40.1 -10.5 -13.5 0.0 8.94 20 480 19.9 17.5 17.1 33.6 -15.3 -16.1 0.0 18.16 21.0 17.7 20.2 39.6 -10.9 -13.8 0.0 8.97 21 504 20.1 17.6 17.1 32.7 -15.2 -16.0 0.0 17.63 20.9 17.8 20.2 40.5 -11.1 -14.0 0.0 9.40 22 528 20.3 17.6 17.1 31.7 -15.2 -16.0 0.0 17.17 20.7 17.9 20.2 41.6 -11.4 -14.2 0.0 10.08 23 552 20.4 17.5 17.1 30.5 -15.0 -16.0 0.0 16.67 20.9 18.0 20.2 40.7 -11.5 -14.3 0.0 9.67 24 576 20.6 17.5 17.1 29.0 -15.0 -16.0 0.0 15.94 21.0 18.0 20.2 39.9 -11.3 -14.2 0.0 9.22 25 600 21.0 17.6 17.1 26.9 -14.8 -15.9 0.0 14.88 21.1 18.2 20.2 40.3 -11.5 -14.3 0.0 9.43 26 624 21.1 17.5 17.1 25.8 -14.7 -16.0 0.0 14.38 21.3 18.5 20.2 39.6 -11.6 -14.4 0.0 9.26 27 648 21.0 17.4 17.1 26.0 -14.7 -16.0 0.0 14.49 21.6 18.6 20.2 38.3 -11.5 -14.3 0.0 8.62 28 672 21.0 17.5 17.1 26.8 -14.8 -16.0 0.0 14.86 21.5 18.6 20.2 39.1 -11.8 -14.5 0.0 9.01 SH 20S-pole lead info: 24 672 24 28 month: 1 1 cycle: 0 ens size: 1 1999 2010 2011 2016 SEC forecasts gain in scores due to SEC SEC forecasts gain in scores due to SEC rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac 1 24 10.7 87.8 88.7 99.3 -1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.14 10.6 93.6 94.9 99.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.08 2 48 19.1 87.3 88.7 97.7 -1.4 -0.3 0.0 0.36 18.6 92.6 94.9 98.1 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.17 3 72 29.1 86.9 88.7 94.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.0 0.55 28.4 91.7 94.9 95.4 -0.8 -0.6 0.0 0.26 4 96 41.1 86.3 88.7 89.0 -1.4 -0.7 0.0 0.69 39.7 90.6 94.9 90.9 -0.9 -0.9 0.0 0.34 5 120 53.6 86.1 88.7 81.3 -1.3 -0.9 0.0 0.74 51.4 89.6 94.9 84.6 -0.9 -1.2 0.0 0.39 6 144 65.7 86.1 88.7 71.8 -1.3 -1.2 0.0 0.77 62.8 88.6 94.9 76.8 -0.8 -1.4 0.0 0.35 7 168 76.9 86.3 88.7 61.4 -1.3 -1.4 0.0 0.74 73.6 87.8 94.9 67.8 -0.8 -1.6 0.0 0.26 8 192 87.1 86.5 88.7 50.6 -1.3 -1.6 0.0 0.66 83.1 87.1 94.9 58.6 -0.8 -1.7 0.0 0.12 9 216 94.8 86.5 88.7 41.5 -1.5 -2.0 0.0 0.61 91.0 86.3 94.9 49.9 -0.7 -1.8 0.0 -0.14 10 240 101.1 86.2 88.7 33.2 -1.7 -2.4 0.0 0.52 98.6 85.5 94.9 40.7 -0.5 -2.0 0.0 -0.50 11 264 106.4 86.0 88.7 25.8 -1.9 -2.6 0.0 0.40 104.5 84.9 94.9 32.8 -0.4 -2.2 0.0 -0.93 12 288 110.3 86.0 88.7 20.4 -2.0 -2.9 0.0 0.27 108.6 84.7 94.9 27.3 -0.5 -2.6 0.0 -1.21 13 312 113.1 86.2 88.7 16.5 -2.0 -3.0 0.0 0.12 112.7 84.5 94.9 21.5 -0.6 -2.8 0.0 -1.39 14 336 115.8 86.6 88.7 12.8 -2.0 -3.0 0.0 -0.04 115.8 84.0 94.9 16.6 -0.7 -2.9 0.0 -1.48 15 360 117.7 86.9 88.7 10.1 -1.9 -3.1 0.0 -0.17 117.4 84.0 94.9 14.2 -0.8 -3.0 0.0 -1.53 16 384 119.3 86.9 88.7 7.7 -2.0 -3.2 0.0 -0.25 119.3 84.6 94.9 11.9 -0.8 -3.1 0.0 -1.63 17 408 120.4 86.6 88.7 5.8 -2.0 -3.3 0.0 -0.31 120.3 84.8 94.9 10.7 -1.0 -3.4 0.0 -1.66 18 432 120.9 86.5 88.7 4.8 -2.1 -3.4 0.0 -0.36 121.3 84.8 94.9 9.2 -1.0 -3.6 0.0 -1.90 19 456 121.3 86.8 88.7 4.5 -2.1 -3.4 0.0 -0.40 122.1 84.9 94.9 8.0 -0.9 -3.7 0.0 -2.11 20 480 121.9 87.1 88.7 4.0 -2.1 -3.5 0.0 -0.46 122.0 85.0 94.9 8.4 -1.1 -3.9 0.0 -1.99 21 504 122.0 87.0 88.7 3.6 -2.1 -3.5 0.0 -0.51 122.3 85.5 94.9 8.4 -1.3 -4.0 0.0 -1.81 22 528 122.4 86.8 88.7 2.7 -2.2 -3.6 0.0 -0.55 122.7 85.7 94.9 7.9 -1.5 -4.1 0.0 -1.70 23 552 122.9 87.0 88.7 2.2 -2.3 -3.8 0.0 -0.57 123.7 85.6 94.9 6.3 -1.6 -4.3 0.0 -1.79 24 576 123.0 87.2 88.7 2.2 -2.5 -4.0 0.0 -0.52 124.2 86.1 94.9 6.1 -1.6 -4.4 0.0 -1.89 25 600 123.2 87.8 88.7 2.6 -2.5 -3.9 0.0 -0.44 123.9 86.3 94.9 6.7 -1.7 -4.6 0.0 -1.91 26 624 123.3 88.4 88.7 3.0 -2.6 -4.1 0.0 -0.38 124.5 86.2 94.9 5.6 -1.7 -4.7 0.0 -2.08 27 648 123.6 88.6 88.7 2.9 -2.8 -4.4 0.0 -0.40 125.3 86.0 94.9 4.2 -1.5 -4.6 0.0 -2.29 28 672 124.1 88.8 88.7 2.3 -3.0 -4.6 0.0 -0.46 126.2 86.0 94.9 2.8 -1.4 -4.5 0.0 -2.45 weekly CFSv2-oper 3 72 112.5 88.7 88.3 19.2 -2.6 -3.4 0.0 0.63 106.5 81.7 87.6 21.1 -1.8 -2.9 0.0 0.04 3 72 115.1 92.0 88.3 18.5 -2.6 -3.4 0.0 0.63 108.3 84.7 87.6 21.0 -1.8 -2.9 0.0 0.04 3 1 3 72 115.1 92.0 88.3 18.5 112.5 88.7 88.3 19.16 3 72 108.3 84.7 87.6 21.0 106.5 81.7 87.6 21.08 4 96 118.4 88.9 88.3 10.8 -3.6 -4.9 0.0 0.42 113.6 83.2 87.6 11.6 -1.1 -2.7 0.0 -1.00 4 96 122.0 93.8 88.3 10.3 -3.6 -4.9 0.0 0.42 114.7 85.9 87.6 12.6 -1.1 -2.7 0.0 -1.00 4 1 4 96 122.0 93.8 88.3 10.3 118.4 88.9 88.3 10.76 4 96 114.7 85.9 87.6 12.6 113.6 83.2 87.6 11.61 5 120 92.8 73.3 71.9 18.2 -3.7 -5.0 0.0 0.70 87.5 66.8 71.8 20.4 -1.8 -3.6 0.0 -0.72 5 120 96.6 78.3 71.9 17.5 -3.7 -5.0 0.0 0.70 89.3 70.4 71.8 21.1 -1.8 -3.6 0.0 -0.72 5 1 5 120 96.6 78.3 71.9 17.5 92.8 73.3 71.9 18.21 5 120 89.3 70.4 71.8 21.1 87.5 66.8 71.8 20.39 5 2000 111.2 84.1 88.7 17.3 106.7 81.3 88.7 21.45 5 2001 82.5 72.3 57.5 20.9 83.4 68.8 57.5 13.78 5 2002 106.0 85.9 68.7 7.4 100.0 77.8 68.7 7.22 5 2003 103.3 73.3 78.5 7.5 102.3 68.5 78.5 3.53 5 2004 94.0 80.3 68.5 21.0 91.6 74.1 68.5 17.65 5 2005 92.2 81.2 71.1 27.3 87.2 75.0 71.1 28.79 5 2006 94.2 70.6 67.9 7.5 92.3 66.4 67.9 5.43 5 2007 92.7 73.7 64.7 10.6 84.1 71.5 64.7 23.91 5 2008 93.7 76.0 66.1 13.5 88.6 71.0 66.1 16.58 5 2009 101.5 83.3 74.3 17.5 95.9 79.7 74.3 22.54 5 2010 87.4 78.9 79.5 39.1 85.8 70.9 79.5 35.39 5 2011 89.6 72.8 77.2 28.8 86.4 66.6 77.2 28.43 5 2012 85.0 70.5 70.8 27.6 86.8 70.1 70.8 24.20 5 2013 85.6 70.0 64.6 19.2 85.1 68.4 64.6 18.16 5 2014 87.8 70.5 68.3 19.9 85.0 63.8 68.3 17.36 5 2015 88.2 68.7 68.8 17.7 84.3 65.9 68.8 21.74 5 2016 99.0 69.8 80.1 13.3 97.0 65.7 80.1 12.57 5 2017 101.8 81.0 64.8 3.8 98.6 77.4 64.8 4.61 5 2018************************ ************************