NH 20N-pole lead info: 24 240 24 10 months: 2 2 cycle: 6 ens size: 1 1999 2010 2011 2014 raw forecasts gain in scores due to SEC raw forecasts gain in scores due to SEC rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac 1 24 4.9 6.2 5.5 66.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 -5.47 5.1 6.5 6.0 66.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 -5.64 2 48 4.9 6.2 5.5 65.5 0.7 0.6 0.0 -5.57 5.2 6.5 6.0 65.5 0.9 0.9 0.0 -5.24 3 72 5.0 6.2 5.5 64.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 -5.65 5.3 6.5 6.0 64.1 0.9 0.9 0.0 -5.00 4 96 5.1 6.2 5.5 61.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 -5.54 5.5 6.5 6.0 62.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 -4.66 5 120 5.4 6.2 5.5 58.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 -5.27 5.7 6.5 6.0 58.8 0.8 0.9 0.0 -4.07 6 144 5.7 6.2 5.5 53.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 -4.80 6.0 6.6 6.0 54.2 0.7 0.9 0.0 -3.35 7 168 6.0 6.2 5.5 47.4 0.7 0.7 0.0 -4.27 6.3 6.6 6.0 49.6 0.7 0.8 0.0 -2.66 8 192 6.4 6.3 5.5 41.4 0.6 0.7 0.0 -3.61 6.6 6.6 6.0 44.7 0.6 0.8 0.0 -1.86 9 216 6.7 6.3 5.5 36.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 -3.06 6.9 6.6 6.0 40.0 0.6 0.8 0.0 -1.28 10 240 7.0 6.3 5.5 31.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 -2.58 7.1 6.6 6.0 35.7 0.6 0.8 0.0 -0.80 TR 20N-20S lead info: 24 240 24 10 month: 2 2 cycle: 6 ens size: 1 1999 2010 2011 2014 raw forecasts gain in scores due to SEC raw forecasts gain in scores due to SEC rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac 1 24 3.6 3.5 2.2 24.9 2.7 2.8 0.0 -9.48 3.3 3.2 1.9 22.5 2.6 2.7 0.0 -8.47 2 48 3.6 3.5 2.2 24.4 2.7 2.8 0.0 -9.21 3.4 3.2 1.9 21.9 2.6 2.7 0.0 -8.31 3 72 3.6 3.5 2.2 23.8 2.7 2.8 0.0 -8.96 3.4 3.2 1.9 21.4 2.6 2.7 0.0 -8.09 4 96 3.7 3.5 2.2 23.0 2.7 2.8 0.0 -8.58 3.4 3.2 1.9 20.9 2.5 2.6 0.0 -7.95 5 120 3.7 3.5 2.2 22.2 2.7 2.8 0.0 -8.20 3.4 3.2 1.9 20.0 2.5 2.7 0.0 -7.55 6 144 3.7 3.5 2.2 20.9 2.6 2.8 0.0 -7.64 3.4 3.2 1.9 19.0 2.5 2.7 0.0 -7.07 7 168 3.7 3.5 2.2 19.4 2.6 2.8 0.0 -6.94 3.4 3.2 1.9 18.2 2.5 2.7 0.0 -6.68 8 192 3.8 3.5 2.2 17.6 2.6 2.8 0.0 -6.14 3.5 3.2 1.9 15.9 2.5 2.7 0.0 -5.62 9 216 3.8 3.5 2.2 16.0 2.6 2.8 0.0 -5.40 3.6 3.3 1.9 13.3 2.5 2.7 0.0 -4.46 10 240 3.8 3.5 2.2 14.4 2.6 2.8 0.0 -4.72 3.6 3.3 1.9 11.6 2.5 2.7 0.0 -3.72 SH 20S-pole lead info: 24 240 24 10 month: 2 2 cycle: 6 ens size: 1 1999 2010 2011 2014 raw forecasts gain in scores due to SEC raw forecasts gain in scores due to SEC rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac rms sdf sdo ac 1 24 4.8 5.3 2.9 43.8 3.4 3.2 0.0-16.58 4.7 5.1 3.1 43.6 3.3 3.2 0.0-13.46 2 48 4.8 5.3 2.9 42.9 3.3 3.1 0.0-16.04 4.7 5.1 3.1 42.5 3.2 3.2 0.0-12.90 3 72 4.8 5.2 2.9 41.4 3.3 3.1 0.0-15.56 4.7 5.0 3.1 41.6 3.2 3.2 0.0-12.60 4 96 4.8 5.2 2.9 39.5 3.3 3.1 0.0-15.01 4.7 5.0 3.1 40.1 3.2 3.2 0.0-12.08 5 120 4.9 5.1 2.9 37.1 3.2 3.1 0.0-14.23 4.7 4.9 3.1 37.0 3.1 3.2 0.0-11.01 6 144 5.0 5.1 2.9 32.5 3.2 3.1 0.0-12.55 4.8 4.9 3.1 33.9 3.1 3.2 0.0 -9.81 7 168 5.1 5.1 2.9 27.1 3.2 3.2 0.0-10.61 4.9 4.8 3.1 29.7 3.1 3.2 0.0 -8.43 8 192 5.2 5.0 2.9 22.3 3.1 3.2 0.0 -8.80 5.1 4.8 3.1 24.1 3.1 3.3 0.0 -6.31 9 216 5.4 5.1 2.9 18.3 3.1 3.2 0.0 -7.30 5.2 4.8 3.1 18.9 3.0 3.3 0.0 -4.32 10 240 5.4 5.0 2.9 14.8 3.1 3.2 0.0 -5.95 5.4 4.9 3.1 16.0 3.0 3.3 0.0 -3.21