HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was about -0.19 C for FMA2014, a continued slightly –ve value.

The CA method, acting on global FMA2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members going positive but in the neutral zone for Nino34 thru MJJ2014. By summer 2014 the first members pass the +0.5C threshold, and nearly all members grow >+0.5 later in 2014, and three members to +1.0K or more.

Weights have changed mildly from last month, in particular some rather large weights are showing up like 2003 with +0.26 and 2000 with -0.17. The last 10 years have unusually small weights and some older years have unusually high weights (1959). There are 4 (6) large +ve (-ve) weights.

1988 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986, and thru last month it was labelled 1987) is no longer below -0.10 so its two year run of holding on to a large negative weight has come to an end. A remarkable case of determinism.

OCN flavor is weak. The last 13 years have generally +ve weight, but now four years are zero or mildly –ve. 1981-2000 is mainly negative, but with exceptions (1991). 1959 comes in big positive.

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string MAM2013 thru FMA2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru Apr 2014.

Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Weigt
1956	xx	-5	1966	xx	-10	1976	Xx	1	1986	xx	7	1996	xx	2	2006	xx	-5
1957	xx	8	1967	xx	-2	1977	Xx	-1	1987	xx	-6	1997	xx	9	2007	xx	7
1958	xx	0	1968	xx	-1	1978	Xx	2	1988	xx	-8	1998	xx	-10	2008	xx	-2
1959	xx	16	1969	xx	-8	1979	Xx	3	1989	xx	2	1999	xx	-2	2009	xx	4
1960	xx	-7	1970	xx	-4	1980	Xx	6	1990	xx	1	2000	xx	-17	2010	xx	6
1961	xx	-1	1971	xx	1	1981	Xx	-6	1991	xx	14	2001	xx	-3	2011	xx	3
1962	xx	6	1972	xx	4	1982	Xx	-9	1992	xx	1	2002	xx	1	2012	xx	14
1963	xx	4	1973	xx	7	1983	xx	-11	1993	xx	-2	2003	xx	26	2013	xx	5
1964	xx	-10	1974	xx	8	1984	Xx	-2	1994	xx	-5	2004	xx	1		xx	Xx
1965	xx	-11	1975	xx	-2	1985	Xx	1	1995	xx	-2	2005	xx	6		xx	Xx

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2012, 2003, 1991,1959

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2000,1998,1983,1966,1965,1964

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):

-0.45	-0.4	-0.27	0.02	0.25	0.42	0.41	0.41	0.51	0.68	0.72	0.62	0.49	0.4	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	0.1	0.11	0.11
JFM14		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON14		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON

One month ago:

-0.37	-0.37	-0.34	-0.25	-0.1	0.07	0.19	0.14	0.12	0.2	0.37	0.4	0.34	0.32	0.29	0.3	0.3	0.28	0.3	0.32	0.34
	JFM14		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON14		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ		JAS

Two months ago:

-0.13	-0.17	-0.21	-0.24	-0.16	0.01	0.17	0.32	0.29	0.34	0.43	0.6	0.61	0.54	0.43	0.39	0.35	0.3	0.25	0.26	0.28
NDJ		JFM14		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ		JAS

Three months ago:

-0.13	-0.11	-0.12	-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	0.13	0.27	0.37	0.3	0.3	0.35	0.46	0.42	0.32	0.25	0.22	0.22	0.17	0.1	0.05
	NDJ		JFM14		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ

Four months ago

-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.17	-0.19	-0.16	-0.04	0.14	0.27	0.32	0.25	0.22	0.27	0.38	0.36	0.26	0.18	0.17	0.19	0.18	0.11
SON13		NDJ		JFM14		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON14		NDJ		JFM15		MAM		MJJ

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.