HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was about 0.13 C for MAM2014, the first +ve value is a while.
The CA method, acting on global MAM2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying positive but in the neutral zone for Nino34 thru MJJ2014. By summer 2014 the first several members pass the +0.5C threshold, and all members grow >+0.5 soon thereafter, and three members to +1.0K or more by late 2014, max=1.25K.
Weights have changed from last month, in particular some rather large weights are showing up like 2003 with +0.22 and 2000 with -0.15. People may not 1997 with weight +0.13. The last 10 years have unusually small weights and some older years have unusually high weights (1959 +0.18). There are 7 (5) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10).
1988 (thru December 2012 that particular past situation was labeled 1986, and thru last month it was labelled 1987) is back to -0.13. A remarkable case of determinism, lasting 2 years and ongoing still.
OCN flavor is weak. The last 13 years have generally +ve weight, but three years are zero or mildly –ve. 1981-2000 is mainly negative, but with exceptions (1991,1997). 1959 comes in big positive.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string AMJ2013 thru MAM2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru May 2014.
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
1956 |
xx |
-6 |
1966 |
xx |
-8 |
1976 |
Xx |
0 |
1986 |
xx |
8 |
1996 |
xx |
1 |
2006 |
xx |
-8 |
1957 |
xx |
10 |
1967 |
xx |
-6 |
1977 |
Xx |
-2 |
1987 |
xx |
-4 |
1997 |
xx |
13 |
2007 |
xx |
1 |
1958 |
xx |
0 |
1968 |
xx |
-1 |
1978 |
Xx |
4 |
1988 |
xx |
-13 |
1998 |
xx |
-7 |
2008 |
xx |
-2 |
1959 |
xx |
18 |
1969 |
xx |
-11 |
1979 |
Xx |
0 |
1989 |
xx |
-1 |
1999 |
xx |
-4 |
2009 |
xx |
5 |
1960 |
xx |
-5 |
1970 |
xx |
-2 |
1980 |
Xx |
2 |
1990 |
xx |
2 |
2000 |
xx |
-15 |
2010 |
xx |
9 |
1961 |
xx |
-2 |
1971 |
xx |
-5 |
1981 |
Xx |
-5 |
1991 |
xx |
11 |
2001 |
xx |
-3 |
2011 |
xx |
10 |
1962 |
xx |
4 |
1972 |
xx |
1 |
1982 |
Xx |
-5 |
1992 |
xx |
3 |
2002 |
xx |
4 |
2012 |
xx |
6 |
1963 |
xx |
3 |
1973 |
xx |
7 |
1983 |
xx |
-8 |
1993 |
xx |
-6 |
2003 |
xx |
22 |
2013 |
xx |
6 |
1964 |
xx |
-12 |
1974 |
xx |
11 |
1984 |
Xx |
-3 |
1994 |
xx |
-5 |
2004 |
xx |
2 |
xx |
Xx |
|
1965 |
xx |
-12 |
1975 |
xx |
0 |
1985 |
Xx |
3 |
1995 |
xx |
0 |
2005 |
xx |
7 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2011, 2003, 1997, 1991,1974,1959,1957
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 2000,1988,1966,1965,1964
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
0.13 |
0.16 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.48 |
0.51 |
0.64 |
0.82 |
0.89 |
0.83 |
0.7 |
0.55 |
0.46 |
0.25 |
0.13 |
0.04 |
0.1 |
0.08 |
0.04 |
0 |
-0.02 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JJA |
ASO |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM2015 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
One month ago:
-0.45 |
-0.4 |
-0.27 |
0.02 |
0.25 |
0.42 |
0.41 |
0.41 |
0.51 |
0.68 |
0.72 |
0.62 |
0.49 |
0.4 |
0.31 |
0.19 |
0.11 |
0.07 |
0.1 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
Two month ago:
-0.37 |
-0.37 |
-0.34 |
-0.25 |
-0.1 |
0.07 |
0.19 |
0.14 |
0.12 |
0.2 |
0.37 |
0.4 |
0.34 |
0.32 |
0.29 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.28 |
0.3 |
0.32 |
0.34 |
|
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON14 |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
Three months ago:
-0.13 |
-0.17 |
-0.21 |
-0.24 |
-0.16 |
0.01 |
0.17 |
0.32 |
0.29 |
0.34 |
0.43 |
0.6 |
0.61 |
0.54 |
0.43 |
0.39 |
0.35 |
0.3 |
0.25 |
0.26 |
0.28 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
Four months ago:
-0.13 |
-0.11 |
-0.12 |
-0.13 |
-0.12 |
-0.04 |
0.13 |
0.27 |
0.37 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.35 |
0.46 |
0.42 |
0.32 |
0.25 |
0.22 |
0.22 |
0.17 |
0.1 |
0.05 |
NDJ |
JFM14 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.