HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was positive at 0.28 C for JAS2014, unchanged from JJA.
The CA method, acting on global JJA2014 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members staying positive for the rest of 2014. By OND 2014 all twelve members have exceeded the +0.5C threshold, and 2 or 3 members have risen to +1.0K by late 2014. The forecast has cooled off a little compared to last month.
Weights were stable from last month. There are 7 (5) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10). The last 10-15 years no longer have positive weights only and 5 years in the 1956-1965 decade have unusually high weights (1964 -0.17) – this has never happened before. The weight for 1988 is now less (in abs value) than 0.10. So a run of determinism of 2.5 years may have come to an end.
Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string ASO2013 thru JAS2014). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2013 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2013). Data currently thru Sep 2014.
|
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Wgt |
Year |
IP |
Weigt |
|
1956 |
xx |
-2 |
1966 |
xx |
-8 |
1976 |
Xx |
4 |
1986 |
xx |
1 |
1996 |
xx |
2 |
2006 |
xx |
-6 |
|
1957 |
xx |
16 |
1967 |
xx |
10 |
1977 |
Xx |
4 |
1987 |
xx |
-15 |
1997 |
xx |
9 |
2007 |
xx |
-2 |
|
1958 |
xx |
7 |
1968 |
xx |
7 |
1978 |
Xx |
-5 |
1988 |
xx |
-7 |
1998 |
xx |
-3 |
2008 |
xx |
2 |
|
1959 |
xx |
16 |
1969 |
xx |
-1 |
1979 |
Xx |
4 |
1989 |
xx |
1 |
1999 |
xx |
-12 |
2009 |
xx |
15 |
|
1960 |
xx |
-6 |
1970 |
xx |
-2 |
1980 |
Xx |
-5 |
1990 |
xx |
2 |
2000 |
xx |
-4 |
2010 |
xx |
11 |
|
1961 |
xx |
-14 |
1971 |
xx |
-4 |
1981 |
Xx |
-2 |
1991 |
xx |
10 |
2001 |
xx |
6 |
2011 |
xx |
7 |
|
1962 |
xx |
1 |
1972 |
xx |
-3 |
1982 |
Xx |
-7 |
1992 |
xx |
6 |
2002 |
xx |
6 |
2012 |
xx |
4 |
|
1963 |
xx |
-6 |
1973 |
xx |
-4 |
1983 |
xx |
-6 |
1993 |
xx |
-3 |
2003 |
xx |
6 |
2013 |
xx |
10 |
|
1964 |
xx |
-17 |
1974 |
xx |
6 |
1984 |
Xx |
3 |
1994 |
xx |
-3 |
2004 |
xx |
-3 |
2014 |
xx |
NA |
|
1965 |
xx |
-12 |
1975 |
xx |
0 |
1985 |
Xx |
-7 |
1995 |
xx |
-3 |
2005 |
xx |
5 |
xx |
Xx |
Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2013, 2010, 2009, 1991, 1967,1959,1957
Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1999,1987, 1965,1964,1961
Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean):
|
0.28 |
0.3 |
0.44 |
0.73 |
0.88 |
0.88 |
0.83 |
0.7 |
0.66 |
0.56 |
0.46 |
0.28 |
0.19 |
0.2 |
0.34 |
0.53 |
0.56 |
0.46 |
0.32 |
0.28 |
0.26 |
|
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
JFM16 |
MAM |
One month ago
|
0.29 |
0.31 |
0.35 |
0.58 |
0.82 |
1 |
1.01 |
0.95 |
0.77 |
0.68 |
0.55 |
0.44 |
0.27 |
0.22 |
0.24 |
0.38 |
0.58 |
0.63 |
0.56 |
0.43 |
0.38 |
|
JAS14 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
JFM16 |
Two month ago:
|
0.41 |
0.45 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.78 |
1.01 |
1.16 |
1.16 |
1.06 |
0.83 |
0.67 |
0.47 |
0.34 |
0.16 |
0.12 |
0.12 |
0.19 |
0.29 |
0.33 |
0.29 |
0.21 |
|
MJJ |
JAS14 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
JFM16 |
Three months ago
|
0.37 |
0.4 |
0.51 |
0.56 |
0.63 |
0.81 |
1.05 |
1.15 |
1.1 |
0.96 |
0.74 |
0.59 |
0.39 |
0.21 |
0.11 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.12 |
0.16 |
0.16 |
0.11 |
|
MJJ |
JAS14 |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM15 |
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON15 |
NDJ |
Four months ago:
|
0.13 |
0.16 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.48 |
0.51 |
0.64 |
0.82 |
0.89 |
0.83 |
0.7 |
0.55 |
0.46 |
0.25 |
0.13 |
0.04 |
0.1 |
0.08 |
0.04 |
0 |
-0.02 |
|
MAM |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
JFM |
MAM2015 |
MJJ |
JAS |
SON |
NDJ |
Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.