HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was 2.8 C for NDJ2015/16, unchanged from OND. We appear to have been at the maximum of this warm event in the ND timeframe.

The CA method, acting on global NDJ2015/16 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, has all of its members, staying >1.0 for Nino34 from now thru FMA2016. There is a significant cool down predicted in 2016, ensemble mean -1.6 by fall 2016. The first negatives in some members show up in MJJ.

Weights were stable from last month. There are 9 (5) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10). Of the historically strong warm event years (57, 72, 82, 97) the weights are 0.14, 0.09, 0.10 and 0.14 respectively. Only the weight for 1997 was high previously, but the other warm events have nudged up and 1997 is coming down. The weight for 2014, a marginally failed warm event, continues to be high. Be prepared for big changes in weights as of next month. There will be another completed year of data which in view of co-linearity could change weights. And the weight presently assigned to for example 1997 (the year of mid month of string NDJ) will be found under 1998 ( the year of mid month of string DJF)

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string DJF2014/15 thru NDJ2015/16). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2014 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2014). Data currently thru Jan 2016.

Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Weigt
1956	xx	-4	1966	Xx	-10	1976	Xx	3	1986	xx	6	1996	xx	-9	2006	xx	6
1957	xx	14	1967	Xx	-1	1977	Xx	5	1987	xx	0	1997	xx	14	2007	xx	-3
1958	xx	8	1968	Xx	4	1978	Xx	0	1988	xx	-8	1998	xx	3	2008	xx	-3
1959	xx	16	1969	Xx	-4	1979	Xx	-2	1989	xx	-3	1999	xx	-10	2009	xx	11
1960	xx	-1	1970	Xx	-6	1980	Xx	-5	1990	xx	-1	2000	xx	-2	2010	xx	5
1961	xx	-4	1971	Xx	-8	1981	Xx	-10	1991	xx	3	2001	xx	-4	2011	xx	11
1962	xx	-4	1972	Xx	9	1982	Xx	10	1992	xx	0	2002	xx	2	2012	xx	4
1963	xx	10	1973	Xx	-8	1983	xx	-4	1993	xx	-10	2003	xx	4	2013	xx	9
1964	xx	-17	1974	Xx	0	1984	Xx	-8	1994	xx	11	2004	xx	6	2014	xx	16
1965	xx	-8	1975	Xx	-5	1985	Xx	-2	1995	xx	-1	2005	xx	-1	2015	xx	NA

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2014, 2011,2009,1997, 1994,1982,1963,1959,1957

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1999,1993,1981,1966,1964

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean of 12):

2.8	2.7	2.31	1.47	0.94	0.4	-0.01	-0.4	-0.62	-0.85	-1.01	-1.19	-1.25	-1.6	-1.33	-0.91	-0.56	-0.32	-0.2	-0.11	0.04
NDJ		JFM16		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON16		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ		JAS

One month ago:

2.79	2.78	2.61	2.04	1.45	0.95	0.46	0.09	-0.27	-0.44	-0.61	-0.7	-0.84	-1.36	-1.29	-1.05	-0.7	-0.39	-0.21	-0.11	-0.06
	NDJ		JFM16		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON16		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ

Two months ago:

2.44	2.52	2.68	2.54	2.06	1.48	1	0.5	0.13	-0.2	-0.29	-0.38	-0.43	-1	-1.08	-1.03	-0.85	-0.58	-0.33	-0.22	-0.17
SON15		NDJ		JFM16		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ16		JFM17		MAM		MJJ

Three months ago:

2.2	2.26	2.6	2.96	2.73	2.27	1.66	1.12	0.56	0.13	-0.26	-0.37	-0.46	-0.86	-1	-1.09	-1.03	-0.87	-0.61	-0.39	-0.31
	SON15		NDJ		JFM16		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM		MAM

Four months ago

1.89	1.89	2.14	2.7	2.91	2.76	2.35	1.77	1.23	0.65	0.16	-0.27	-0.41	-0.78	-0.82	-0.89	-0.93	-0.86	-0.72	-0.49	-0.3
JAS		SON15		NDJ		JFM16		MAM		MJJ		JAS16		SON		NDJ		JFM17		MAM

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.