HIGHLIGHT: The seasonal mean NINO3.4 anomaly was -0.5C for JAS2016, down from JJA (-0.3).

The CA method, acting on global JJA2016 seasonal means as latest input, but using a string of global SST going back one year, shows a modest cool down predicted for the rest of 2016. Half the members are colder than -0.5 by late 2016. Even members that look back only 1 season are going negative but all members that look back 4 non-overlapping seasons go negative more.

There are 7 (3) large +ve (-ve) weights in excess of abs(0.10), listed below. The –ve years are all old. But even the +ve years have old representatives.

Weights changed modestly from last month. The weight for 1998, in the aftermath of a previous big warm event is a large 0.26. The weight for 2015 (the string ending with JJA2015) is steady at +0.08. 2014 (a failed warm event of sort) still has a high weight. Some of the positive weight for 2013, 2014 and 2015 is non-ENSO, but interdecadal or global warming like, or OCN with K=3.

Table 1. Inner products (IP; scaled such that the sum of absolute values is 100; not shown) and weights (Wgt multiplied by 100.) of each of the years to construct an analogue to the sequence of 12 consecutive overlapping 3-month periods defined as the base (currently the 12 overlapping seasons string ASO2015 thru JAS2016). Years in the table are labeled by the year of the middle month of the most recent predictor season. Weights for 1956 and 2015 are less (by 50%) because only half the members use these years ("early" members use 1956, "late" members 2015). Data currently thru Sep 2016.

Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Wgt	Year	IP	Weigt
1956	xx	-8	1966	Xx	-6	1976	Xx	-16	1986	xx	2	1996	xx	-3	2006	xx	-3
1957	xx	5	1967	Xx	-11	1977	Xx	-7	1987	xx	-6	1997	xx	-5	2007	xx	2
1958	xx	11	1968	Xx	6	1978	Xx	4	1988	xx	-6	1998	xx	24	2008	xx	-9
1959	xx	13	1969	Xx	4	1979	Xx	1	1989	xx	-3	1999	xx	-6	2009	xx	1
1960	xx	13	1970	Xx	-2	1980	Xx	6	1990	xx	2	2000	xx	2	2010	xx	7
1961	xx	-3	1971	Xx	-7	1981	Xx	-2	1991	xx	-4	2001	xx	7	2011	xx	-7
1962	xx	3	1972	Xx	-4	1982	Xx	-4	1992	xx	3	2002	xx	-4	2012	xx	5
1963	xx	5	1973	Xx	11	1983	xx	1	1993	xx	-2	2003	xx	4	2013	xx	11
1964	xx	1	1974	Xx	-2	1984	Xx	3	1994	xx	-1	2004	xx	-5	2014	xx	11
1965	xx	-15	1975	Xx	-6	1985	Xx	-3	1995	xx	6	2005	xx	4	2015	xx	8

Weights are high +ve (>+0.10) for 2014, 2013,1998,1973,1960,1959,1958

Weights are high -ve (< - 0.10) for 1976,1967,1965

Ens ave Nino34 anomaly forecasts, for leads -3, -2, -1, 0 etc: in plain numbers (ensemble mean of 12):

-0.53	-0.55	-0.61	-0.67	-0.61	-0.52	-0.38	-0.2	-0.06	-0.04	-0.13	-0.21	-0.19	-0.1	-0.15	-0.24	-0.31	-0.34	-0.32	-0.16	-0.05
JAS16		SON		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM18		MAM

One month ago:

-0.32	-0.35	-0.42	-0.5	-0.53	-0.47	-0.38	-0.26	-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	-0.15	-0.23	-0.15	-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	-0.21	-0.23	-0.22	-0.05
	JAS16		SON		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM18

Two months ago

0.04	-0.04	-0.15	-0.24	-0.2	-0.23	-0.2	-0.16	-0.08	-0.01	0.03	0	-0.05	-0.09	0.04	0.18	0.29	0.28	0.24	0.18	0.12
MJJ16		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM18

Three months ago:

0.51	0.39	0.1	-0.2	-0.21	-0.16	-0.19	-0.19	-0.17	-0.12	-0.03	0	-0.01	-0.01	0	0.16	0.32	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.3
	MJJ16		JAS		SON		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON17		NDJ

Four months ago

1.11	0.94	0.49	-0.18	-0.34	-0.39	-0.38	-0.42	-0.43	-0.38	-0.3	-0.17	-0.08	-0.07	-0.06	-0.07	0.04	0.15	0.19	0.13	0.14
MAM16		MJJ		JAS		SON16		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ		JAS17		SON		NDJ

Five months ago:

1.67	1.49	0.97	0.21	-0.18	-0.37	-0.47	-0.51	-0.58	-0.58	-0.51	-0.41	-0.29	-0.27	-0.19	-0.17	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.12
	MAM16		MJJ		JAS		SON16		NDJ		JFM17		MAM		MJJ		JAS		SON

Anomalies relative to 1981-2010 climo.