CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.10 28.54 28.56 28.42 28.31 28.27 28.29 28.24 28.13 27.97 27.88 27.95 28.08 28.08 27.75 27.24 26.74 1 0.40 0.70 0.85 0.99 1.13 1.24 1.33 1.35 1.31 1.16 0.88 0.60 0.38 0.24 0.04 -0.19 -0.44 1 28.07 28.48 28.47 28.31 28.23 28.31 28.47 28.55 28.49 28.35 28.25 28.31 28.46 28.47 28.15 27.65 27.19 2 0.37 0.64 0.75 0.88 1.06 1.28 1.51 1.66 1.67 1.53 1.25 0.96 0.76 0.63 0.44 0.22 0.01 2 28.05 28.41 28.33 28.09 27.96 27.97 28.07 28.10 28.06 27.99 27.96 28.04 28.21 28.27 28.00 27.50 27.01 3 0.35 0.56 0.62 0.67 0.78 0.95 1.11 1.22 1.24 1.18 0.96 0.70 0.51 0.43 0.29 0.08 -0.17 3 28.03 28.40 28.33 28.09 27.90 27.80 27.76 27.68 27.54 27.40 27.35 27.48 27.68 27.78 27.58 27.19 26.73 4 0.33 0.56 0.62 0.67 0.72 0.77 0.80 0.79 0.72 0.58 0.35 0.13 -0.02 -0.06 -0.13 -0.23 -0.44 4 27.95 28.28 28.15 27.88 27.72 27.71 27.76 27.76 27.69 27.56 27.50 27.63 27.87 28.01 27.81 27.38 26.89 5 0.25 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.54 0.68 0.80 0.88 0.88 0.75 0.51 0.28 0.17 0.17 0.10 -0.05 -0.28 5 27.97 28.31 28.20 27.92 27.75 27.78 27.87 27.89 27.78 27.62 27.52 27.61 27.80 27.92 27.71 27.26 26.74 6 0.27 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.57 0.75 0.91 1.01 0.97 0.80 0.52 0.26 0.10 0.07 -0.00 -0.17 -0.44 6 28.00 28.32 28.23 27.98 27.81 27.72 27.64 27.57 27.46 27.38 27.37 27.52 27.74 27.83 27.58 27.15 26.65 7 0.30 0.48 0.52 0.55 0.63 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.65 0.56 0.37 0.18 0.04 -0.02 -0.13 -0.28 -0.52 7 27.96 28.28 28.17 27.93 27.80 27.80 27.81 27.78 27.69 27.60 27.59 27.77 28.02 28.10 27.82 27.34 26.86 8 0.26 0.43 0.46 0.50 0.63 0.77 0.85 0.89 0.87 0.78 0.60 0.43 0.32 0.25 0.11 -0.08 -0.32 8 27.97 28.30 28.20 27.93 27.79 27.79 27.82 27.80 27.70 27.58 27.55 27.69 27.88 27.92 27.63 27.17 26.68 9 0.26 0.45 0.48 0.50 0.61 0.76 0.86 0.91 0.88 0.77 0.55 0.34 0.17 0.07 -0.08 -0.25 -0.50 9 28.00 28.29 28.14 27.88 27.72 27.65 27.60 27.50 27.35 27.21 27.21 27.45 27.76 27.89 27.67 27.25 26.81 10 0.30 0.44 0.43 0.46 0.54 0.62 0.63 0.61 0.53 0.39 0.21 0.10 0.06 0.05 -0.04 -0.18 -0.36 10 27.96 28.27 28.16 27.93 27.81 27.79 27.79 27.75 27.66 27.54 27.52 27.72 28.02 28.13 27.84 27.36 26.89 11 0.26 0.42 0.45 0.50 0.64 0.76 0.83 0.86 0.85 0.72 0.53 0.38 0.32 0.28 0.13 -0.07 -0.29 11 27.95 28.23 28.09 27.80 27.65 27.59 27.58 27.52 27.41 27.29 27.31 27.53 27.83 27.96 27.71 27.28 26.84 12 0.25 0.38 0.38 0.37 0.47 0.56 0.62 0.63 0.60 0.48 0.31 0.19 0.13 0.11 -0.00 -0.15 -0.34 12 ensemble average 28.00 28.34 28.25 28.01 27.87 27.85 27.87 27.85 27.75 27.62 27.58 27.72 27.95 28.03 27.77 27.31 26.84 0.30 0.50 0.54 0.59 0.69 0.82 0.91 0.96 0.93 0.81 0.59 0.38 0.25 0.19 0.06 -0.11 -0.34 climatology 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.94 28.61 28.75 28.67 28.55 28.52 28.62 28.61 28.53 28.28 28.16 28.11 28.10 27.84 27.29 26.67 26.15 1 0.30 0.83 1.16 1.40 1.59 1.73 1.90 1.94 1.91 1.63 1.29 0.85 0.46 0.06 -0.31 -0.59 -0.81 1 27.92 28.50 28.58 28.46 28.40 28.51 28.79 28.89 28.86 28.56 28.36 28.20 28.10 27.82 27.28 26.64 26.09 2 0.29 0.72 0.98 1.19 1.43 1.72 2.07 2.22 2.24 1.91 1.50 0.94 0.46 0.04 -0.32 -0.63 -0.87 2 27.92 28.34 28.27 28.00 27.90 27.87 28.06 28.07 28.08 27.85 27.78 27.79 27.90 27.82 27.38 26.82 26.29 3 0.28 0.56 0.67 0.73 0.93 1.09 1.33 1.40 1.46 1.20 0.91 0.53 0.26 0.04 -0.22 -0.44 -0.67 3 27.95 28.38 28.27 27.98 27.77 27.64 27.63 27.48 27.36 27.13 27.12 27.26 27.44 27.35 26.94 26.44 25.98 4 0.31 0.61 0.67 0.72 0.81 0.85 0.91 0.81 0.73 0.48 0.26 -0.00 -0.19 -0.43 -0.66 -0.82 -0.98 4 27.90 28.26 28.12 27.82 27.65 27.60 27.65 27.55 27.49 27.31 27.32 27.41 27.56 27.50 27.11 26.61 26.12 5 0.26 0.48 0.52 0.55 0.69 0.81 0.93 0.88 0.86 0.66 0.45 0.15 -0.08 -0.27 -0.49 -0.65 -0.84 5 27.94 28.22 28.00 27.62 27.43 27.30 27.31 27.18 27.16 27.00 27.03 27.19 27.39 27.39 26.97 26.51 25.97 6 0.30 0.44 0.40 0.35 0.47 0.51 0.59 0.51 0.54 0.35 0.17 -0.08 -0.25 -0.39 -0.63 -0.75 -0.99 6 27.98 28.36 28.17 27.82 27.58 27.43 27.37 27.24 27.14 27.00 27.05 27.27 27.51 27.46 27.03 26.48 25.96 7 0.34 0.58 0.57 0.56 0.62 0.65 0.65 0.57 0.52 0.35 0.19 0.00 -0.13 -0.32 -0.57 -0.78 -1.00 7 27.93 28.29 28.12 27.81 27.65 27.58 27.60 27.49 27.47 27.35 27.40 27.52 27.69 27.63 27.20 26.67 26.15 8 0.29 0.51 0.52 0.55 0.69 0.80 0.87 0.83 0.85 0.69 0.53 0.26 0.05 -0.15 -0.40 -0.59 -0.81 8 27.95 28.26 28.05 27.67 27.46 27.33 27.32 27.23 27.23 27.08 27.13 27.31 27.51 27.47 27.03 26.50 25.93 9 0.31 0.48 0.45 0.41 0.50 0.54 0.60 0.56 0.60 0.43 0.26 0.04 -0.13 -0.30 -0.57 -0.76 -1.03 9 28.01 28.38 28.17 27.77 27.49 27.33 27.29 27.18 27.05 26.87 26.90 27.20 27.52 27.56 27.18 26.71 26.26 10 0.37 0.60 0.57 0.51 0.53 0.54 0.57 0.51 0.43 0.22 0.04 -0.06 -0.12 -0.22 -0.42 -0.55 -0.70 10 27.92 28.23 28.02 27.65 27.47 27.35 27.35 27.24 27.22 27.14 27.22 27.49 27.77 27.83 27.47 27.00 26.54 11 0.28 0.45 0.43 0.39 0.50 0.57 0.62 0.58 0.59 0.49 0.36 0.22 0.13 0.05 -0.13 -0.27 -0.42 11 27.95 28.22 27.96 27.53 27.29 27.09 27.03 26.91 26.90 26.81 26.87 27.17 27.48 27.57 27.21 26.77 26.25 12 0.31 0.44 0.36 0.27 0.32 0.30 0.31 0.25 0.27 0.16 0.01 -0.10 -0.16 -0.21 -0.38 -0.50 -0.71 12 ensemble average 27.94 28.34 28.21 27.90 27.72 27.63 27.67 27.59 27.54 27.37 27.36 27.49 27.66 27.60 27.17 26.65 26.14 0.30 0.56 0.61 0.64 0.76 0.84 0.95 0.92 0.92 0.72 0.50 0.23 0.03 -0.17 -0.42 -0.61 -0.82 climatology 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96