CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.34 28.31 28.09 27.91 27.85 27.90 27.90 27.87 27.80 27.82 28.01 28.27 28.38 28.12 27.66 27.24 27.06 1 0.49 0.60 0.67 0.74 0.82 0.94 1.01 1.05 0.99 0.82 0.67 0.57 0.54 0.41 0.24 0.06 0.03 1 28.29 28.23 28.04 27.91 27.93 28.06 28.13 28.11 28.02 28.00 28.16 28.40 28.48 28.19 27.70 27.31 27.19 2 0.45 0.51 0.61 0.73 0.90 1.10 1.25 1.29 1.21 1.00 0.81 0.70 0.63 0.48 0.28 0.13 0.16 2 28.28 28.18 27.91 27.72 27.70 27.80 27.86 27.83 27.76 27.76 27.93 28.19 28.31 28.07 27.62 27.18 27.06 3 0.44 0.47 0.48 0.54 0.67 0.84 0.98 1.01 0.94 0.77 0.58 0.49 0.47 0.36 0.19 0.01 0.03 3 28.31 28.19 27.87 27.59 27.44 27.38 27.30 27.21 27.18 27.27 27.58 27.93 28.11 27.96 27.61 27.25 27.04 4 0.47 0.48 0.45 0.42 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.40 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.23 0.27 0.24 0.19 0.07 0.02 4 28.23 28.08 27.77 27.54 27.45 27.46 27.46 27.42 27.36 27.38 27.61 27.93 28.11 27.94 27.55 27.12 26.90 5 0.39 0.37 0.35 0.36 0.42 0.50 0.57 0.61 0.54 0.39 0.26 0.23 0.26 0.23 0.12 -0.05 -0.13 5 28.24 28.11 27.80 27.57 27.50 27.57 27.62 27.57 27.48 27.48 27.65 27.91 28.05 27.86 27.45 26.98 26.77 6 0.40 0.40 0.38 0.39 0.48 0.61 0.73 0.75 0.66 0.48 0.31 0.21 0.20 0.15 0.03 -0.20 -0.26 6 28.26 28.19 27.92 27.76 27.74 27.79 27.77 27.65 27.54 27.49 27.61 27.78 27.82 27.57 27.14 26.70 26.42 7 0.42 0.48 0.50 0.58 0.71 0.82 0.88 0.84 0.72 0.49 0.26 0.08 -0.02 -0.15 -0.29 -0.48 -0.61 7 28.21 28.12 27.87 27.73 27.74 27.81 27.82 27.74 27.63 27.61 27.75 27.98 28.05 27.80 27.37 26.94 26.69 8 0.37 0.41 0.44 0.56 0.72 0.85 0.93 0.93 0.82 0.61 0.40 0.28 0.21 0.09 -0.05 -0.24 -0.34 8 28.23 28.16 27.90 27.76 27.77 27.86 27.87 27.78 27.65 27.60 27.70 27.86 27.87 27.58 27.13 26.67 26.43 9 0.38 0.44 0.48 0.58 0.74 0.90 0.98 0.97 0.84 0.60 0.35 0.16 0.03 -0.13 -0.29 -0.51 -0.60 9 28.25 28.10 27.81 27.67 27.66 27.67 27.61 27.48 27.36 27.34 27.53 27.79 27.90 27.68 27.31 26.92 26.66 10 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.49 0.63 0.71 0.73 0.67 0.54 0.34 0.18 0.09 0.06 -0.03 -0.12 -0.26 -0.37 10 28.22 28.09 27.81 27.68 27.69 27.73 27.71 27.61 27.47 27.45 27.63 27.91 28.01 27.75 27.32 26.89 26.64 11 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.51 0.66 0.77 0.82 0.79 0.65 0.45 0.29 0.21 0.16 0.04 -0.11 -0.28 -0.39 11 28.22 28.10 27.83 27.70 27.69 27.73 27.70 27.60 27.47 27.46 27.63 27.88 27.94 27.66 27.23 26.79 26.55 12 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.52 0.66 0.77 0.82 0.78 0.65 0.46 0.29 0.18 0.09 -0.05 -0.20 -0.38 -0.48 12 ensemble average 28.26 28.15 27.89 27.71 27.68 27.73 27.73 27.66 27.56 27.55 27.73 27.99 28.09 27.85 27.42 27.00 26.78 0.41 0.44 0.46 0.54 0.65 0.77 0.84 0.84 0.74 0.56 0.39 0.29 0.24 0.14 -0.00 -0.18 -0.25 climatology 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.23 28.31 28.18 28.03 27.98 28.08 28.08 28.05 27.91 27.92 28.06 28.19 28.04 27.45 26.82 26.32 26.10 1 0.45 0.71 0.92 1.07 1.19 1.36 1.41 1.42 1.26 1.06 0.80 0.55 0.26 -0.15 -0.45 -0.64 -0.69 1 28.20 28.27 28.19 28.05 28.06 28.20 28.24 28.22 28.06 28.01 28.05 28.11 27.98 27.48 26.95 26.50 26.30 2 0.42 0.68 0.93 1.09 1.28 1.48 1.57 1.60 1.41 1.15 0.79 0.47 0.21 -0.12 -0.31 -0.46 -0.49 2 28.14 27.90 27.58 27.38 27.26 27.30 27.25 27.21 27.04 27.09 27.30 27.54 27.58 27.18 26.69 26.18 25.97 3 0.36 0.31 0.32 0.42 0.47 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.39 0.22 0.04 -0.09 -0.20 -0.42 -0.58 -0.78 -0.82 3 28.28 28.11 27.78 27.54 27.40 27.40 27.27 27.21 27.06 27.12 27.31 27.49 27.37 26.86 26.32 25.85 25.54 4 0.50 0.51 0.51 0.58 0.61 0.68 0.61 0.59 0.41 0.26 0.05 -0.15 -0.41 -0.74 -0.95 -1.11 -1.25 4 28.22 28.07 27.77 27.55 27.47 27.52 27.49 27.48 27.36 27.39 27.53 27.67 27.59 27.13 26.62 26.12 25.84 5 0.44 0.47 0.50 0.58 0.68 0.80 0.82 0.85 0.71 0.52 0.27 0.04 -0.19 -0.46 -0.65 -0.84 -0.94 5 28.20 27.94 27.55 27.34 27.21 27.23 27.13 27.09 26.94 26.99 27.18 27.39 27.38 26.95 26.45 25.92 25.67 6 0.42 0.34 0.29 0.38 0.42 0.50 0.47 0.47 0.29 0.12 -0.08 -0.25 -0.40 -0.65 -0.81 -1.04 -1.12 6 28.27 28.11 27.81 27.62 27.53 27.52 27.39 27.33 27.19 27.21 27.31 27.38 27.18 26.67 26.13 25.65 25.32 7 0.49 0.51 0.54 0.66 0.74 0.80 0.72 0.70 0.54 0.34 0.04 -0.26 -0.59 -0.93 -1.14 -1.31 -1.47 7 28.22 28.04 27.75 27.56 27.50 27.53 27.44 27.43 27.33 27.38 27.50 27.59 27.45 26.96 26.43 25.92 25.62 8 0.44 0.44 0.48 0.60 0.72 0.80 0.77 0.81 0.68 0.52 0.23 -0.05 -0.32 -0.64 -0.84 -1.04 -1.17 8 28.21 27.98 27.63 27.45 27.36 27.39 27.28 27.26 27.10 27.13 27.26 27.41 27.34 26.86 26.33 25.78 25.48 9 0.43 0.38 0.36 0.49 0.57 0.66 0.62 0.63 0.45 0.26 -0.01 -0.23 -0.44 -0.74 -0.93 -1.18 -1.31 9 28.34 28.14 27.79 27.58 27.48 27.45 27.29 27.21 27.07 27.09 27.25 27.41 27.35 26.90 26.44 26.01 25.71 10 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.62 0.70 0.73 0.62 0.59 0.42 0.22 -0.01 -0.23 -0.43 -0.70 -0.82 -0.95 -1.08 10 28.24 28.03 27.67 27.48 27.38 27.38 27.27 27.23 27.13 27.18 27.42 27.64 27.65 27.22 26.74 26.28 26.00 11 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.52 0.60 0.65 0.60 0.61 0.48 0.32 0.16 0.00 -0.13 -0.38 -0.52 -0.68 -0.78 11 28.24 28.00 27.61 27.41 27.27 27.26 27.13 27.07 26.92 26.95 27.19 27.43 27.46 27.05 26.56 26.06 25.78 12 0.46 0.40 0.35 0.45 0.49 0.53 0.46 0.44 0.27 0.08 -0.08 -0.21 -0.32 -0.55 -0.70 -0.90 -1.01 12 ensemble average 28.23 28.07 27.77 27.58 27.49 27.52 27.44 27.40 27.26 27.29 27.45 27.60 27.53 27.06 26.54 26.05 25.78 0.45 0.48 0.51 0.62 0.71 0.80 0.77 0.77 0.61 0.42 0.18 -0.03 -0.25 -0.54 -0.72 -0.91 -1.01 climatology 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79