CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 26.17 26.79 27.43 27.80 27.77 27.60 27.44 27.43 27.54 27.60 27.49 27.33 27.39 27.77 28.14 28.27 28.00 1 -0.82 -0.56 -0.27 -0.04 0.06 0.18 0.26 0.40 0.58 0.71 0.67 0.52 0.39 0.42 0.44 0.43 0.29 1 26.17 26.69 27.28 27.61 27.54 27.29 27.05 26.98 27.08 27.18 27.15 27.12 27.30 27.80 28.22 28.40 28.15 2 -0.83 -0.65 -0.42 -0.23 -0.17 -0.13 -0.13 -0.04 0.12 0.29 0.33 0.30 0.31 0.45 0.52 0.55 0.44 2 26.16 26.74 27.39 27.76 27.69 27.47 27.30 27.33 27.47 27.56 27.53 27.53 27.72 28.14 28.51 28.64 28.39 3 -0.84 -0.60 -0.31 -0.08 -0.02 0.05 0.12 0.30 0.51 0.67 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.80 0.81 0.80 0.67 3 26.14 26.75 27.41 27.78 27.71 27.52 27.41 27.44 27.55 27.55 27.42 27.26 27.37 27.82 28.28 28.43 28.14 4 -0.86 -0.59 -0.29 -0.07 -0.01 0.10 0.23 0.41 0.59 0.66 0.60 0.44 0.37 0.47 0.58 0.58 0.43 4 26.14 26.75 27.45 27.89 27.88 27.72 27.61 27.70 27.90 28.04 28.05 27.98 28.10 28.45 28.78 28.83 28.50 5 -0.85 -0.59 -0.25 0.04 0.17 0.29 0.44 0.67 0.94 1.15 1.24 1.17 1.10 1.10 1.08 0.98 0.79 5 26.13 26.73 27.41 27.83 27.79 27.60 27.49 27.56 27.74 27.86 27.87 27.85 28.01 28.39 28.75 28.84 28.55 6 -0.86 -0.62 -0.29 -0.02 0.08 0.18 0.31 0.53 0.78 0.97 1.06 1.03 1.01 1.04 1.05 0.99 0.83 6 26.14 26.73 27.38 27.77 27.71 27.54 27.43 27.46 27.56 27.54 27.44 27.30 27.43 27.90 28.36 28.52 28.20 7 -0.86 -0.62 -0.32 -0.08 -0.00 0.11 0.26 0.43 0.59 0.66 0.62 0.48 0.43 0.56 0.66 0.68 0.49 7 26.15 26.77 27.48 27.92 27.91 27.75 27.65 27.75 27.96 28.08 28.08 27.98 28.08 28.44 28.76 28.83 28.52 8 -0.84 -0.58 -0.22 0.08 0.20 0.33 0.48 0.72 0.99 1.20 1.26 1.16 1.08 1.09 1.06 0.99 0.81 8 26.15 26.75 27.44 27.88 27.82 27.61 27.47 27.57 27.79 27.93 27.93 27.88 28.03 28.43 28.77 28.88 28.60 9 -0.85 -0.60 -0.26 0.03 0.11 0.18 0.30 0.54 0.83 1.04 1.11 1.07 1.04 1.08 1.07 1.03 0.89 9 26.18 26.76 27.42 27.84 27.81 27.59 27.39 27.39 27.51 27.53 27.42 27.28 27.42 27.91 28.34 28.48 28.17 10 -0.81 -0.59 -0.28 -0.00 0.10 0.16 0.21 0.36 0.54 0.65 0.61 0.47 0.42 0.56 0.64 0.64 0.46 10 26.22 26.79 27.48 27.94 27.92 27.71 27.51 27.56 27.74 27.86 27.84 27.77 27.94 28.36 28.68 28.75 28.42 11 -0.77 -0.56 -0.22 0.10 0.21 0.29 0.34 0.53 0.78 0.97 1.03 0.96 0.94 1.01 0.98 0.90 0.71 11 26.21 26.77 27.43 27.88 27.84 27.61 27.37 27.40 27.56 27.66 27.62 27.57 27.76 28.22 28.61 28.76 28.54 12 -0.79 -0.58 -0.27 0.04 0.13 0.18 0.19 0.37 0.60 0.78 0.80 0.75 0.77 0.88 0.91 0.92 0.82 12 ensemble average 26.16 26.75 27.42 27.82 27.78 27.58 27.43 27.46 27.62 27.70 27.65 27.57 27.71 28.14 28.52 28.64 28.35 -0.83 -0.59 -0.28 -0.02 0.07 0.16 0.25 0.43 0.66 0.81 0.84 0.75 0.72 0.79 0.82 0.79 0.63 climatology 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 26.02 26.62 27.24 27.63 27.63 27.47 27.27 27.31 27.47 27.70 27.76 27.76 27.84 28.12 28.26 28.14 27.64 1 -0.84 -0.65 -0.40 -0.15 0.04 0.21 0.31 0.52 0.75 1.03 1.14 1.11 0.98 0.85 0.62 0.36 0.04 1 26.01 26.65 27.32 27.76 27.78 27.61 27.39 27.37 27.50 27.70 27.78 27.82 27.96 28.25 28.39 28.31 27.83 2 -0.86 -0.62 -0.32 -0.02 0.18 0.35 0.42 0.58 0.78 1.03 1.15 1.17 1.09 0.99 0.76 0.53 0.23 2 26.02 26.72 27.40 27.77 27.69 27.48 27.32 27.34 27.49 27.59 27.66 27.70 27.90 28.22 28.41 28.39 27.94 3 -0.85 -0.55 -0.24 -0.01 0.10 0.21 0.35 0.55 0.77 0.92 1.03 1.05 1.03 0.95 0.77 0.62 0.34 3 25.97 26.60 27.21 27.59 27.54 27.40 27.26 27.30 27.39 27.50 27.47 27.44 27.52 27.85 28.03 27.98 27.56 4 -0.90 -0.66 -0.42 -0.19 -0.06 0.13 0.30 0.51 0.66 0.83 0.85 0.79 0.66 0.58 0.39 0.20 -0.04 4 25.98 26.62 27.34 27.84 27.90 27.80 27.68 27.78 28.00 28.22 28.33 28.33 28.41 28.61 28.68 28.55 28.06 5 -0.88 -0.64 -0.30 0.06 0.30 0.53 0.72 0.99 1.28 1.55 1.70 1.68 1.54 1.35 1.04 0.77 0.46 5 26.00 26.66 27.34 27.73 27.68 27.52 27.40 27.47 27.65 27.79 27.88 27.91 28.05 28.35 28.54 28.55 28.14 6 -0.87 -0.60 -0.30 -0.05 0.08 0.26 0.44 0.68 0.93 1.12 1.25 1.26 1.18 1.08 0.90 0.77 0.54 6 25.98 26.59 27.19 27.57 27.51 27.36 27.18 27.17 27.22 27.26 27.19 27.15 27.31 27.74 28.03 28.06 27.69 7 -0.88 -0.67 -0.44 -0.21 -0.09 0.10 0.22 0.38 0.49 0.59 0.56 0.50 0.45 0.48 0.39 0.28 0.09 7 26.03 26.66 27.34 27.79 27.79 27.64 27.49 27.55 27.76 27.93 28.00 28.00 28.14 28.46 28.63 28.60 28.19 8 -0.84 -0.61 -0.30 0.01 0.19 0.38 0.53 0.76 1.04 1.26 1.38 1.35 1.28 1.19 0.99 0.82 0.59 8 26.04 26.69 27.35 27.73 27.63 27.43 27.27 27.37 27.59 27.76 27.82 27.81 27.97 28.32 28.57 28.64 28.29 9 -0.83 -0.58 -0.29 -0.05 0.03 0.16 0.31 0.58 0.87 1.09 1.19 1.16 1.10 1.06 0.94 0.86 0.69 9 26.06 26.66 27.26 27.61 27.49 27.29 27.00 26.96 27.00 27.06 27.02 26.99 27.20 27.62 27.94 28.00 27.68 10 -0.80 -0.60 -0.38 -0.16 -0.11 0.02 0.04 0.17 0.28 0.39 0.40 0.34 0.33 0.36 0.30 0.22 0.09 10 26.11 26.71 27.33 27.74 27.64 27.41 27.14 27.13 27.25 27.36 27.42 27.45 27.69 28.08 28.34 28.38 28.04 11 -0.75 -0.56 -0.31 -0.04 0.04 0.15 0.18 0.34 0.53 0.69 0.80 0.80 0.83 0.82 0.70 0.60 0.45 11 26.09 26.70 27.32 27.67 27.52 27.27 26.99 27.00 27.13 27.21 27.23 27.21 27.43 27.87 28.22 28.40 28.16 12 -0.77 -0.56 -0.32 -0.11 -0.08 0.00 0.03 0.22 0.41 0.55 0.60 0.56 0.57 0.61 0.58 0.62 0.56 12 ensemble average 26.03 26.66 27.30 27.70 27.65 27.47 27.28 27.31 27.46 27.59 27.63 27.63 27.78 28.12 28.34 28.33 27.93 -0.84 -0.61 -0.33 -0.08 0.05 0.21 0.32 0.52 0.73 0.92 1.01 0.98 0.92 0.86 0.70 0.55 0.34 climatology 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60