CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.89 27.76 27.63 27.65 27.86 28.04 28.04 27.95 27.99 28.32 28.63 28.70 28.43 28.04 27.73 27.55 27.43 1 0.18 0.33 0.45 0.63 0.90 1.15 1.22 1.13 1.00 0.97 0.93 0.86 0.71 0.61 0.56 0.52 0.47 1 27.89 27.71 27.57 27.62 27.91 28.15 28.17 28.04 27.98 28.13 28.27 28.30 28.08 27.72 27.34 27.08 26.87 2 0.17 0.28 0.39 0.59 0.95 1.26 1.36 1.22 0.98 0.78 0.57 0.46 0.37 0.29 0.16 0.05 -0.09 2 27.87 27.71 27.54 27.57 27.80 28.03 28.06 27.99 27.95 28.07 28.15 28.14 27.94 27.61 27.23 26.91 26.61 3 0.16 0.28 0.36 0.54 0.84 1.14 1.25 1.17 0.96 0.72 0.45 0.30 0.22 0.19 0.06 -0.12 -0.35 3 27.89 27.73 27.59 27.68 27.95 28.18 28.17 28.03 27.96 28.23 28.48 28.57 28.27 27.81 27.37 27.06 26.88 4 0.18 0.30 0.41 0.65 0.98 1.29 1.36 1.21 0.97 0.88 0.78 0.73 0.55 0.38 0.19 0.03 -0.08 4 27.88 27.67 27.49 27.54 27.79 28.03 28.07 27.95 27.90 28.09 28.28 28.35 28.07 27.66 27.21 26.91 26.74 5 0.17 0.24 0.32 0.51 0.83 1.14 1.25 1.13 0.90 0.75 0.58 0.50 0.36 0.23 0.03 -0.12 -0.22 5 27.87 27.72 27.59 27.66 27.89 28.09 28.14 28.09 28.09 28.28 28.44 28.50 28.22 27.78 27.32 27.01 26.84 6 0.16 0.29 0.42 0.63 0.93 1.20 1.33 1.27 1.09 0.93 0.74 0.66 0.51 0.36 0.14 -0.02 -0.12 6 27.88 27.65 27.46 27.53 27.81 28.08 28.11 27.96 27.92 28.23 28.57 28.67 28.36 27.92 27.52 27.25 27.10 7 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.50 0.85 1.19 1.29 1.15 0.92 0.88 0.87 0.82 0.65 0.50 0.35 0.22 0.14 7 27.89 27.68 27.49 27.56 27.83 28.09 28.16 28.06 28.05 28.28 28.49 28.54 28.26 27.86 27.42 27.13 26.99 8 0.18 0.25 0.32 0.53 0.87 1.20 1.34 1.24 1.05 0.93 0.79 0.69 0.55 0.43 0.24 0.10 0.03 8 27.88 27.70 27.54 27.61 27.87 28.10 28.18 28.12 28.15 28.39 28.62 28.67 28.40 27.97 27.51 27.19 27.03 9 0.17 0.27 0.37 0.58 0.91 1.22 1.36 1.30 1.16 1.05 0.92 0.83 0.69 0.54 0.33 0.16 0.07 9 27.86 27.65 27.50 27.58 27.82 28.02 28.00 27.83 27.81 28.15 28.50 28.62 28.28 27.81 27.39 27.14 27.02 10 0.15 0.23 0.33 0.55 0.86 1.13 1.18 1.02 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.77 0.56 0.39 0.21 0.11 0.06 10 27.88 27.69 27.54 27.61 27.87 28.10 28.14 28.02 28.00 28.25 28.49 28.57 28.30 27.91 27.51 27.28 27.19 11 0.17 0.26 0.36 0.58 0.91 1.22 1.33 1.20 1.01 0.91 0.79 0.73 0.59 0.49 0.33 0.25 0.23 11 27.88 27.70 27.57 27.65 27.91 28.13 28.20 28.13 28.17 28.42 28.66 28.73 28.47 28.05 27.62 27.33 27.19 12 0.16 0.28 0.39 0.62 0.95 1.25 1.38 1.32 1.17 1.08 0.96 0.88 0.75 0.63 0.44 0.30 0.23 12 ensemble average 27.88 27.70 27.54 27.61 27.86 28.09 28.12 28.01 28.00 28.24 28.47 28.53 28.26 27.85 27.43 27.15 26.99 0.17 0.27 0.37 0.58 0.90 1.20 1.30 1.20 1.00 0.89 0.76 0.69 0.54 0.42 0.25 0.12 0.03 climatology 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.75 27.69 27.57 27.68 27.96 28.28 28.44 28.44 28.42 28.55 28.57 28.42 27.93 27.45 27.00 26.73 26.57 1 0.15 0.43 0.61 0.89 1.24 1.62 1.82 1.79 1.55 1.28 0.93 0.64 0.33 0.19 0.04 -0.06 -0.15 1 27.77 27.70 27.58 27.64 27.86 28.13 28.22 28.11 28.03 28.14 28.20 28.12 27.80 27.46 27.06 26.78 26.59 2 0.17 0.43 0.62 0.85 1.14 1.47 1.59 1.46 1.17 0.88 0.56 0.34 0.20 0.20 0.10 -0.01 -0.13 2 27.73 27.57 27.40 27.42 27.61 27.83 27.88 27.80 27.82 28.05 28.25 28.31 28.09 27.80 27.42 27.17 27.02 3 0.13 0.31 0.44 0.63 0.88 1.16 1.25 1.15 0.96 0.79 0.61 0.53 0.49 0.54 0.46 0.38 0.29 3 27.79 27.64 27.49 27.64 27.92 28.25 28.39 28.36 28.34 28.44 28.43 28.26 27.76 27.26 26.78 26.49 26.36 4 0.19 0.38 0.53 0.85 1.20 1.58 1.76 1.71 1.48 1.17 0.80 0.48 0.16 -0.01 -0.19 -0.29 -0.36 4 27.78 27.68 27.56 27.70 27.98 28.30 28.39 28.31 28.23 28.33 28.34 28.20 27.75 27.27 26.78 26.45 26.28 5 0.18 0.41 0.60 0.91 1.25 1.63 1.76 1.66 1.37 1.07 0.70 0.42 0.15 0.01 -0.18 -0.34 -0.44 5 27.72 27.53 27.39 27.51 27.75 28.00 28.07 28.04 28.08 28.27 28.41 28.40 28.04 27.60 27.12 26.82 26.72 6 0.13 0.27 0.43 0.72 1.02 1.33 1.44 1.39 1.21 1.01 0.78 0.62 0.44 0.33 0.15 0.03 -0.00 6 27.77 27.61 27.44 27.55 27.77 28.06 28.16 28.11 28.09 28.25 28.32 28.21 27.77 27.35 26.93 26.68 26.53 7 0.17 0.35 0.48 0.76 1.05 1.39 1.53 1.46 1.23 0.99 0.68 0.43 0.17 0.09 -0.03 -0.11 -0.19 7 27.77 27.61 27.47 27.60 27.88 28.21 28.32 28.27 28.22 28.36 28.43 28.33 27.91 27.44 26.96 26.60 26.42 8 0.17 0.35 0.51 0.82 1.16 1.54 1.70 1.62 1.36 1.10 0.79 0.55 0.31 0.18 -0.01 -0.18 -0.30 8 27.71 27.51 27.37 27.48 27.73 27.98 28.08 28.05 28.10 28.32 28.49 28.50 28.16 27.75 27.30 27.02 26.93 9 0.11 0.24 0.41 0.69 1.00 1.31 1.45 1.40 1.23 1.06 0.85 0.72 0.56 0.48 0.33 0.23 0.20 9 27.74 27.57 27.41 27.53 27.75 28.03 28.09 28.04 28.03 28.25 28.36 28.30 27.85 27.40 26.94 26.68 26.56 10 0.14 0.31 0.45 0.75 1.03 1.36 1.47 1.39 1.17 0.98 0.73 0.52 0.25 0.13 -0.02 -0.11 -0.16 10 27.75 27.59 27.43 27.55 27.84 28.15 28.25 28.19 28.19 28.38 28.51 28.46 28.08 27.64 27.19 26.88 26.76 11 0.15 0.33 0.47 0.76 1.12 1.48 1.63 1.54 1.33 1.11 0.87 0.68 0.49 0.38 0.23 0.10 0.03 11 27.69 27.47 27.31 27.41 27.68 27.92 28.02 27.98 28.06 28.33 28.55 28.62 28.32 27.93 27.52 27.28 27.25 12 0.09 0.21 0.35 0.62 0.96 1.25 1.39 1.33 1.20 1.07 0.92 0.84 0.72 0.67 0.56 0.49 0.52 12 ensemble average 27.75 27.60 27.45 27.56 27.81 28.09 28.19 28.14 28.14 28.31 28.41 28.34 27.95 27.53 27.08 26.80 26.67 0.15 0.33 0.49 0.77 1.09 1.43 1.57 1.49 1.27 1.04 0.77 0.57 0.36 0.27 0.12 0.01 -0.06 climatology 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72