CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.44 27.31 27.34 27.36 27.25 27.10 27.10 27.44 27.82 28.06 27.97 27.69 27.33 27.08 26.99 26.95 26.93 1 0.27 0.29 0.38 0.48 0.43 0.28 0.10 0.09 0.12 0.21 0.25 0.27 0.15 0.05 0.03 0.07 0.11 1 27.42 27.44 27.63 27.80 27.77 27.62 27.58 27.83 28.13 28.30 28.20 27.98 27.67 27.35 27.16 27.07 27.12 2 0.24 0.41 0.66 0.91 0.95 0.81 0.59 0.48 0.43 0.46 0.49 0.56 0.49 0.33 0.20 0.19 0.30 2 27.45 27.49 27.67 27.82 27.76 27.57 27.47 27.66 27.88 28.02 27.92 27.68 27.32 26.95 26.76 26.70 26.80 3 0.28 0.46 0.70 0.94 0.95 0.76 0.48 0.32 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.26 0.14 -0.08 -0.20 -0.19 -0.02 3 27.48 27.52 27.73 27.92 27.93 27.83 27.82 28.07 28.31 28.37 28.12 27.75 27.38 27.06 26.76 26.54 26.51 4 0.31 0.49 0.77 1.04 1.11 1.01 0.82 0.72 0.61 0.53 0.41 0.33 0.20 0.03 -0.20 -0.35 -0.31 4 27.46 27.53 27.76 27.94 27.92 27.81 27.80 28.06 28.30 28.41 28.23 27.97 27.66 27.39 27.16 27.01 27.00 5 0.28 0.50 0.80 1.05 1.11 0.99 0.80 0.71 0.60 0.56 0.51 0.54 0.48 0.36 0.20 0.12 0.19 5 27.47 27.51 27.71 27.87 27.85 27.74 27.71 27.91 28.09 28.16 27.98 27.68 27.33 27.00 26.73 26.53 26.51 6 0.29 0.48 0.74 0.98 1.04 0.92 0.72 0.56 0.39 0.32 0.27 0.25 0.15 -0.03 -0.23 -0.36 -0.31 6 27.48 27.50 27.73 27.95 27.94 27.80 27.77 28.05 28.30 28.34 28.03 27.64 27.26 26.97 26.74 26.59 26.67 7 0.31 0.48 0.77 1.06 1.12 0.98 0.77 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.32 0.22 0.09 -0.06 -0.23 -0.29 -0.14 7 27.45 27.49 27.70 27.89 27.89 27.78 27.78 28.06 28.29 28.34 28.07 27.73 27.37 27.10 26.93 26.86 26.94 8 0.28 0.46 0.74 1.01 1.08 0.97 0.79 0.71 0.59 0.50 0.36 0.31 0.19 0.08 -0.03 -0.03 0.12 8 27.46 27.51 27.71 27.88 27.88 27.78 27.80 28.05 28.28 28.35 28.13 27.77 27.37 27.07 26.89 26.81 26.86 9 0.29 0.48 0.75 0.99 1.06 0.97 0.80 0.70 0.57 0.51 0.41 0.34 0.19 0.04 -0.07 -0.08 0.04 9 27.49 27.54 27.76 27.96 27.95 27.81 27.79 28.08 28.36 28.42 28.11 27.71 27.33 27.03 26.82 26.71 26.80 10 0.31 0.51 0.80 1.07 1.14 1.00 0.79 0.73 0.66 0.57 0.40 0.29 0.15 -0.00 -0.14 -0.17 -0.01 10 27.49 27.56 27.78 27.98 28.02 27.94 27.97 28.25 28.52 28.58 28.32 27.98 27.63 27.37 27.22 27.18 27.28 11 0.31 0.53 0.82 1.10 1.21 1.12 0.97 0.91 0.82 0.73 0.61 0.56 0.45 0.34 0.25 0.29 0.46 11 27.47 27.53 27.74 27.94 27.98 27.90 27.94 28.20 28.45 28.53 28.29 27.93 27.52 27.22 27.04 26.98 27.06 12 0.29 0.50 0.78 1.05 1.16 1.09 0.94 0.86 0.75 0.68 0.58 0.50 0.35 0.19 0.08 0.09 0.24 12 ensemble average 27.46 27.49 27.69 27.86 27.85 27.72 27.71 27.97 28.23 28.32 28.11 27.79 27.43 27.13 26.93 26.83 26.87 0.29 0.46 0.73 0.97 1.03 0.91 0.71 0.63 0.53 0.48 0.40 0.37 0.25 0.10 -0.03 -0.06 0.06 climatology 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.27 27.18 27.28 27.50 27.54 27.46 27.39 27.63 27.81 27.85 27.52 27.11 26.62 26.20 25.93 25.73 25.77 1 0.31 0.39 0.56 0.83 0.92 0.81 0.52 0.36 0.17 0.07 -0.08 -0.16 -0.34 -0.58 -0.79 -0.94 -0.86 1 27.24 27.23 27.39 27.57 27.62 27.58 27.59 27.84 28.01 28.06 27.78 27.52 27.22 26.97 26.89 26.88 27.01 2 0.28 0.44 0.67 0.90 1.00 0.93 0.73 0.58 0.38 0.28 0.19 0.26 0.26 0.18 0.17 0.21 0.39 2 27.26 27.28 27.46 27.69 27.69 27.61 27.55 27.79 27.99 28.08 27.80 27.50 27.19 26.95 26.92 26.91 27.04 3 0.30 0.49 0.73 1.02 1.07 0.96 0.68 0.53 0.35 0.30 0.20 0.23 0.23 0.17 0.19 0.24 0.42 3 27.29 27.33 27.52 27.79 27.92 27.92 27.92 28.10 28.21 28.14 27.72 27.30 26.85 26.53 26.30 26.14 26.20 4 0.33 0.54 0.80 1.13 1.29 1.27 1.05 0.84 0.57 0.36 0.12 0.04 -0.11 -0.26 -0.43 -0.53 -0.42 4 27.29 27.33 27.53 27.77 27.85 27.81 27.81 28.02 28.14 28.07 27.67 27.29 26.91 26.62 26.45 26.32 26.43 5 0.33 0.54 0.81 1.10 1.23 1.16 0.94 0.76 0.50 0.29 0.07 0.03 -0.05 -0.16 -0.28 -0.34 -0.20 5 27.27 27.35 27.53 27.73 27.75 27.68 27.66 27.92 28.15 28.20 27.86 27.47 27.09 26.83 26.71 26.60 26.65 6 0.31 0.56 0.81 1.06 1.12 1.02 0.80 0.66 0.51 0.42 0.26 0.20 0.13 0.04 -0.01 -0.06 0.02 6 27.29 27.35 27.56 27.85 27.94 27.89 27.87 28.06 28.13 28.03 27.57 27.15 26.69 26.37 26.15 26.03 26.15 7 0.33 0.56 0.84 1.18 1.32 1.24 1.01 0.79 0.50 0.25 -0.03 -0.12 -0.28 -0.42 -0.57 -0.64 -0.48 7 27.29 27.35 27.56 27.83 27.93 27.89 27.91 28.13 28.24 28.16 27.73 27.32 26.88 26.58 26.42 26.34 26.46 8 0.33 0.56 0.84 1.16 1.30 1.24 1.04 0.87 0.60 0.38 0.13 0.05 -0.08 -0.21 -0.30 -0.32 -0.17 8 27.27 27.37 27.58 27.78 27.82 27.76 27.79 28.04 28.24 28.27 27.90 27.47 27.04 26.77 26.69 26.63 26.73 9 0.31 0.59 0.86 1.11 1.19 1.11 0.93 0.78 0.60 0.49 0.30 0.20 0.07 -0.02 -0.04 -0.04 0.10 9 27.31 27.40 27.60 27.88 27.95 27.91 27.86 28.04 28.11 28.01 27.57 27.17 26.72 26.39 26.17 26.08 26.20 10 0.34 0.61 0.88 1.21 1.33 1.26 1.00 0.77 0.47 0.23 -0.03 -0.09 -0.24 -0.39 -0.56 -0.59 -0.43 10 27.32 27.42 27.66 27.93 28.05 28.03 28.05 28.26 28.36 28.30 27.88 27.47 27.03 26.74 26.60 26.55 26.65 11 0.36 0.63 0.93 1.27 1.43 1.38 1.19 1.00 0.73 0.52 0.28 0.21 0.07 -0.05 -0.13 -0.11 0.03 11 27.29 27.39 27.61 27.82 27.89 27.86 27.90 28.15 28.34 28.38 28.02 27.60 27.19 26.93 26.86 26.85 26.95 12 0.33 0.61 0.88 1.15 1.27 1.21 1.03 0.89 0.71 0.60 0.42 0.34 0.22 0.14 0.14 0.18 0.32 12 ensemble average 27.28 27.33 27.52 27.76 27.83 27.78 27.77 28.00 28.14 28.13 27.75 27.36 26.95 26.66 26.51 26.42 26.52 0.32 0.54 0.80 1.09 1.20 1.13 0.91 0.74 0.51 0.35 0.15 0.10 -0.01 -0.13 -0.22 -0.25 -0.11 climatology 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62