CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.69 27.61 27.68 27.99 28.32 28.40 28.12 27.74 27.46 27.33 27.30 27.30 27.28 27.28 27.46 27.86 28.24 1 0.87 0.79 0.69 0.65 0.62 0.55 0.41 0.32 0.29 0.30 0.34 0.41 0.46 0.47 0.46 0.51 0.54 1 27.73 27.59 27.61 27.87 28.18 28.22 27.92 27.55 27.34 27.28 27.34 27.43 27.48 27.57 27.72 28.11 28.50 2 0.91 0.77 0.61 0.52 0.48 0.38 0.21 0.12 0.17 0.25 0.38 0.54 0.67 0.75 0.73 0.77 0.80 2 27.69 27.52 27.53 27.86 28.29 28.51 28.29 27.92 27.65 27.57 27.68 27.87 28.00 28.07 28.13 28.35 28.53 3 0.88 0.70 0.53 0.51 0.59 0.67 0.58 0.49 0.48 0.54 0.72 0.98 1.19 1.26 1.13 1.00 0.83 3 27.70 27.68 27.74 28.09 28.42 28.53 28.29 27.93 27.62 27.39 27.28 27.21 27.18 27.20 27.38 27.76 28.11 4 0.88 0.86 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.69 0.57 0.50 0.45 0.36 0.31 0.33 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.41 0.41 4 27.72 27.60 27.56 27.79 28.10 28.25 28.10 27.82 27.59 27.40 27.38 27.45 27.55 27.61 27.73 28.01 28.26 5 0.90 0.79 0.56 0.44 0.40 0.41 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.37 0.42 0.56 0.73 0.79 0.74 0.66 0.56 5 27.71 27.59 27.59 27.89 28.28 28.51 28.37 28.09 27.83 27.64 27.67 27.80 27.95 28.03 28.08 28.22 28.33 6 0.90 0.77 0.59 0.55 0.57 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.65 0.61 0.71 0.91 1.13 1.21 1.08 0.87 0.63 6 27.73 27.73 27.84 28.23 28.54 28.59 28.30 27.96 27.70 27.47 27.33 27.21 27.16 27.20 27.37 27.75 28.10 7 0.91 0.92 0.84 0.89 0.84 0.74 0.59 0.53 0.52 0.44 0.36 0.33 0.34 0.38 0.38 0.40 0.40 7 27.76 27.65 27.64 27.89 28.14 28.25 28.08 27.80 27.56 27.39 27.35 27.36 27.41 27.49 27.67 27.99 28.32 8 0.94 0.83 0.64 0.54 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.36 0.39 0.47 0.59 0.67 0.67 0.64 0.62 8 27.76 27.64 27.65 27.94 28.23 28.39 28.26 28.03 27.80 27.62 27.57 27.59 27.67 27.76 27.89 28.10 28.33 9 0.94 0.82 0.65 0.59 0.53 0.55 0.55 0.61 0.63 0.59 0.61 0.70 0.86 0.94 0.89 0.75 0.63 9 27.78 27.72 27.79 28.20 28.54 28.67 28.38 28.03 27.73 27.52 27.39 27.37 27.46 27.62 27.79 28.06 28.34 10 0.96 0.91 0.79 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.67 0.60 0.55 0.49 0.43 0.49 0.64 0.80 0.79 0.71 0.64 10 27.82 27.72 27.70 27.95 28.18 28.27 28.01 27.65 27.32 27.10 27.01 27.03 27.14 27.34 27.60 27.97 28.35 11 1.00 0.90 0.70 0.60 0.48 0.43 0.30 0.23 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.14 0.33 0.53 0.61 0.62 0.65 11 27.80 27.71 27.73 28.03 28.31 28.45 28.22 27.89 27.56 27.34 27.28 27.33 27.46 27.65 27.85 28.14 28.43 12 0.98 0.90 0.74 0.68 0.61 0.61 0.51 0.47 0.39 0.31 0.32 0.44 0.65 0.83 0.86 0.79 0.73 12 ensemble average 27.74 27.65 27.67 27.98 28.29 28.42 28.20 27.87 27.60 27.42 27.38 27.41 27.48 27.57 27.72 28.02 28.32 0.92 0.83 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.58 0.48 0.44 0.42 0.39 0.42 0.53 0.66 0.75 0.73 0.68 0.62 climatology 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.46 27.32 27.40 27.75 28.10 28.20 27.90 27.50 27.15 27.03 27.10 27.22 27.23 27.23 27.37 27.78 28.07 1 0.83 0.67 0.54 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.30 0.24 0.19 0.25 0.38 0.55 0.60 0.58 0.51 0.51 0.43 1 27.48 27.33 27.37 27.67 27.93 27.97 27.65 27.26 26.97 26.93 27.04 27.18 27.23 27.33 27.53 27.94 28.22 2 0.85 0.68 0.51 0.41 0.29 0.19 0.05 -0.00 0.01 0.14 0.32 0.51 0.61 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.58 2 27.45 27.31 27.35 27.73 28.08 28.30 28.15 27.96 27.78 27.81 28.02 28.22 28.35 28.32 28.32 28.39 28.36 3 0.83 0.66 0.48 0.47 0.44 0.53 0.55 0.69 0.82 1.02 1.29 1.56 1.72 1.67 1.46 1.13 0.73 3 27.47 27.30 27.33 27.66 28.00 28.12 27.81 27.43 27.04 26.81 26.78 26.78 26.86 26.98 27.24 27.70 28.06 4 0.84 0.65 0.46 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.21 0.17 0.08 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.24 0.32 0.37 0.43 0.42 4 27.51 27.36 27.36 27.66 27.94 28.07 27.81 27.48 27.18 26.99 27.06 27.16 27.32 27.40 27.61 27.97 28.25 5 0.88 0.71 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.29 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.34 0.49 0.69 0.75 0.75 0.71 0.61 5 27.49 27.36 27.38 27.75 28.09 28.30 28.07 27.78 27.54 27.43 27.55 27.68 27.85 27.86 27.96 28.18 28.31 6 0.86 0.71 0.52 0.48 0.45 0.52 0.47 0.52 0.58 0.64 0.83 1.01 1.22 1.21 1.10 0.92 0.67 6 27.53 27.45 27.51 27.82 28.09 28.15 27.80 27.43 27.05 26.82 26.74 26.70 26.77 26.90 27.20 27.67 28.02 7 0.90 0.80 0.64 0.55 0.45 0.37 0.20 0.17 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.03 0.15 0.25 0.33 0.41 0.38 7 27.58 27.43 27.40 27.66 27.87 27.95 27.68 27.36 27.02 26.81 26.79 26.80 26.89 27.01 27.30 27.77 28.19 8 0.96 0.78 0.54 0.39 0.24 0.17 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.02 0.06 0.13 0.27 0.36 0.43 0.51 0.55 8 27.57 27.44 27.45 27.77 28.06 28.21 27.98 27.70 27.42 27.25 27.28 27.30 27.37 27.40 27.56 27.87 28.12 9 0.94 0.79 0.58 0.51 0.42 0.43 0.38 0.43 0.46 0.47 0.56 0.63 0.75 0.75 0.70 0.61 0.48 9 27.58 27.51 27.56 27.83 28.06 28.08 27.71 27.31 26.89 26.66 26.59 26.61 26.75 26.96 27.30 27.76 28.11 10 0.95 0.86 0.69 0.57 0.42 0.30 0.11 0.05 -0.07 -0.13 -0.13 -0.06 0.12 0.31 0.43 0.49 0.47 10 27.64 27.54 27.53 27.78 27.96 27.98 27.62 27.24 26.86 26.62 26.57 26.58 26.73 26.92 27.28 27.75 28.15 11 1.02 0.89 0.67 0.52 0.32 0.20 0.02 -0.02 -0.10 -0.17 -0.15 -0.09 0.10 0.27 0.41 0.49 0.51 11 27.62 27.54 27.60 27.90 28.16 28.28 27.98 27.64 27.29 27.11 27.14 27.18 27.30 27.41 27.63 27.95 28.19 12 1.00 0.89 0.74 0.64 0.52 0.50 0.38 0.37 0.33 0.32 0.42 0.51 0.68 0.76 0.77 0.69 0.55 12 ensemble average 27.53 27.41 27.44 27.75 28.03 28.13 27.85 27.51 27.18 27.02 27.05 27.12 27.22 27.31 27.53 27.90 28.17 0.91 0.76 0.57 0.49 0.39 0.35 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.23 0.33 0.45 0.60 0.66 0.66 0.63 0.53 climatology 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64