CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.58 27.62 27.89 28.18 28.24 27.96 27.55 27.20 27.02 26.97 26.94 26.88 26.90 27.10 27.56 28.00 28.18 1 0.76 0.63 0.55 0.48 0.39 0.25 0.12 0.03 -0.01 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.22 0.30 0.33 1 27.59 27.60 27.90 28.21 28.30 28.04 27.66 27.40 27.31 27.38 27.47 27.44 27.46 27.57 27.94 28.28 28.39 2 0.77 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.45 0.33 0.24 0.22 0.28 0.41 0.58 0.63 0.64 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.54 2 27.54 27.56 27.88 28.26 28.41 28.17 27.73 27.41 27.28 27.34 27.41 27.42 27.45 27.63 28.05 28.43 28.56 3 0.72 0.56 0.54 0.56 0.57 0.46 0.31 0.24 0.25 0.38 0.53 0.60 0.64 0.64 0.70 0.73 0.71 3 27.61 27.65 27.98 28.30 28.41 28.16 27.76 27.38 27.10 27.00 26.95 26.87 26.84 26.98 27.38 27.73 27.87 4 0.79 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.56 0.45 0.34 0.20 0.07 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.03 -0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02 4 27.64 27.61 27.91 28.25 28.40 28.19 27.81 27.47 27.26 27.27 27.33 27.35 27.38 27.51 27.85 28.16 28.26 5 0.82 0.62 0.56 0.55 0.56 0.48 0.38 0.30 0.24 0.31 0.44 0.53 0.56 0.51 0.50 0.46 0.42 5 27.61 27.61 27.89 28.26 28.45 28.26 27.87 27.53 27.32 27.35 27.44 27.52 27.60 27.75 28.06 28.33 28.38 6 0.79 0.61 0.55 0.56 0.61 0.54 0.44 0.35 0.29 0.39 0.56 0.70 0.78 0.75 0.72 0.63 0.54 6 27.64 27.66 27.98 28.31 28.48 28.32 27.99 27.65 27.32 27.17 27.09 27.04 27.08 27.23 27.57 27.85 27.91 7 0.82 0.66 0.63 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.57 0.47 0.29 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.26 0.23 0.23 0.15 0.07 7 27.63 27.59 27.88 28.19 28.35 28.18 27.85 27.53 27.30 27.26 27.29 27.30 27.34 27.50 27.83 28.14 28.24 8 0.81 0.60 0.53 0.49 0.51 0.46 0.42 0.35 0.27 0.30 0.40 0.48 0.52 0.50 0.48 0.44 0.39 8 27.62 27.58 27.84 28.16 28.36 28.24 27.92 27.58 27.32 27.29 27.34 27.39 27.45 27.59 27.87 28.14 28.21 9 0.80 0.59 0.49 0.46 0.51 0.53 0.50 0.40 0.29 0.33 0.45 0.57 0.64 0.60 0.52 0.44 0.37 9 27.65 27.66 27.96 28.26 28.39 28.16 27.77 27.39 27.07 26.88 26.78 26.76 26.92 27.17 27.59 27.98 28.10 10 0.84 0.66 0.62 0.56 0.54 0.45 0.35 0.21 0.04 -0.08 -0.11 -0.05 0.10 0.17 0.25 0.27 0.25 10 27.67 27.64 27.92 28.19 28.32 28.07 27.67 27.28 27.03 26.93 26.91 26.95 27.10 27.37 27.76 28.15 28.28 11 0.85 0.65 0.58 0.49 0.48 0.35 0.24 0.10 -0.00 -0.03 0.03 0.14 0.29 0.37 0.41 0.45 0.43 11 27.67 27.64 27.90 28.17 28.34 28.13 27.73 27.31 27.01 26.91 26.91 26.97 27.13 27.39 27.77 28.13 28.26 12 0.85 0.65 0.55 0.47 0.49 0.42 0.31 0.13 -0.02 -0.05 0.02 0.16 0.32 0.39 0.42 0.43 0.41 12 ensemble average 27.62 27.62 27.91 28.23 28.37 28.16 27.78 27.43 27.19 27.15 27.16 27.16 27.22 27.40 27.77 28.11 28.22 0.80 0.62 0.56 0.53 0.53 0.44 0.35 0.25 0.17 0.18 0.27 0.34 0.40 0.40 0.42 0.41 0.37 climatology 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.38 27.48 27.79 28.08 28.15 27.86 27.48 27.13 27.03 27.08 27.20 27.19 27.19 27.32 27.67 27.93 27.96 1 0.73 0.61 0.53 0.44 0.38 0.26 0.22 0.17 0.24 0.36 0.53 0.57 0.54 0.45 0.41 0.30 0.18 1 27.34 27.44 27.83 28.23 28.51 28.40 28.12 27.82 27.80 28.00 28.24 28.33 28.30 28.32 28.42 28.41 28.14 2 0.69 0.57 0.56 0.60 0.74 0.80 0.86 0.86 1.01 1.28 1.57 1.71 1.65 1.45 1.16 0.78 0.36 2 27.36 27.49 27.92 28.25 28.39 28.14 27.75 27.45 27.35 27.46 27.54 27.52 27.45 27.56 27.85 28.04 28.03 3 0.71 0.63 0.65 0.61 0.61 0.54 0.49 0.48 0.56 0.74 0.87 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.59 0.40 0.25 3 27.41 27.42 27.67 27.89 27.94 27.58 27.18 26.78 26.60 26.59 26.69 26.72 26.78 26.99 27.43 27.73 27.87 4 0.76 0.56 0.41 0.25 0.16 -0.02 -0.08 -0.19 -0.19 -0.13 0.02 0.09 0.13 0.12 0.16 0.09 0.09 4 27.41 27.43 27.76 28.08 28.29 28.12 27.80 27.43 27.25 27.33 27.49 27.60 27.63 27.78 28.02 28.16 28.05 5 0.76 0.57 0.50 0.44 0.51 0.52 0.54 0.47 0.46 0.61 0.82 0.98 0.98 0.91 0.76 0.52 0.27 5 27.42 27.47 27.81 28.13 28.31 28.11 27.74 27.36 27.15 27.22 27.31 27.36 27.35 27.50 27.81 28.00 27.95 6 0.77 0.61 0.55 0.49 0.53 0.51 0.47 0.40 0.36 0.50 0.64 0.74 0.70 0.64 0.55 0.36 0.17 6 27.48 27.46 27.71 27.90 28.01 27.72 27.39 26.98 26.71 26.62 26.60 26.61 26.67 26.90 27.33 27.60 27.64 7 0.83 0.59 0.44 0.26 0.23 0.12 0.13 0.01 -0.08 -0.10 -0.06 -0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 -0.04 -0.14 7 27.45 27.44 27.73 27.99 28.18 28.01 27.72 27.34 27.11 27.13 27.20 27.28 27.33 27.54 27.87 28.10 28.10 8 0.80 0.57 0.46 0.35 0.40 0.41 0.46 0.38 0.32 0.41 0.53 0.66 0.68 0.67 0.61 0.46 0.32 8 27.46 27.48 27.80 28.09 28.26 28.07 27.72 27.35 27.11 27.13 27.14 27.15 27.14 27.33 27.69 27.96 27.98 9 0.81 0.62 0.53 0.45 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.39 0.32 0.41 0.48 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.32 0.20 9 27.54 27.56 27.81 27.99 28.02 27.65 27.27 26.84 26.59 26.48 26.46 26.53 26.69 26.99 27.43 27.77 27.87 10 0.89 0.69 0.55 0.35 0.24 0.05 0.01 -0.12 -0.20 -0.24 -0.21 -0.09 0.04 0.13 0.17 0.13 0.10 10 27.52 27.51 27.79 27.99 28.09 27.80 27.46 27.03 26.77 26.73 26.74 26.86 26.99 27.30 27.68 27.98 28.03 11 0.87 0.65 0.52 0.35 0.31 0.20 0.19 0.06 -0.02 0.01 0.07 0.23 0.34 0.43 0.42 0.34 0.25 11 27.52 27.56 27.88 28.15 28.29 28.03 27.65 27.23 26.98 26.98 26.99 27.05 27.10 27.35 27.71 28.00 28.03 12 0.87 0.70 0.62 0.51 0.51 0.43 0.38 0.27 0.19 0.26 0.32 0.42 0.45 0.48 0.44 0.36 0.26 12 ensemble average 27.44 27.48 27.79 28.06 28.20 27.96 27.61 27.23 27.04 27.06 27.13 27.18 27.22 27.41 27.74 27.97 27.97 0.79 0.61 0.53 0.43 0.42 0.36 0.34 0.26 0.25 0.34 0.46 0.56 0.57 0.54 0.48 0.33 0.19 climatology 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78