CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.12 28.31 28.30 27.99 27.61 27.32 27.21 27.22 27.21 27.13 27.09 27.17 27.42 27.63 27.67 27.42 27.02 1 0.77 0.61 0.46 0.28 0.19 0.14 0.18 0.26 0.33 0.32 0.27 0.17 0.07 -0.07 -0.17 -0.30 -0.41 1 28.04 28.27 28.31 27.98 27.57 27.23 27.12 27.14 27.18 27.12 27.07 27.19 27.52 27.82 27.93 27.72 27.43 2 0.70 0.57 0.47 0.27 0.15 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.29 0.30 0.25 0.19 0.17 0.12 0.09 0.01 0.01 2 28.02 28.34 28.44 28.12 27.66 27.35 27.29 27.35 27.33 27.21 27.16 27.30 27.69 28.06 28.22 28.03 27.74 3 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.40 0.23 0.17 0.26 0.38 0.44 0.40 0.34 0.30 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.32 0.31 3 28.07 28.42 28.50 28.21 27.84 27.59 27.58 27.69 27.74 27.63 27.47 27.49 27.73 27.94 27.91 27.55 27.11 4 0.73 0.72 0.65 0.50 0.41 0.41 0.55 0.73 0.85 0.82 0.65 0.49 0.38 0.24 0.06 -0.16 -0.32 4 27.98 28.32 28.43 28.16 27.81 27.58 27.54 27.64 27.72 27.69 27.63 27.72 28.03 28.32 28.35 28.01 27.57 5 0.63 0.62 0.58 0.45 0.38 0.40 0.51 0.68 0.83 0.88 0.81 0.72 0.68 0.62 0.50 0.30 0.14 5 27.96 28.38 28.58 28.31 27.91 27.65 27.65 27.80 27.89 27.86 27.81 27.89 28.19 28.46 28.49 28.18 27.73 6 0.62 0.68 0.73 0.60 0.48 0.48 0.62 0.84 1.00 1.05 0.99 0.89 0.84 0.76 0.64 0.47 0.30 6 28.02 28.36 28.47 28.24 27.92 27.65 27.53 27.54 27.54 27.46 27.38 27.48 27.80 28.11 28.18 27.94 27.61 7 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.53 0.49 0.47 0.50 0.58 0.65 0.65 0.56 0.48 0.46 0.41 0.34 0.23 0.19 7 27.93 28.28 28.43 28.23 27.91 27.64 27.51 27.57 27.68 27.72 27.70 27.78 28.04 28.27 28.28 27.99 27.59 8 0.59 0.58 0.59 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.48 0.61 0.79 0.91 0.88 0.78 0.70 0.57 0.44 0.28 0.17 8 27.93 28.32 28.56 28.34 27.99 27.69 27.57 27.67 27.79 27.87 27.90 28.00 28.26 28.47 28.45 28.15 27.70 9 0.58 0.62 0.71 0.63 0.56 0.51 0.54 0.70 0.90 1.05 1.08 1.01 0.92 0.77 0.60 0.44 0.27 9 28.04 28.35 28.43 28.21 27.92 27.67 27.52 27.46 27.42 27.35 27.33 27.46 27.79 28.10 28.17 27.92 27.57 10 0.69 0.65 0.59 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.50 0.53 0.54 0.51 0.46 0.44 0.40 0.33 0.21 0.14 10 27.97 28.25 28.41 28.25 27.99 27.74 27.61 27.64 27.73 27.76 27.75 27.86 28.13 28.40 28.41 28.14 27.74 11 0.62 0.55 0.56 0.54 0.57 0.56 0.58 0.68 0.84 0.94 0.93 0.86 0.78 0.70 0.57 0.43 0.31 11 27.94 28.27 28.45 28.29 28.02 27.75 27.60 27.61 27.66 27.67 27.69 27.83 28.12 28.41 28.45 28.20 27.78 12 0.60 0.57 0.61 0.58 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.65 0.77 0.85 0.87 0.83 0.77 0.71 0.60 0.49 0.36 12 ensemble average 28.00 28.32 28.44 28.19 27.84 27.57 27.48 27.53 27.57 27.54 27.50 27.60 27.89 28.17 28.21 27.94 27.55 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.48 0.42 0.39 0.45 0.57 0.69 0.72 0.68 0.60 0.55 0.47 0.36 0.23 0.12 climatology 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.05 28.27 28.30 27.97 27.59 27.33 27.31 27.43 27.52 27.56 27.54 27.62 27.74 27.76 27.54 27.02 26.40 1 0.79 0.63 0.53 0.37 0.33 0.37 0.52 0.71 0.85 0.94 0.89 0.76 0.48 0.12 -0.24 -0.58 -0.86 1 28.01 28.38 28.50 28.28 27.97 27.81 27.85 28.07 28.15 28.11 27.99 27.99 28.09 28.05 27.81 27.24 26.60 2 0.74 0.74 0.72 0.68 0.71 0.84 1.07 1.34 1.49 1.49 1.34 1.12 0.83 0.42 0.04 -0.36 -0.66 2 27.98 28.29 28.39 28.06 27.58 27.22 27.12 27.27 27.30 27.29 27.22 27.35 27.63 27.81 27.79 27.38 26.95 3 0.71 0.65 0.61 0.46 0.31 0.26 0.33 0.54 0.63 0.66 0.57 0.49 0.37 0.17 0.01 -0.22 -0.31 3 27.96 28.34 28.46 28.19 27.84 27.55 27.56 27.75 27.93 27.95 27.85 27.88 28.02 28.07 27.89 27.37 26.72 4 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.59 0.57 0.59 0.78 1.03 1.26 1.32 1.20 1.02 0.75 0.43 0.11 -0.23 -0.55 4 27.94 28.30 28.42 28.19 27.90 27.73 27.78 28.00 28.15 28.16 28.11 28.15 28.34 28.37 28.22 27.67 27.01 5 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.59 0.64 0.76 0.99 1.27 1.48 1.54 1.46 1.29 1.07 0.73 0.44 0.07 -0.25 5 27.91 28.25 28.39 28.14 27.83 27.59 27.59 27.81 27.93 27.98 27.91 27.98 28.15 28.19 28.01 27.48 26.89 6 0.64 0.61 0.61 0.54 0.56 0.63 0.80 1.08 1.27 1.35 1.26 1.11 0.88 0.55 0.24 -0.11 -0.37 6 27.92 28.31 28.48 28.22 27.88 27.56 27.47 27.61 27.73 27.82 27.81 27.92 28.12 28.24 28.18 27.77 27.23 7 0.65 0.67 0.70 0.62 0.62 0.60 0.68 0.88 1.07 1.19 1.16 1.05 0.86 0.60 0.40 0.17 -0.03 7 27.92 28.27 28.42 28.18 27.89 27.67 27.61 27.78 27.93 28.07 28.08 28.19 28.39 28.45 28.28 27.76 27.11 8 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.58 0.63 0.71 0.82 1.06 1.26 1.45 1.43 1.33 1.12 0.81 0.50 0.16 -0.16 8 27.89 28.23 28.39 28.11 27.76 27.49 27.41 27.58 27.70 27.82 27.81 27.92 28.14 28.23 28.06 27.54 26.91 9 0.63 0.59 0.61 0.51 0.50 0.53 0.62 0.86 1.03 1.19 1.16 1.06 0.87 0.59 0.28 -0.06 -0.35 9 27.93 28.25 28.36 28.09 27.79 27.45 27.32 27.38 27.45 27.53 27.57 27.74 28.02 28.16 28.10 27.68 27.14 10 0.67 0.61 0.58 0.49 0.52 0.49 0.53 0.65 0.78 0.90 0.92 0.88 0.76 0.52 0.32 0.08 -0.13 10 27.90 28.19 28.29 28.04 27.76 27.49 27.36 27.44 27.51 27.60 27.66 27.84 28.15 28.35 28.31 27.87 27.30 11 0.64 0.55 0.51 0.44 0.50 0.53 0.57 0.71 0.84 0.98 1.01 0.97 0.89 0.71 0.53 0.27 0.04 11 27.90 28.20 28.34 28.10 27.80 27.49 27.36 27.46 27.51 27.56 27.56 27.70 27.98 28.15 28.07 27.61 27.04 12 0.64 0.57 0.57 0.50 0.53 0.53 0.57 0.73 0.84 0.94 0.91 0.84 0.72 0.51 0.29 0.01 -0.22 12 ensemble average 27.94 28.27 28.40 28.13 27.80 27.53 27.48 27.63 27.74 27.79 27.76 27.86 28.06 28.15 28.02 27.53 26.94 0.68 0.64 0.62 0.53 0.54 0.57 0.69 0.91 1.07 1.16 1.11 0.99 0.80 0.51 0.24 -0.07 -0.32 climatology 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26