CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.44 28.50 28.27 27.90 27.60 27.47 27.50 27.51 27.45 27.43 27.46 27.63 27.75 27.70 27.42 27.00 26.54 1 0.73 0.65 0.56 0.48 0.43 0.44 0.54 0.63 0.64 0.61 0.47 0.28 0.05 -0.15 -0.29 -0.43 -0.63 1 28.39 28.61 28.51 28.24 28.00 27.96 28.11 28.20 28.15 28.04 28.02 28.15 28.27 28.21 27.91 27.54 27.21 2 0.69 0.77 0.79 0.82 0.83 0.93 1.15 1.32 1.34 1.22 1.03 0.80 0.57 0.37 0.20 0.11 0.03 2 28.36 28.53 28.28 27.85 27.48 27.37 27.41 27.36 27.19 27.11 27.33 27.68 27.99 28.15 28.07 27.90 27.71 3 0.66 0.69 0.57 0.42 0.30 0.34 0.45 0.48 0.38 0.30 0.33 0.34 0.29 0.31 0.36 0.48 0.54 3 28.41 28.50 28.24 27.87 27.62 27.52 27.59 27.64 27.62 27.57 27.58 27.79 27.96 27.94 27.63 27.18 26.68 4 0.71 0.65 0.52 0.45 0.44 0.49 0.63 0.75 0.81 0.75 0.59 0.44 0.26 0.10 -0.08 -0.24 -0.50 4 28.36 28.51 28.24 27.86 27.58 27.53 27.68 27.79 27.81 27.77 27.84 28.13 28.41 28.46 28.17 27.71 27.29 5 0.66 0.66 0.53 0.43 0.41 0.51 0.72 0.90 0.99 0.95 0.84 0.78 0.71 0.61 0.46 0.29 0.11 5 28.34 28.53 28.26 27.80 27.45 27.36 27.47 27.55 27.55 27.55 27.75 28.11 28.44 28.57 28.38 28.04 27.70 6 0.64 0.69 0.55 0.37 0.28 0.34 0.51 0.66 0.73 0.73 0.76 0.76 0.74 0.73 0.67 0.61 0.53 6 28.41 28.53 28.31 27.99 27.73 27.60 27.67 27.75 27.77 27.70 27.64 27.79 27.94 27.89 27.59 27.13 26.64 7 0.71 0.69 0.60 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.70 0.87 0.95 0.89 0.64 0.45 0.23 0.05 -0.12 -0.29 -0.54 7 28.36 28.55 28.33 27.97 27.69 27.60 27.75 27.90 27.98 27.96 27.97 28.21 28.45 28.48 28.18 27.71 27.26 8 0.66 0.70 0.61 0.54 0.51 0.57 0.79 1.02 1.17 1.15 0.98 0.87 0.75 0.64 0.47 0.28 0.08 8 28.32 28.57 28.37 27.96 27.62 27.50 27.62 27.77 27.86 27.89 28.04 28.30 28.51 28.55 28.30 27.91 27.52 9 0.62 0.72 0.65 0.53 0.44 0.47 0.66 0.88 1.04 1.08 1.04 0.95 0.81 0.70 0.59 0.48 0.34 9 28.39 28.55 28.41 28.16 27.94 27.76 27.76 27.80 27.84 27.83 27.79 27.91 28.00 27.90 27.56 27.09 26.63 10 0.69 0.70 0.69 0.73 0.77 0.73 0.80 0.91 1.02 1.02 0.80 0.57 0.30 0.06 -0.15 -0.33 -0.55 10 28.35 28.56 28.41 28.14 27.88 27.76 27.86 27.98 28.04 28.00 28.00 28.19 28.39 28.39 28.09 27.60 27.14 11 0.65 0.71 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.73 0.90 1.10 1.22 1.18 1.00 0.84 0.68 0.54 0.37 0.18 -0.04 11 28.30 28.54 28.41 28.10 27.78 27.60 27.65 27.74 27.79 27.79 27.92 28.14 28.35 28.40 28.18 27.79 27.41 12 0.60 0.70 0.70 0.67 0.60 0.57 0.69 0.86 0.97 0.97 0.92 0.79 0.65 0.55 0.46 0.37 0.23 12 ensemble average 28.37 28.54 28.34 27.99 27.70 27.59 27.67 27.75 27.75 27.72 27.78 28.00 28.20 28.22 27.96 27.55 27.14 0.67 0.70 0.62 0.56 0.52 0.56 0.71 0.86 0.94 0.90 0.78 0.66 0.50 0.38 0.24 0.13 -0.03 climatology 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.40 28.43 28.06 27.61 27.30 27.21 27.33 27.37 27.39 27.40 27.50 27.67 27.73 27.60 27.17 26.59 26.05 1 0.76 0.65 0.46 0.35 0.34 0.42 0.61 0.70 0.76 0.75 0.64 0.40 0.09 -0.18 -0.43 -0.67 -0.91 1 28.35 28.52 28.30 27.93 27.63 27.60 27.78 27.85 27.79 27.69 27.83 27.99 28.09 28.06 27.75 27.33 26.95 2 0.71 0.74 0.70 0.67 0.67 0.81 1.06 1.18 1.17 1.04 0.97 0.73 0.46 0.28 0.15 0.07 -0.02 2 28.34 28.50 28.25 27.76 27.33 27.19 27.30 27.35 27.30 27.24 27.50 27.79 27.99 28.07 27.78 27.43 27.06 3 0.70 0.73 0.65 0.50 0.37 0.40 0.57 0.68 0.67 0.59 0.64 0.53 0.35 0.29 0.18 0.16 0.09 3 28.31 28.49 28.21 27.88 27.67 27.68 27.87 28.00 28.08 28.07 28.12 28.20 28.16 27.90 27.33 26.67 26.07 4 0.68 0.71 0.61 0.62 0.71 0.89 1.15 1.33 1.46 1.42 1.25 0.94 0.52 0.13 -0.27 -0.59 -0.89 4 28.28 28.50 28.27 27.94 27.69 27.72 27.96 28.12 28.19 28.14 28.22 28.31 28.30 28.11 27.62 27.03 26.48 5 0.65 0.72 0.68 0.67 0.73 0.93 1.24 1.46 1.57 1.49 1.36 1.05 0.66 0.34 0.02 -0.24 -0.48 5 28.34 28.50 28.24 27.81 27.49 27.42 27.60 27.68 27.69 27.61 27.79 27.99 28.09 28.04 27.59 27.08 26.61 6 0.70 0.72 0.64 0.54 0.53 0.63 0.88 1.01 1.07 0.96 0.93 0.72 0.46 0.26 -0.01 -0.19 -0.35 6 28.27 28.45 28.18 27.85 27.57 27.51 27.67 27.81 27.90 27.90 27.98 28.12 28.14 27.97 27.47 26.89 26.36 7 0.63 0.67 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.72 0.94 1.15 1.28 1.24 1.11 0.86 0.50 0.19 -0.13 -0.38 -0.61 7 28.26 28.46 28.23 27.90 27.63 27.56 27.75 27.90 28.04 28.04 28.19 28.32 28.34 28.15 27.64 27.03 26.48 8 0.62 0.68 0.63 0.63 0.66 0.77 1.03 1.23 1.41 1.39 1.32 1.06 0.71 0.37 0.04 -0.24 -0.49 8 28.31 28.52 28.30 27.91 27.59 27.47 27.65 27.77 27.85 27.80 27.97 28.15 28.20 28.04 27.52 26.96 26.43 9 0.67 0.74 0.71 0.65 0.63 0.68 0.92 1.10 1.23 1.15 1.10 0.88 0.56 0.26 -0.08 -0.30 -0.53 9 28.24 28.44 28.21 27.94 27.64 27.51 27.62 27.72 27.81 27.83 27.92 28.10 28.10 27.86 27.31 26.68 26.15 10 0.61 0.66 0.61 0.67 0.68 0.72 0.89 1.05 1.18 1.18 1.06 0.83 0.46 0.08 -0.29 -0.59 -0.81 10 28.22 28.42 28.23 27.96 27.71 27.60 27.75 27.86 27.98 28.01 28.18 28.36 28.41 28.26 27.79 27.22 26.72 11 0.59 0.64 0.63 0.70 0.74 0.81 1.03 1.19 1.36 1.36 1.31 1.09 0.77 0.49 0.19 -0.04 -0.24 11 28.28 28.48 28.28 27.92 27.59 27.42 27.55 27.61 27.65 27.61 27.80 28.06 28.20 28.12 27.68 27.17 26.68 12 0.64 0.71 0.68 0.66 0.63 0.63 0.82 0.94 1.03 0.96 0.94 0.80 0.56 0.34 0.09 -0.10 -0.28 12 ensemble average 28.30 28.48 28.23 27.87 27.57 27.49 27.65 27.75 27.81 27.78 27.92 28.09 28.15 28.01 27.55 27.01 26.50 0.66 0.70 0.63 0.60 0.61 0.70 0.93 1.08 1.18 1.13 1.05 0.82 0.51 0.24 -0.05 -0.26 -0.46 climatology 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96