CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.60 28.44 28.10 27.83 27.76 27.89 28.00 27.97 27.92 27.91 28.06 28.18 28.13 27.81 27.36 26.93 26.64 1 0.76 0.73 0.68 0.66 0.73 0.93 1.11 1.15 1.10 0.91 0.71 0.48 0.29 0.10 -0.07 -0.24 -0.39 1 28.59 28.46 28.14 27.81 27.69 27.80 27.88 27.86 27.79 27.85 27.98 28.15 28.18 27.99 27.64 27.29 26.98 2 0.74 0.75 0.71 0.63 0.66 0.84 1.00 1.04 0.97 0.85 0.63 0.45 0.34 0.27 0.21 0.11 -0.05 2 28.54 28.45 28.11 27.75 27.64 27.72 27.77 27.68 27.59 27.65 27.91 28.12 28.26 28.08 27.85 27.59 27.41 3 0.69 0.74 0.68 0.58 0.61 0.76 0.88 0.86 0.77 0.66 0.57 0.42 0.41 0.37 0.43 0.41 0.38 3 28.56 28.32 27.91 27.60 27.52 27.64 27.73 27.68 27.62 27.68 27.87 28.04 28.00 27.66 27.18 26.68 26.27 4 0.72 0.61 0.48 0.43 0.49 0.68 0.84 0.87 0.81 0.68 0.52 0.34 0.16 -0.05 -0.25 -0.50 -0.76 4 28.53 28.20 27.70 27.32 27.23 27.33 27.37 27.25 27.18 27.26 27.62 28.02 28.19 28.05 27.73 27.39 27.12 5 0.68 0.49 0.28 0.15 0.20 0.36 0.48 0.44 0.37 0.27 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.34 0.30 0.22 0.09 5 28.51 28.20 27.65 27.23 27.10 27.13 27.14 27.03 27.01 27.17 27.62 28.04 28.25 28.10 27.82 27.55 27.35 6 0.67 0.48 0.22 0.06 0.07 0.17 0.25 0.22 0.19 0.17 0.27 0.33 0.41 0.39 0.40 0.37 0.32 6 28.55 28.25 27.84 27.55 27.48 27.60 27.75 27.78 27.76 27.83 28.04 28.27 28.28 27.96 27.43 26.88 26.40 7 0.71 0.54 0.42 0.37 0.45 0.64 0.86 0.97 0.94 0.83 0.70 0.57 0.43 0.24 0.01 -0.30 -0.63 7 28.55 28.30 27.89 27.58 27.50 27.61 27.72 27.74 27.72 27.81 28.13 28.47 28.56 28.33 27.96 27.65 27.38 8 0.71 0.59 0.46 0.40 0.47 0.65 0.83 0.92 0.91 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.72 0.62 0.54 0.47 0.35 8 28.52 28.26 27.78 27.42 27.31 27.40 27.50 27.51 27.55 27.68 28.05 28.39 28.53 28.32 27.97 27.66 27.41 9 0.68 0.55 0.36 0.24 0.28 0.44 0.61 0.69 0.73 0.68 0.70 0.69 0.69 0.61 0.55 0.48 0.38 9 28.53 28.32 27.97 27.67 27.47 27.51 27.62 27.70 27.72 27.78 27.99 28.20 28.26 28.02 27.64 27.20 26.86 10 0.68 0.61 0.55 0.49 0.44 0.55 0.73 0.89 0.91 0.78 0.65 0.50 0.42 0.31 0.21 0.02 -0.17 10 28.53 28.42 28.13 27.84 27.68 27.76 27.89 28.01 28.03 28.03 28.21 28.41 28.42 28.16 27.72 27.29 26.98 11 0.69 0.71 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.79 1.01 1.19 1.21 1.03 0.86 0.71 0.58 0.45 0.30 0.12 -0.04 11 28.51 28.37 27.99 27.65 27.45 27.49 27.60 27.68 27.75 27.84 28.11 28.34 28.39 28.15 27.75 27.34 27.05 12 0.67 0.65 0.57 0.47 0.42 0.53 0.71 0.86 0.94 0.84 0.76 0.64 0.55 0.44 0.32 0.17 0.02 12 ensemble average 28.54 28.33 27.93 27.60 27.49 27.57 27.66 27.66 27.64 27.71 27.97 28.22 28.29 28.05 27.67 27.29 26.99 0.70 0.62 0.51 0.43 0.46 0.61 0.78 0.84 0.82 0.71 0.62 0.52 0.44 0.34 0.25 0.11 -0.04 climatology 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.49 28.28 27.95 27.65 27.60 27.77 27.90 27.88 27.79 27.80 27.97 28.08 28.02 27.61 27.12 26.66 26.40 1 0.71 0.68 0.69 0.68 0.81 1.05 1.23 1.26 1.14 0.93 0.71 0.44 0.24 0.01 -0.14 -0.30 -0.38 1 28.46 28.34 27.97 27.60 27.46 27.61 27.64 27.60 27.53 27.73 27.99 28.10 28.03 27.64 27.26 26.93 26.64 2 0.68 0.74 0.71 0.63 0.67 0.88 0.97 0.97 0.88 0.86 0.72 0.46 0.25 0.04 -0.00 -0.04 -0.15 2 28.43 28.32 27.97 27.58 27.44 27.57 27.63 27.59 27.52 27.72 27.96 28.13 28.16 27.90 27.53 27.15 26.89 3 0.65 0.72 0.71 0.62 0.65 0.85 0.96 0.97 0.87 0.86 0.69 0.49 0.38 0.30 0.26 0.19 0.11 3 28.47 28.13 27.65 27.32 27.31 27.51 27.67 27.71 27.67 27.77 27.95 28.07 27.98 27.51 26.95 26.40 26.07 4 0.69 0.53 0.39 0.35 0.52 0.79 1.00 1.08 1.02 0.90 0.69 0.44 0.20 -0.09 -0.31 -0.57 -0.72 4 28.44 28.18 27.71 27.31 27.19 27.36 27.42 27.41 27.38 27.54 27.81 27.98 27.90 27.50 27.03 26.59 26.24 5 0.66 0.58 0.45 0.35 0.40 0.63 0.75 0.79 0.73 0.68 0.55 0.34 0.12 -0.09 -0.23 -0.37 -0.55 5 28.43 28.22 27.78 27.41 27.27 27.42 27.45 27.41 27.34 27.50 27.72 27.87 27.83 27.46 26.99 26.55 26.31 6 0.65 0.62 0.51 0.45 0.48 0.70 0.78 0.79 0.69 0.63 0.46 0.23 0.05 -0.14 -0.27 -0.41 -0.48 6 28.44 28.11 27.69 27.33 27.28 27.46 27.66 27.73 27.73 27.83 28.04 28.14 28.06 27.59 27.03 26.44 26.10 7 0.66 0.51 0.43 0.36 0.49 0.73 0.99 1.10 1.08 0.96 0.78 0.50 0.28 -0.01 -0.24 -0.52 -0.68 7 28.39 28.18 27.81 27.46 27.34 27.51 27.62 27.66 27.64 27.78 28.04 28.15 28.05 27.60 27.11 26.64 26.33 8 0.61 0.58 0.54 0.50 0.56 0.79 0.95 1.03 0.99 0.92 0.78 0.52 0.27 0.00 -0.16 -0.32 -0.46 8 28.42 28.23 27.87 27.54 27.43 27.65 27.78 27.85 27.81 27.94 28.11 28.18 28.03 27.57 27.03 26.55 26.28 9 0.64 0.63 0.60 0.58 0.64 0.93 1.11 1.22 1.16 1.08 0.85 0.54 0.25 -0.03 -0.23 -0.41 -0.51 9 28.39 28.13 27.77 27.40 27.24 27.30 27.38 27.46 27.52 27.66 27.94 28.10 28.05 27.63 27.11 26.60 26.30 10 0.61 0.53 0.50 0.44 0.45 0.57 0.72 0.84 0.87 0.79 0.68 0.47 0.27 0.03 -0.15 -0.36 -0.49 10 28.38 28.17 27.83 27.51 27.35 27.47 27.55 27.64 27.67 27.85 28.12 28.27 28.18 27.76 27.25 26.75 26.43 11 0.60 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.56 0.74 0.88 1.02 1.02 0.98 0.85 0.63 0.41 0.16 -0.01 -0.21 -0.36 11 28.42 28.21 27.85 27.53 27.39 27.58 27.68 27.78 27.78 27.92 28.14 28.27 28.16 27.73 27.19 26.66 26.32 12 0.64 0.61 0.58 0.57 0.60 0.86 1.01 1.16 1.13 1.06 0.88 0.63 0.38 0.13 -0.08 -0.31 -0.46 12 ensemble average 28.43 28.21 27.82 27.47 27.36 27.52 27.61 27.64 27.62 27.75 27.98 28.11 28.04 27.63 27.13 26.66 26.36 0.65 0.61 0.56 0.51 0.57 0.79 0.94 1.02 0.97 0.89 0.72 0.47 0.26 0.03 -0.13 -0.30 -0.43 climatology 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79