CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.36 28.06 27.78 27.69 27.81 27.91 27.85 27.76 27.78 28.06 28.33 28.41 28.13 27.69 27.30 27.09 27.02 1 0.65 0.63 0.61 0.66 0.85 1.02 1.03 0.94 0.79 0.72 0.63 0.56 0.42 0.26 0.12 0.06 0.05 1 28.34 28.02 27.69 27.58 27.71 27.83 27.82 27.77 27.84 28.07 28.31 28.42 28.21 27.83 27.43 27.22 27.14 2 0.63 0.60 0.51 0.55 0.75 0.94 1.00 0.95 0.84 0.73 0.61 0.58 0.50 0.40 0.26 0.19 0.18 2 28.34 28.12 27.86 27.78 27.83 27.87 27.78 27.70 27.72 27.94 28.12 28.23 28.06 27.79 27.45 27.23 27.11 3 0.62 0.69 0.69 0.75 0.87 0.98 0.97 0.88 0.73 0.60 0.42 0.38 0.34 0.36 0.28 0.20 0.15 3 28.31 27.90 27.51 27.37 27.47 27.55 27.49 27.41 27.45 27.71 27.95 28.02 27.75 27.34 26.88 26.54 26.28 4 0.60 0.47 0.33 0.34 0.50 0.66 0.68 0.59 0.45 0.37 0.25 0.18 0.04 -0.09 -0.30 -0.49 -0.68 4 28.27 27.84 27.43 27.32 27.43 27.55 27.53 27.46 27.55 27.87 28.18 28.33 28.13 27.80 27.40 27.16 27.02 5 0.56 0.41 0.25 0.29 0.47 0.67 0.71 0.65 0.56 0.52 0.48 0.48 0.42 0.37 0.22 0.13 0.06 5 28.26 27.82 27.49 27.42 27.48 27.49 27.36 27.27 27.38 27.76 28.12 28.32 28.19 27.94 27.64 27.49 27.42 6 0.55 0.40 0.31 0.39 0.52 0.60 0.54 0.45 0.38 0.41 0.42 0.48 0.48 0.51 0.47 0.46 0.46 6 28.30 27.84 27.48 27.39 27.51 27.60 27.51 27.38 27.43 27.76 28.08 28.16 27.87 27.42 26.94 26.55 26.28 7 0.59 0.42 0.31 0.36 0.55 0.71 0.70 0.56 0.44 0.41 0.38 0.31 0.16 -0.00 -0.24 -0.48 -0.68 7 28.27 27.86 27.52 27.46 27.59 27.71 27.69 27.63 27.74 28.11 28.48 28.63 28.41 28.01 27.59 27.32 27.20 8 0.56 0.43 0.34 0.43 0.63 0.83 0.88 0.81 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.69 0.59 0.41 0.29 0.24 8 28.27 27.84 27.52 27.48 27.60 27.69 27.66 27.61 27.73 28.09 28.45 28.63 28.45 28.09 27.70 27.44 27.34 9 0.56 0.41 0.34 0.45 0.64 0.80 0.84 0.80 0.73 0.75 0.75 0.78 0.73 0.67 0.53 0.41 0.38 9 28.32 27.93 27.60 27.47 27.53 27.59 27.53 27.44 27.53 27.87 28.20 28.30 28.05 27.67 27.25 26.94 26.74 10 0.61 0.50 0.42 0.44 0.57 0.70 0.72 0.63 0.53 0.52 0.50 0.46 0.34 0.24 0.07 -0.09 -0.22 10 28.30 27.91 27.55 27.43 27.55 27.70 27.75 27.73 27.85 28.18 28.51 28.62 28.41 28.06 27.66 27.41 27.32 11 0.59 0.49 0.38 0.40 0.59 0.82 0.93 0.91 0.85 0.84 0.80 0.78 0.70 0.63 0.48 0.38 0.36 11 28.31 27.93 27.61 27.51 27.60 27.70 27.73 27.74 27.85 28.15 28.43 28.52 28.32 27.94 27.54 27.28 27.15 12 0.60 0.51 0.43 0.48 0.64 0.82 0.92 0.92 0.85 0.80 0.73 0.68 0.60 0.51 0.37 0.25 0.19 12 ensemble average 28.30 27.92 27.59 27.49 27.59 27.68 27.64 27.57 27.65 27.96 28.26 28.38 28.16 27.80 27.40 27.14 27.00 0.59 0.50 0.41 0.46 0.63 0.80 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.62 0.56 0.54 0.45 0.37 0.22 0.11 0.04 climatology 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 28.19 27.95 27.67 27.65 27.83 27.98 28.02 27.98 28.03 28.20 28.29 28.22 27.81 27.32 26.87 26.63 26.55 1 0.59 0.69 0.71 0.86 1.11 1.31 1.40 1.33 1.16 0.94 0.65 0.44 0.22 0.06 -0.10 -0.16 -0.17 1 28.16 27.90 27.54 27.38 27.48 27.55 27.52 27.39 27.44 27.66 27.83 27.84 27.62 27.29 26.90 26.60 26.44 2 0.56 0.64 0.58 0.59 0.75 0.88 0.89 0.74 0.58 0.40 0.19 0.06 0.03 0.03 -0.06 -0.19 -0.28 2 28.16 27.91 27.60 27.49 27.67 27.80 27.87 27.81 27.89 28.06 28.18 28.19 27.94 27.52 27.08 26.78 26.66 3 0.56 0.65 0.64 0.70 0.95 1.13 1.24 1.16 1.03 0.79 0.55 0.41 0.34 0.25 0.12 -0.00 -0.06 3 28.12 27.69 27.35 27.30 27.47 27.59 27.64 27.61 27.74 27.94 28.08 27.99 27.55 27.00 26.45 26.10 25.89 4 0.52 0.43 0.39 0.52 0.75 0.92 1.01 0.96 0.87 0.68 0.44 0.22 -0.05 -0.27 -0.51 -0.69 -0.83 4 28.13 27.75 27.44 27.38 27.57 27.67 27.65 27.53 27.59 27.78 27.90 27.84 27.48 26.97 26.46 26.10 25.93 5 0.53 0.49 0.48 0.59 0.85 1.00 1.02 0.88 0.73 0.52 0.27 0.07 -0.12 -0.30 -0.50 -0.68 -0.79 5 28.13 27.69 27.34 27.23 27.43 27.51 27.53 27.45 27.58 27.80 27.97 27.97 27.64 27.19 26.74 26.48 26.37 6 0.53 0.43 0.38 0.44 0.71 0.84 0.91 0.80 0.71 0.54 0.33 0.19 0.04 -0.08 -0.22 -0.31 -0.35 6 28.11 27.65 27.26 27.23 27.41 27.58 27.61 27.58 27.71 27.97 28.15 28.10 27.67 27.10 26.52 26.16 25.97 7 0.51 0.38 0.30 0.44 0.69 0.91 0.99 0.93 0.85 0.70 0.51 0.32 0.07 -0.17 -0.44 -0.63 -0.75 7 28.12 27.76 27.45 27.43 27.64 27.79 27.78 27.69 27.77 28.03 28.21 28.22 27.87 27.35 26.81 26.48 26.38 8 0.52 0.49 0.49 0.64 0.92 1.12 1.15 1.04 0.90 0.76 0.57 0.44 0.27 0.08 -0.15 -0.31 -0.35 8 28.12 27.74 27.44 27.40 27.65 27.80 27.86 27.79 27.90 28.10 28.24 28.20 27.83 27.31 26.80 26.50 26.39 9 0.52 0.48 0.48 0.61 0.93 1.13 1.23 1.14 1.03 0.83 0.60 0.42 0.23 0.05 -0.16 -0.29 -0.33 9 28.12 27.70 27.30 27.20 27.32 27.43 27.53 27.58 27.76 28.06 28.26 28.27 27.91 27.42 26.90 26.59 26.48 10 0.52 0.44 0.34 0.41 0.60 0.77 0.91 0.93 0.90 0.79 0.62 0.49 0.32 0.15 -0.06 -0.20 -0.25 10 28.13 27.78 27.46 27.36 27.53 27.67 27.76 27.75 27.88 28.13 28.31 28.27 27.89 27.36 26.83 26.48 26.34 11 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.57 0.81 1.00 1.14 1.10 1.02 0.87 0.67 0.49 0.30 0.09 -0.14 -0.31 -0.38 11 28.12 27.74 27.43 27.34 27.54 27.67 27.79 27.77 27.91 28.13 28.29 28.23 27.84 27.28 26.72 26.37 26.21 12 0.53 0.48 0.47 0.55 0.81 1.00 1.17 1.12 1.05 0.87 0.65 0.45 0.24 0.01 -0.24 -0.42 -0.51 12 ensemble average 28.13 27.77 27.44 27.37 27.55 27.67 27.71 27.66 27.77 27.99 28.14 28.11 27.76 27.26 26.76 26.44 26.30 0.54 0.51 0.48 0.58 0.82 1.00 1.09 1.01 0.90 0.72 0.50 0.33 0.16 -0.01 -0.20 -0.35 -0.42 climatology 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72