CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.89 27.60 27.51 27.63 27.70 27.56 27.36 27.30 27.57 27.88 28.05 27.87 27.49 27.09 26.88 26.79 26.71 1 0.46 0.43 0.48 0.67 0.81 0.75 0.55 0.31 0.23 0.18 0.21 0.15 0.07 -0.08 -0.15 -0.17 -0.18 1 27.90 27.63 27.51 27.65 27.71 27.54 27.27 27.23 27.50 27.76 27.86 27.64 27.30 26.94 26.77 26.68 26.57 2 0.48 0.45 0.49 0.69 0.83 0.73 0.45 0.24 0.15 0.06 0.01 -0.08 -0.13 -0.24 -0.26 -0.28 -0.32 2 27.90 27.71 27.65 27.74 27.76 27.64 27.47 27.46 27.71 27.99 28.16 28.01 27.69 27.32 27.10 27.01 26.93 3 0.48 0.54 0.62 0.78 0.88 0.82 0.65 0.46 0.36 0.29 0.31 0.30 0.26 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.05 3 27.90 27.52 27.36 27.39 27.44 27.40 27.34 27.43 27.71 27.97 28.04 27.81 27.39 26.92 26.60 26.38 26.20 4 0.47 0.35 0.33 0.43 0.55 0.58 0.53 0.43 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.10 -0.04 -0.25 -0.43 -0.58 -0.69 4 27.92 27.61 27.47 27.52 27.53 27.46 27.32 27.39 27.69 27.97 28.07 27.85 27.51 27.13 26.89 26.74 26.57 5 0.50 0.43 0.44 0.56 0.65 0.64 0.50 0.39 0.34 0.27 0.22 0.14 0.08 -0.05 -0.14 -0.22 -0.31 5 27.88 27.60 27.48 27.51 27.48 27.38 27.28 27.37 27.70 28.02 28.21 28.11 27.85 27.51 27.31 27.21 27.11 6 0.46 0.43 0.46 0.55 0.60 0.56 0.46 0.37 0.35 0.32 0.37 0.40 0.42 0.33 0.28 0.25 0.22 6 27.88 27.55 27.45 27.54 27.61 27.53 27.38 27.40 27.72 27.99 28.04 27.74 27.28 26.78 26.41 26.17 25.98 7 0.46 0.37 0.42 0.58 0.73 0.72 0.56 0.41 0.38 0.29 0.19 0.02 -0.14 -0.39 -0.62 -0.80 -0.91 7 27.90 27.61 27.54 27.65 27.70 27.61 27.45 27.52 27.87 28.20 28.31 28.07 27.67 27.24 26.90 26.71 26.52 8 0.47 0.43 0.51 0.69 0.81 0.79 0.63 0.52 0.52 0.50 0.46 0.36 0.25 0.06 -0.13 -0.25 -0.37 8 27.89 27.61 27.53 27.61 27.66 27.60 27.52 27.61 27.96 28.31 28.48 28.33 28.00 27.61 27.33 27.20 27.10 9 0.46 0.43 0.50 0.65 0.77 0.78 0.70 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.64 0.62 0.57 0.43 0.30 0.24 0.21 9 27.91 27.54 27.40 27.48 27.59 27.55 27.41 27.43 27.70 27.93 27.96 27.70 27.29 26.81 26.44 26.19 25.99 10 0.48 0.37 0.37 0.52 0.70 0.73 0.60 0.43 0.35 0.23 0.12 -0.01 -0.13 -0.36 -0.59 -0.77 -0.90 10 27.90 27.58 27.45 27.54 27.61 27.59 27.49 27.57 27.90 28.19 28.30 28.09 27.73 27.31 27.01 26.84 26.67 11 0.48 0.40 0.42 0.57 0.73 0.77 0.68 0.58 0.55 0.49 0.46 0.38 0.30 0.13 -0.02 -0.12 -0.21 11 27.91 27.59 27.47 27.55 27.64 27.67 27.63 27.73 28.04 28.33 28.47 28.31 27.99 27.59 27.30 27.17 27.07 12 0.48 0.42 0.44 0.59 0.76 0.85 0.82 0.73 0.69 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.56 0.41 0.27 0.21 0.18 12 ensemble average 27.90 27.60 27.49 27.57 27.62 27.54 27.41 27.45 27.76 28.05 28.16 27.96 27.60 27.19 26.91 26.76 26.62 0.47 0.42 0.46 0.61 0.73 0.73 0.59 0.46 0.41 0.35 0.32 0.25 0.17 0.01 -0.12 -0.20 -0.27 climatology 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.70 27.40 27.34 27.49 27.58 27.53 27.40 27.38 27.61 27.78 27.78 27.43 26.91 26.40 26.04 25.91 25.79 1 0.43 0.43 0.55 0.76 0.92 0.91 0.75 0.52 0.35 0.15 0.01 -0.17 -0.36 -0.56 -0.75 -0.81 -0.88 1 27.70 27.39 27.29 27.40 27.50 27.46 27.29 27.25 27.46 27.66 27.66 27.31 26.80 26.26 25.88 25.68 25.54 2 0.43 0.43 0.50 0.68 0.83 0.83 0.64 0.39 0.20 0.02 -0.12 -0.29 -0.46 -0.71 -0.91 -1.04 -1.12 2 27.71 27.42 27.31 27.42 27.54 27.54 27.44 27.45 27.70 27.90 27.95 27.71 27.29 26.81 26.48 26.34 26.17 3 0.45 0.46 0.53 0.70 0.87 0.92 0.79 0.58 0.43 0.26 0.18 0.11 0.02 -0.15 -0.31 -0.38 -0.49 3 27.69 27.35 27.25 27.39 27.45 27.50 27.48 27.59 27.82 27.95 27.92 27.51 26.95 26.38 25.95 25.75 25.60 4 0.43 0.39 0.46 0.67 0.78 0.87 0.83 0.73 0.56 0.31 0.14 -0.09 -0.31 -0.59 -0.83 -0.97 -1.07 4 27.71 27.39 27.30 27.44 27.50 27.50 27.41 27.48 27.70 27.85 27.87 27.52 27.07 26.53 26.16 25.98 25.85 5 0.45 0.43 0.51 0.72 0.83 0.88 0.76 0.61 0.44 0.22 0.09 -0.07 -0.20 -0.43 -0.63 -0.75 -0.82 5 27.69 27.33 27.18 27.30 27.37 27.36 27.28 27.35 27.60 27.79 27.85 27.56 27.12 26.62 26.28 26.15 26.06 6 0.42 0.37 0.39 0.57 0.70 0.74 0.63 0.48 0.34 0.16 0.07 -0.04 -0.14 -0.34 -0.51 -0.58 -0.61 6 27.71 27.39 27.37 27.56 27.70 27.73 27.69 27.75 27.94 28.05 27.99 27.54 26.96 26.36 25.92 25.69 25.58 7 0.44 0.43 0.59 0.84 1.03 1.11 1.04 0.88 0.68 0.42 0.21 -0.06 -0.30 -0.60 -0.86 -1.03 -1.09 7 27.71 27.40 27.37 27.56 27.69 27.74 27.66 27.73 27.91 28.04 27.99 27.58 27.05 26.47 26.06 25.85 25.70 8 0.45 0.44 0.59 0.84 1.03 1.11 1.01 0.86 0.65 0.40 0.21 -0.02 -0.22 -0.49 -0.73 -0.87 -0.96 8 27.70 27.38 27.29 27.46 27.57 27.58 27.50 27.56 27.79 27.96 27.98 27.64 27.14 26.62 26.29 26.18 26.14 9 0.43 0.41 0.50 0.74 0.90 0.96 0.85 0.69 0.52 0.33 0.20 0.04 -0.12 -0.35 -0.50 -0.54 -0.53 9 27.71 27.37 27.31 27.47 27.61 27.68 27.64 27.71 27.91 28.01 27.95 27.54 27.02 26.47 26.09 25.89 25.79 10 0.44 0.41 0.52 0.75 0.94 1.05 0.99 0.84 0.64 0.37 0.17 -0.06 -0.25 -0.49 -0.70 -0.83 -0.88 10 27.71 27.38 27.29 27.45 27.58 27.70 27.67 27.79 27.98 28.10 28.02 27.60 27.06 26.48 26.08 25.85 25.71 11 0.44 0.41 0.50 0.73 0.91 1.07 1.02 0.92 0.72 0.46 0.24 -0.00 -0.21 -0.48 -0.71 -0.87 -0.96 11 27.71 27.37 27.23 27.38 27.50 27.57 27.51 27.60 27.84 28.00 27.97 27.59 27.08 26.53 26.18 26.02 25.97 12 0.45 0.41 0.44 0.66 0.83 0.94 0.86 0.74 0.58 0.36 0.19 -0.01 -0.18 -0.43 -0.61 -0.70 -0.70 12 ensemble average 27.70 27.38 27.29 27.44 27.55 27.57 27.50 27.55 27.77 27.93 27.91 27.54 27.04 26.49 26.12 25.94 25.83 0.44 0.42 0.51 0.72 0.88 0.95 0.85 0.69 0.51 0.29 0.13 -0.05 -0.23 -0.47 -0.67 -0.78 -0.84 climatology 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67