CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.46 27.27 27.31 27.36 27.22 27.00 26.97 27.29 27.63 27.81 27.65 27.35 26.98 26.73 26.59 26.49 26.40 1 0.28 0.24 0.35 0.47 0.40 0.19 -0.03 -0.05 -0.07 -0.03 -0.06 -0.07 -0.20 -0.30 -0.37 -0.40 -0.42 1 27.43 27.26 27.31 27.36 27.25 27.08 27.10 27.47 27.87 28.07 27.89 27.55 27.17 26.94 26.82 26.71 26.61 2 0.25 0.23 0.35 0.47 0.44 0.26 0.10 0.13 0.17 0.23 0.18 0.12 -0.01 -0.09 -0.14 -0.18 -0.20 2 27.46 27.26 27.27 27.32 27.25 27.15 27.24 27.65 28.09 28.33 28.18 27.88 27.53 27.37 27.30 27.25 27.17 3 0.28 0.24 0.31 0.43 0.44 0.34 0.24 0.30 0.39 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.36 0.35 3 27.51 27.28 27.31 27.37 27.29 27.14 27.16 27.50 27.78 27.87 27.65 27.30 26.89 26.59 26.39 26.23 26.08 4 0.33 0.25 0.35 0.49 0.47 0.32 0.17 0.15 0.08 0.03 -0.06 -0.12 -0.28 -0.44 -0.57 -0.66 -0.73 4 27.47 27.28 27.30 27.32 27.25 27.14 27.21 27.58 27.95 28.11 27.94 27.63 27.26 26.97 26.78 26.58 26.43 5 0.30 0.25 0.34 0.43 0.44 0.32 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.27 0.23 0.21 0.09 -0.06 -0.18 -0.30 -0.38 5 27.50 27.30 27.30 27.34 27.28 27.21 27.31 27.73 28.13 28.39 28.29 28.04 27.69 27.47 27.37 27.30 27.21 6 0.32 0.27 0.34 0.45 0.47 0.39 0.31 0.38 0.43 0.55 0.58 0.62 0.51 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.39 6 27.49 27.33 27.37 27.42 27.33 27.18 27.17 27.47 27.72 27.77 27.50 27.10 26.61 26.19 25.89 25.67 25.57 7 0.32 0.30 0.41 0.54 0.52 0.36 0.18 0.13 0.02 -0.07 -0.21 -0.33 -0.57 -0.84 -1.07 -1.22 -1.25 7 27.43 27.27 27.31 27.35 27.27 27.13 27.18 27.56 27.94 28.11 27.91 27.54 27.11 26.78 26.59 26.42 26.30 8 0.25 0.24 0.35 0.46 0.45 0.31 0.19 0.21 0.24 0.26 0.19 0.12 -0.06 -0.25 -0.37 -0.47 -0.52 8 27.44 27.27 27.29 27.32 27.26 27.18 27.28 27.70 28.11 28.34 28.19 27.89 27.50 27.24 27.11 27.02 26.96 9 0.26 0.24 0.33 0.43 0.45 0.37 0.29 0.36 0.41 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.33 0.21 0.15 0.14 0.14 9 27.51 27.36 27.41 27.48 27.43 27.30 27.31 27.61 27.88 27.94 27.67 27.24 26.72 26.26 25.96 25.74 25.65 10 0.33 0.33 0.44 0.60 0.61 0.48 0.31 0.27 0.18 0.09 -0.04 -0.18 -0.46 -0.77 -1.00 -1.15 -1.16 10 27.48 27.33 27.38 27.44 27.41 27.29 27.35 27.72 28.08 28.21 28.00 27.64 27.25 26.91 26.70 26.49 26.36 11 0.30 0.30 0.42 0.55 0.59 0.48 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.28 0.22 0.07 -0.12 -0.26 -0.40 -0.46 11 27.46 27.29 27.33 27.40 27.40 27.35 27.43 27.81 28.16 28.33 28.16 27.84 27.45 27.15 27.00 26.87 26.79 12 0.28 0.26 0.37 0.51 0.58 0.53 0.44 0.46 0.46 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.27 0.12 0.04 -0.02 -0.03 12 ensemble average 27.47 27.29 27.32 27.37 27.30 27.18 27.23 27.59 27.94 28.11 27.92 27.58 27.18 26.88 26.71 26.56 26.46 0.29 0.26 0.36 0.49 0.49 0.36 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.21 0.16 0.00 -0.15 -0.25 -0.32 -0.35 climatology 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.23 27.00 27.02 27.07 27.00 26.86 26.85 27.14 27.44 27.54 27.29 26.85 26.36 25.95 25.78 25.67 25.60 1 0.27 0.22 0.30 0.40 0.38 0.21 -0.02 -0.12 -0.19 -0.24 -0.31 -0.41 -0.60 -0.83 -0.95 -0.99 -1.02 1 27.22 27.00 27.05 27.15 27.14 27.03 27.02 27.30 27.58 27.66 27.42 26.98 26.47 26.08 25.95 25.91 25.91 2 0.25 0.21 0.32 0.48 0.51 0.38 0.15 0.03 -0.06 -0.12 -0.18 -0.29 -0.49 -0.71 -0.78 -0.76 -0.72 2 27.25 27.05 27.09 27.19 27.19 27.12 27.17 27.54 27.91 28.07 27.87 27.45 27.04 26.77 26.74 26.69 26.68 3 0.29 0.26 0.36 0.52 0.56 0.47 0.30 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.27 0.19 0.08 -0.02 0.01 0.02 0.05 3 27.25 27.03 27.09 27.10 27.10 27.02 27.09 27.36 27.57 27.61 27.27 26.82 26.28 25.89 25.70 25.61 25.58 4 0.29 0.25 0.36 0.43 0.48 0.37 0.22 0.10 -0.07 -0.17 -0.32 -0.44 -0.68 -0.90 -1.02 -1.06 -1.04 4 27.24 27.01 27.07 27.07 27.05 26.97 27.07 27.42 27.67 27.75 27.46 27.09 26.65 26.28 26.08 25.93 25.91 5 0.28 0.22 0.35 0.40 0.42 0.32 0.20 0.16 0.04 -0.03 -0.14 -0.17 -0.31 -0.51 -0.64 -0.74 -0.71 5 27.27 27.04 27.11 27.18 27.19 27.12 27.22 27.54 27.83 27.98 27.78 27.41 26.95 26.66 26.59 26.55 26.60 6 0.31 0.25 0.39 0.51 0.57 0.47 0.36 0.27 0.19 0.20 0.18 0.15 -0.01 -0.12 -0.13 -0.12 -0.02 6 27.23 27.12 27.22 27.33 27.36 27.29 27.31 27.53 27.70 27.66 27.21 26.68 26.05 25.59 25.32 25.21 25.21 7 0.27 0.33 0.50 0.66 0.74 0.64 0.44 0.27 0.06 -0.12 -0.38 -0.59 -0.91 -1.19 -1.40 -1.46 -1.42 7 27.22 27.06 27.18 27.25 27.25 27.17 27.27 27.57 27.76 27.77 27.41 26.96 26.42 25.99 25.73 25.57 25.51 8 0.26 0.27 0.45 0.58 0.63 0.52 0.40 0.30 0.13 -0.01 -0.19 -0.30 -0.54 -0.80 -0.99 -1.10 -1.12 8 27.23 27.05 27.18 27.26 27.29 27.22 27.33 27.61 27.85 27.93 27.63 27.18 26.67 26.36 26.28 26.27 26.33 9 0.27 0.26 0.46 0.59 0.66 0.57 0.46 0.34 0.22 0.15 0.04 -0.08 -0.29 -0.42 -0.45 -0.40 -0.29 9 27.24 27.13 27.24 27.38 27.42 27.35 27.37 27.58 27.72 27.68 27.27 26.74 26.13 25.70 25.45 25.37 25.41 10 0.28 0.34 0.51 0.71 0.79 0.70 0.50 0.32 0.08 -0.10 -0.33 -0.52 -0.84 -1.09 -1.27 -1.30 -1.22 10 27.26 27.10 27.20 27.30 27.32 27.26 27.36 27.65 27.83 27.83 27.46 27.01 26.48 26.09 25.87 25.72 25.64 11 0.29 0.31 0.48 0.63 0.69 0.61 0.49 0.39 0.20 0.05 -0.13 -0.25 -0.48 -0.69 -0.86 -0.95 -0.99 11 27.26 27.10 27.24 27.36 27.43 27.38 27.48 27.72 27.91 27.93 27.59 27.12 26.58 26.26 26.12 26.09 26.10 12 0.29 0.31 0.52 0.69 0.80 0.73 0.62 0.46 0.28 0.15 -0.01 -0.14 -0.38 -0.53 -0.60 -0.58 -0.53 12 ensemble average 27.24 27.06 27.14 27.22 27.23 27.15 27.21 27.50 27.73 27.78 27.47 27.03 26.51 26.14 25.97 25.88 25.87 0.28 0.27 0.42 0.55 0.60 0.50 0.34 0.23 0.10 0.00 -0.12 -0.24 -0.46 -0.65 -0.76 -0.79 -0.75 climatology 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62