CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.29 27.36 27.49 27.41 27.19 27.07 27.34 27.65 27.82 27.64 27.34 26.94 26.66 26.47 26.35 26.29 26.39 1 0.26 0.40 0.60 0.60 0.37 0.07 -0.00 -0.06 -0.03 -0.08 -0.08 -0.24 -0.37 -0.50 -0.53 -0.53 -0.43 1 27.30 27.33 27.43 27.36 27.18 27.15 27.46 27.80 28.00 27.84 27.50 27.06 26.77 26.60 26.47 26.35 26.37 2 0.27 0.37 0.54 0.54 0.37 0.15 0.11 0.10 0.16 0.12 0.07 -0.11 -0.26 -0.36 -0.42 -0.46 -0.44 2 27.32 27.33 27.44 27.44 27.35 27.36 27.69 28.04 28.18 27.90 27.47 26.99 26.70 26.55 26.45 26.41 26.52 3 0.29 0.37 0.55 0.62 0.54 0.37 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.19 0.04 -0.18 -0.33 -0.41 -0.43 -0.40 -0.30 3 27.32 27.35 27.43 27.35 27.17 27.16 27.49 27.79 27.92 27.71 27.39 26.99 26.73 26.58 26.49 26.42 26.52 4 0.29 0.39 0.55 0.54 0.36 0.16 0.14 0.09 0.07 -0.01 -0.04 -0.19 -0.30 -0.38 -0.40 -0.39 -0.30 4 27.31 27.32 27.39 27.35 27.27 27.32 27.67 28.01 28.22 28.09 27.79 27.40 27.14 27.01 26.91 26.81 26.84 5 0.28 0.36 0.50 0.53 0.45 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.37 0.38 0.37 0.22 0.11 0.05 0.02 -0.00 0.02 5 27.36 27.34 27.40 27.36 27.30 27.36 27.71 28.06 28.27 28.11 27.80 27.38 27.11 26.99 26.92 26.85 26.90 6 0.33 0.38 0.51 0.55 0.48 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.42 0.40 0.37 0.20 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.08 6 27.29 27.33 27.40 27.33 27.17 27.15 27.43 27.68 27.76 27.52 27.16 26.67 26.30 26.02 25.85 25.77 25.93 7 0.26 0.36 0.51 0.51 0.35 0.16 0.09 -0.02 -0.08 -0.19 -0.27 -0.50 -0.73 -0.94 -1.04 -1.05 -0.89 7 27.25 27.28 27.38 27.34 27.22 27.26 27.58 27.90 28.07 27.88 27.55 27.09 26.74 26.52 26.38 26.30 26.39 8 0.22 0.32 0.49 0.52 0.41 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.23 0.17 0.13 -0.09 -0.29 -0.44 -0.51 -0.52 -0.43 8 27.30 27.29 27.31 27.23 27.14 27.22 27.60 27.98 28.21 28.06 27.76 27.36 27.10 26.98 26.89 26.82 26.87 9 0.27 0.33 0.42 0.42 0.32 0.22 0.26 0.28 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.18 0.07 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.05 9 27.31 27.37 27.44 27.35 27.15 27.14 27.45 27.75 27.84 27.57 27.17 26.66 26.22 25.93 25.75 25.69 25.85 10 0.29 0.41 0.55 0.53 0.33 0.14 0.11 0.05 -0.00 -0.14 -0.25 -0.52 -0.81 -1.03 -1.14 -1.12 -0.97 10 27.31 27.37 27.47 27.44 27.32 27.36 27.72 28.08 28.25 28.03 27.65 27.17 26.80 26.60 26.46 26.39 26.46 11 0.28 0.41 0.59 0.62 0.50 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.40 0.32 0.23 -0.01 -0.23 -0.36 -0.43 -0.42 -0.36 11 27.33 27.36 27.43 27.41 27.32 27.38 27.74 28.09 28.29 28.11 27.75 27.28 26.94 26.78 26.67 26.62 26.69 12 0.30 0.40 0.54 0.59 0.50 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.45 0.39 0.32 0.10 -0.09 -0.18 -0.21 -0.20 -0.13 12 ensemble average 27.31 27.34 27.42 27.36 27.23 27.24 27.57 27.90 28.07 27.87 27.53 27.08 26.77 26.59 26.47 26.39 26.48 0.28 0.38 0.53 0.55 0.41 0.25 0.23 0.20 0.22 0.16 0.10 -0.09 -0.26 -0.38 -0.42 -0.42 -0.34 climatology 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.06 27.07 27.16 27.10 26.93 26.87 27.18 27.51 27.64 27.42 27.03 26.52 26.10 25.94 25.89 25.91 26.02 1 0.27 0.35 0.49 0.47 0.28 0.01 -0.08 -0.13 -0.14 -0.18 -0.24 -0.44 -0.69 -0.78 -0.78 -0.72 -0.63 1 27.07 27.10 27.24 27.24 27.16 27.17 27.50 27.87 28.01 27.79 27.32 26.82 26.44 26.32 26.26 26.23 26.28 2 0.28 0.38 0.57 0.61 0.51 0.31 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.19 0.05 -0.14 -0.35 -0.40 -0.41 -0.40 -0.37 2 27.08 27.10 27.26 27.27 27.16 27.12 27.42 27.77 27.85 27.57 27.04 26.56 26.21 26.09 25.97 25.93 26.05 3 0.29 0.37 0.59 0.65 0.51 0.25 0.16 0.13 0.07 -0.03 -0.22 -0.40 -0.58 -0.63 -0.70 -0.70 -0.60 3 27.10 27.12 27.19 27.17 27.09 27.12 27.40 27.63 27.68 27.38 26.95 26.43 26.05 25.90 25.88 25.93 26.09 4 0.32 0.40 0.52 0.54 0.44 0.25 0.14 -0.00 -0.10 -0.22 -0.32 -0.53 -0.74 -0.82 -0.79 -0.69 -0.56 4 27.11 27.12 27.21 27.21 27.15 27.20 27.51 27.80 27.92 27.74 27.36 26.90 26.55 26.40 26.32 26.30 26.38 5 0.32 0.39 0.54 0.58 0.50 0.34 0.24 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.10 -0.06 -0.24 -0.32 -0.35 -0.32 -0.27 5 27.14 27.18 27.30 27.35 27.29 27.33 27.61 27.89 28.01 27.81 27.38 26.88 26.52 26.40 26.30 26.30 26.41 6 0.35 0.46 0.64 0.72 0.64 0.47 0.35 0.25 0.23 0.21 0.11 -0.09 -0.26 -0.32 -0.36 -0.32 -0.24 6 27.07 27.14 27.24 27.24 27.16 27.19 27.42 27.61 27.58 27.18 26.64 26.03 25.57 25.34 25.25 25.28 25.52 7 0.29 0.42 0.57 0.62 0.51 0.33 0.16 -0.03 -0.20 -0.42 -0.62 -0.93 -1.21 -1.38 -1.42 -1.34 -1.13 7 27.09 27.18 27.28 27.27 27.19 27.25 27.51 27.74 27.77 27.46 26.97 26.42 26.00 25.81 25.70 25.70 25.85 8 0.30 0.45 0.61 0.65 0.54 0.38 0.25 0.10 -0.01 -0.14 -0.30 -0.54 -0.78 -0.91 -0.97 -0.92 -0.80 8 27.08 27.18 27.29 27.30 27.21 27.28 27.54 27.80 27.88 27.59 27.12 26.59 26.25 26.12 26.06 26.10 26.26 9 0.29 0.46 0.62 0.68 0.56 0.41 0.28 0.16 0.10 -0.00 -0.14 -0.37 -0.54 -0.60 -0.61 -0.52 -0.40 9 27.08 27.16 27.29 27.28 27.19 27.21 27.47 27.67 27.66 27.26 26.71 26.08 25.63 25.41 25.35 25.41 25.64 10 0.29 0.44 0.62 0.65 0.54 0.35 0.20 0.04 -0.12 -0.34 -0.55 -0.88 -1.16 -1.31 -1.31 -1.21 -1.01 10 27.13 27.24 27.37 27.37 27.29 27.34 27.64 27.89 27.96 27.66 27.15 26.58 26.18 26.04 25.97 25.97 26.08 11 0.34 0.52 0.70 0.74 0.64 0.48 0.38 0.25 0.18 0.06 -0.11 -0.38 -0.60 -0.69 -0.70 -0.66 -0.57 11 27.12 27.25 27.38 27.41 27.32 27.39 27.65 27.89 27.95 27.65 27.15 26.58 26.23 26.10 26.06 26.07 26.20 12 0.34 0.53 0.71 0.78 0.67 0.52 0.38 0.25 0.17 0.05 -0.11 -0.38 -0.56 -0.62 -0.61 -0.55 -0.45 12 ensemble average 27.09 27.15 27.27 27.27 27.18 27.21 27.49 27.76 27.82 27.54 27.07 26.53 26.14 25.99 25.92 25.93 26.06 0.31 0.43 0.60 0.64 0.53 0.34 0.22 0.12 0.05 -0.06 -0.19 -0.43 -0.64 -0.73 -0.75 -0.70 -0.59 climatology 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65