CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.59 27.14 26.76 26.54 26.46 26.37 26.21 26.20 26.48 27.09 27.67 28.02 27.98 27.67 27.34 27.20 27.21 1 -0.12 -0.28 -0.41 -0.49 -0.50 -0.52 -0.61 -0.61 -0.51 -0.26 -0.03 0.18 0.26 0.25 0.17 0.17 0.25 1 27.58 27.13 26.79 26.62 26.59 26.49 26.26 26.19 26.44 27.02 27.54 27.88 27.83 27.57 27.25 27.11 27.05 2 -0.13 -0.30 -0.39 -0.41 -0.37 -0.40 -0.56 -0.63 -0.56 -0.33 -0.16 0.04 0.12 0.14 0.07 0.08 0.09 2 27.59 27.18 26.90 26.75 26.71 26.57 26.34 26.28 26.56 27.15 27.69 28.04 27.99 27.76 27.52 27.45 27.45 3 -0.12 -0.25 -0.27 -0.27 -0.25 -0.32 -0.48 -0.53 -0.44 -0.20 -0.01 0.20 0.28 0.34 0.34 0.42 0.49 3 27.57 27.16 26.82 26.55 26.40 26.27 26.15 26.22 26.51 27.09 27.58 27.82 27.65 27.22 26.82 26.60 26.51 4 -0.14 -0.27 -0.36 -0.48 -0.56 -0.62 -0.66 -0.59 -0.49 -0.26 -0.12 -0.02 -0.07 -0.20 -0.35 -0.43 -0.45 4 27.59 27.15 26.76 26.48 26.35 26.21 26.04 26.09 26.42 27.06 27.60 27.91 27.85 27.53 27.17 26.93 26.79 5 -0.12 -0.27 -0.42 -0.55 -0.61 -0.68 -0.78 -0.73 -0.58 -0.29 -0.10 0.07 0.14 0.10 -0.01 -0.10 -0.17 5 27.61 27.19 26.85 26.59 26.45 26.31 26.19 26.28 26.62 27.25 27.79 28.11 28.02 27.69 27.35 27.17 27.10 6 -0.10 -0.23 -0.33 -0.44 -0.51 -0.58 -0.63 -0.54 -0.38 -0.10 0.09 0.27 0.31 0.26 0.17 0.14 0.14 6 27.63 27.27 26.91 26.66 26.54 26.50 26.47 26.60 26.92 27.52 28.06 28.39 28.24 27.85 27.47 27.36 27.42 7 -0.09 -0.16 -0.27 -0.37 -0.43 -0.39 -0.35 -0.21 -0.08 0.17 0.36 0.54 0.53 0.42 0.29 0.33 0.46 7 27.61 27.24 26.86 26.58 26.46 26.40 26.30 26.38 26.68 27.31 27.83 28.19 28.14 27.81 27.39 27.15 27.11 8 -0.10 -0.18 -0.32 -0.45 -0.51 -0.49 -0.52 -0.44 -0.32 -0.04 0.13 0.35 0.43 0.38 0.21 0.12 0.15 8 27.63 27.21 26.81 26.55 26.45 26.42 26.39 26.54 26.90 27.52 28.05 28.38 28.31 27.97 27.57 27.36 27.32 9 -0.08 -0.21 -0.37 -0.48 -0.51 -0.47 -0.43 -0.28 -0.10 0.18 0.35 0.53 0.60 0.55 0.40 0.33 0.36 9 27.62 27.28 26.92 26.65 26.45 26.32 26.23 26.35 26.70 27.37 27.97 28.36 28.27 27.94 27.62 27.54 27.63 10 -0.09 -0.15 -0.26 -0.38 -0.51 -0.56 -0.58 -0.47 -0.30 0.03 0.27 0.52 0.56 0.52 0.44 0.51 0.67 10 27.64 27.26 26.85 26.58 26.42 26.30 26.14 26.18 26.50 27.20 27.80 28.21 28.18 27.87 27.48 27.30 27.30 11 -0.08 -0.17 -0.33 -0.45 -0.54 -0.59 -0.68 -0.64 -0.50 -0.15 0.10 0.37 0.47 0.44 0.31 0.27 0.34 11 27.66 27.26 26.86 26.62 26.49 26.40 26.30 26.39 26.75 27.43 28.01 28.38 28.31 27.98 27.65 27.50 27.52 12 -0.05 -0.17 -0.32 -0.41 -0.47 -0.48 -0.52 -0.42 -0.25 0.08 0.31 0.53 0.60 0.56 0.47 0.47 0.56 12 ensemble average 27.61 27.21 26.84 26.60 26.48 26.38 26.25 26.31 26.62 27.25 27.80 28.14 28.06 27.74 27.39 27.22 27.20 -0.10 -0.22 -0.34 -0.43 -0.48 -0.51 -0.57 -0.51 -0.37 -0.10 0.10 0.30 0.35 0.31 0.21 0.19 0.24 climatology 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.31 26.79 26.35 26.09 26.01 25.95 25.90 25.96 26.31 26.95 27.58 27.96 27.94 27.63 27.30 27.10 27.11 1 -0.29 -0.48 -0.61 -0.69 -0.71 -0.71 -0.73 -0.69 -0.56 -0.31 -0.06 0.18 0.34 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.38 1 27.32 26.66 26.23 26.01 25.98 25.94 25.86 25.93 26.30 26.98 27.67 28.00 27.85 27.36 26.95 26.74 26.71 2 -0.28 -0.61 -0.74 -0.78 -0.74 -0.73 -0.76 -0.72 -0.56 -0.28 0.03 0.22 0.25 0.10 -0.02 -0.04 -0.01 2 27.35 26.91 26.61 26.42 26.32 26.22 26.12 26.09 26.36 26.84 27.35 27.58 27.40 26.98 26.60 26.43 26.43 3 -0.25 -0.35 -0.35 -0.36 -0.40 -0.45 -0.50 -0.56 -0.51 -0.43 -0.29 -0.20 -0.19 -0.28 -0.37 -0.35 -0.29 3 27.31 26.71 26.22 25.91 25.71 25.65 25.65 25.77 26.15 26.78 27.43 27.70 27.57 27.14 26.71 26.46 26.39 4 -0.29 -0.55 -0.74 -0.88 -1.01 -1.02 -0.97 -0.88 -0.72 -0.49 -0.21 -0.08 -0.03 -0.13 -0.25 -0.33 -0.33 4 27.34 26.72 26.23 25.93 25.77 25.70 25.67 25.81 26.20 26.89 27.55 27.85 27.71 27.26 26.83 26.58 26.51 5 -0.26 -0.54 -0.73 -0.86 -0.96 -0.97 -0.95 -0.84 -0.67 -0.37 -0.09 0.07 0.11 -0.00 -0.13 -0.20 -0.21 5 27.36 26.83 26.40 26.07 25.84 25.73 25.73 25.87 26.25 26.88 27.50 27.80 27.65 27.23 26.82 26.67 26.71 6 -0.24 -0.43 -0.56 -0.71 -0.88 -0.93 -0.89 -0.78 -0.62 -0.38 -0.14 0.02 0.05 -0.03 -0.14 -0.12 -0.01 6 27.38 26.83 26.30 26.03 25.93 26.00 26.05 26.20 26.56 27.18 27.78 28.09 27.95 27.53 27.09 26.89 26.94 7 -0.22 -0.43 -0.66 -0.75 -0.79 -0.67 -0.57 -0.45 -0.30 -0.08 0.14 0.31 0.35 0.26 0.13 0.10 0.22 7 27.37 26.80 26.28 26.00 25.84 25.84 25.86 26.03 26.42 27.10 27.75 28.10 27.98 27.54 27.08 26.82 26.82 8 -0.23 -0.47 -0.68 -0.79 -0.88 -0.83 -0.77 -0.62 -0.44 -0.16 0.11 0.32 0.39 0.28 0.12 0.04 0.10 8 27.40 26.86 26.37 26.07 25.91 25.87 25.90 26.04 26.43 27.08 27.70 28.06 27.97 27.61 27.22 27.07 27.16 9 -0.20 -0.41 -0.59 -0.71 -0.81 -0.80 -0.73 -0.61 -0.43 -0.19 0.06 0.28 0.37 0.35 0.26 0.28 0.44 9 27.42 26.91 26.36 26.03 25.91 25.96 26.00 26.14 26.53 27.22 27.86 28.27 28.19 27.83 27.43 27.29 27.39 10 -0.18 -0.35 -0.61 -0.76 -0.82 -0.71 -0.62 -0.51 -0.34 -0.05 0.23 0.49 0.59 0.57 0.47 0.50 0.67 10 27.43 26.86 26.31 25.99 25.83 25.82 25.80 25.94 26.34 27.09 27.81 28.23 28.15 27.78 27.38 27.19 27.26 11 -0.17 -0.40 -0.65 -0.80 -0.89 -0.85 -0.82 -0.71 -0.52 -0.17 0.17 0.46 0.56 0.52 0.41 0.41 0.54 11 27.42 26.85 26.33 26.01 25.86 25.81 25.81 25.94 26.37 27.10 27.81 28.26 28.22 27.91 27.59 27.52 27.68 12 -0.18 -0.41 -0.63 -0.78 -0.86 -0.86 -0.81 -0.71 -0.49 -0.16 0.18 0.48 0.62 0.65 0.62 0.73 0.96 12 ensemble average 27.37 26.81 26.33 26.05 25.91 25.87 25.86 25.98 26.35 27.01 27.65 27.99 27.88 27.48 27.08 26.90 26.93 -0.23 -0.45 -0.63 -0.74 -0.81 -0.79 -0.76 -0.67 -0.51 -0.26 0.01 0.21 0.28 0.22 0.12 0.11 0.20 climatology 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72