CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 27.16 26.70 26.44 26.34 26.26 26.09 26.08 26.34 26.94 27.51 27.89 27.88 27.61 27.30 27.17 27.19 27.15 1 -0.27 -0.47 -0.59 -0.62 -0.63 -0.72 -0.74 -0.65 -0.41 -0.19 0.04 0.17 0.19 0.12 0.14 0.23 0.27 1 27.13 26.76 26.54 26.57 26.53 26.34 26.22 26.39 26.89 27.36 27.64 27.59 27.30 26.97 26.86 26.87 26.81 2 -0.29 -0.42 -0.49 -0.39 -0.36 -0.48 -0.60 -0.60 -0.45 -0.34 -0.20 -0.13 -0.12 -0.20 -0.17 -0.09 -0.07 2 27.14 26.80 26.56 26.50 26.37 26.14 26.06 26.25 26.79 27.28 27.63 27.64 27.41 27.14 27.07 27.10 27.08 3 -0.29 -0.38 -0.47 -0.47 -0.52 -0.68 -0.76 -0.75 -0.56 -0.42 -0.22 -0.08 -0.02 -0.03 0.04 0.14 0.19 3 27.15 26.75 26.53 26.46 26.39 26.24 26.24 26.47 27.00 27.45 27.69 27.55 27.14 26.72 26.52 26.48 26.42 4 -0.27 -0.42 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.58 -0.58 -0.53 -0.35 -0.25 -0.16 -0.17 -0.28 -0.45 -0.51 -0.48 -0.46 4 27.14 26.74 26.49 26.44 26.36 26.20 26.16 26.41 26.96 27.46 27.72 27.64 27.31 26.94 26.76 26.72 26.64 5 -0.29 -0.44 -0.54 -0.52 -0.52 -0.62 -0.65 -0.59 -0.38 -0.24 -0.12 -0.07 -0.12 -0.24 -0.27 -0.25 -0.25 5 27.18 26.81 26.52 26.41 26.29 26.14 26.16 26.43 26.99 27.48 27.78 27.71 27.40 27.05 26.90 26.86 26.81 6 -0.25 -0.37 -0.51 -0.55 -0.60 -0.68 -0.66 -0.57 -0.35 -0.22 -0.07 -0.00 -0.03 -0.13 -0.13 -0.10 -0.07 6 27.21 26.83 26.62 26.56 26.51 26.39 26.41 26.70 27.31 27.84 28.13 28.00 27.65 27.29 27.12 27.14 27.13 7 -0.21 -0.35 -0.41 -0.41 -0.38 -0.42 -0.40 -0.29 -0.03 0.14 0.28 0.29 0.23 0.11 0.09 0.18 0.24 7 27.16 26.79 26.56 26.53 26.49 26.37 26.38 26.66 27.31 27.86 28.19 28.13 27.83 27.49 27.34 27.35 27.34 8 -0.26 -0.39 -0.47 -0.43 -0.39 -0.45 -0.44 -0.33 -0.04 0.16 0.35 0.42 0.40 0.31 0.31 0.39 0.45 8 27.20 26.79 26.49 26.41 26.36 26.29 26.40 26.76 27.40 27.95 28.28 28.26 27.96 27.64 27.48 27.49 27.50 9 -0.23 -0.38 -0.53 -0.55 -0.53 -0.53 -0.42 -0.24 0.06 0.25 0.44 0.54 0.54 0.46 0.45 0.53 0.62 9 27.25 26.84 26.56 26.36 26.23 26.12 26.20 26.56 27.25 27.86 28.26 28.18 27.86 27.49 27.33 27.37 27.39 10 -0.18 -0.34 -0.47 -0.61 -0.66 -0.69 -0.61 -0.44 -0.10 0.16 0.41 0.47 0.44 0.31 0.30 0.41 0.50 10 27.22 26.80 26.51 26.38 26.28 26.13 26.16 26.50 27.23 27.87 28.29 28.26 27.99 27.66 27.53 27.60 27.60 11 -0.21 -0.38 -0.52 -0.58 -0.61 -0.68 -0.66 -0.49 -0.11 0.17 0.44 0.55 0.57 0.48 0.50 0.64 0.72 11 27.24 26.79 26.48 26.33 26.22 26.09 26.19 26.57 27.31 27.92 28.31 28.29 28.03 27.73 27.62 27.69 27.73 12 -0.19 -0.38 -0.55 -0.64 -0.67 -0.72 -0.63 -0.42 -0.04 0.22 0.47 0.58 0.60 0.55 0.59 0.73 0.84 12 ensemble average 27.18 26.78 26.52 26.44 26.36 26.21 26.22 26.50 27.12 27.65 27.98 27.93 27.62 27.28 27.14 27.16 27.13 -0.25 -0.39 -0.51 -0.52 -0.53 -0.60 -0.60 -0.49 -0.23 -0.05 0.14 0.22 0.20 0.11 0.11 0.19 0.25 climatology 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 26.82 26.39 26.12 26.06 25.95 25.86 25.89 26.23 26.87 27.46 27.83 27.84 27.59 27.28 27.12 27.17 27.22 1 -0.44 -0.58 -0.67 -0.66 -0.71 -0.76 -0.76 -0.63 -0.40 -0.18 0.06 0.24 0.32 0.32 0.34 0.45 0.56 1 26.81 26.42 26.16 26.19 26.16 26.10 26.06 26.31 26.81 27.29 27.48 27.32 26.90 26.49 26.25 26.15 26.06 2 -0.46 -0.54 -0.62 -0.53 -0.51 -0.53 -0.59 -0.56 -0.45 -0.34 -0.30 -0.28 -0.36 -0.48 -0.54 -0.57 -0.61 2 26.86 26.46 26.21 26.12 26.06 26.01 26.01 26.23 26.69 27.19 27.48 27.43 27.10 26.71 26.50 26.44 26.43 3 -0.40 -0.50 -0.58 -0.60 -0.61 -0.61 -0.64 -0.64 -0.57 -0.45 -0.30 -0.17 -0.16 -0.25 -0.28 -0.28 -0.24 3 26.81 26.37 26.12 26.05 26.05 26.02 26.07 26.36 26.93 27.52 27.73 27.55 27.04 26.60 26.35 26.34 26.37 4 -0.45 -0.60 -0.67 -0.67 -0.62 -0.60 -0.58 -0.50 -0.33 -0.12 -0.05 -0.05 -0.22 -0.37 -0.44 -0.38 -0.29 4 26.85 26.48 26.24 26.23 26.22 26.18 26.16 26.41 26.92 27.41 27.52 27.25 26.73 26.24 25.95 25.80 25.63 5 -0.41 -0.48 -0.55 -0.49 -0.45 -0.45 -0.49 -0.46 -0.35 -0.23 -0.26 -0.35 -0.54 -0.72 -0.84 -0.93 -1.03 5 26.89 26.51 26.26 26.19 26.19 26.17 26.20 26.43 26.94 27.43 27.62 27.42 26.93 26.45 26.19 26.13 26.13 6 -0.37 -0.45 -0.53 -0.53 -0.48 -0.45 -0.45 -0.43 -0.33 -0.20 -0.16 -0.18 -0.33 -0.52 -0.60 -0.59 -0.54 6 26.87 26.43 26.21 26.22 26.27 26.24 26.29 26.59 27.22 27.80 28.10 27.98 27.61 27.25 27.07 27.14 27.21 7 -0.39 -0.54 -0.57 -0.50 -0.40 -0.39 -0.37 -0.27 -0.05 0.17 0.32 0.38 0.34 0.29 0.28 0.42 0.55 7 26.88 26.48 26.27 26.23 26.28 26.25 26.32 26.62 27.23 27.80 28.08 27.93 27.52 27.08 26.85 26.86 26.90 8 -0.38 -0.49 -0.51 -0.49 -0.39 -0.37 -0.33 -0.25 -0.04 0.17 0.30 0.33 0.26 0.11 0.06 0.14 0.23 8 26.91 26.47 26.20 26.12 26.14 26.14 26.23 26.54 27.13 27.69 27.98 27.85 27.44 27.01 26.79 26.84 26.93 9 -0.35 -0.50 -0.58 -0.60 -0.53 -0.49 -0.42 -0.33 -0.13 0.05 0.20 0.25 0.18 0.05 0.01 0.12 0.26 9 26.94 26.43 26.15 26.06 26.09 26.07 26.15 26.51 27.22 27.88 28.27 28.19 27.86 27.51 27.35 27.48 27.58 10 -0.33 -0.54 -0.64 -0.66 -0.58 -0.55 -0.50 -0.35 -0.05 0.24 0.49 0.60 0.59 0.55 0.56 0.76 0.91 10 26.96 26.48 26.21 26.10 26.11 26.08 26.16 26.50 27.20 27.86 28.25 28.15 27.80 27.42 27.24 27.31 27.37 11 -0.31 -0.49 -0.58 -0.62 -0.56 -0.54 -0.49 -0.37 -0.07 0.22 0.47 0.55 0.54 0.46 0.45 0.59 0.70 11 26.93 26.44 26.13 26.01 26.00 25.99 26.10 26.47 27.18 27.83 28.21 28.13 27.77 27.38 27.20 27.32 27.43 12 -0.33 -0.52 -0.66 -0.71 -0.67 -0.63 -0.55 -0.40 -0.09 0.19 0.43 0.53 0.50 0.42 0.41 0.59 0.76 12 ensemble average 26.88 26.44 26.19 26.13 26.13 26.09 26.14 26.43 27.03 27.60 27.88 27.75 27.36 26.95 26.74 26.75 26.77 -0.38 -0.52 -0.60 -0.59 -0.54 -0.53 -0.51 -0.43 -0.24 -0.04 0.10 0.15 0.09 -0.01 -0.05 0.03 0.10 climatology 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67