CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.92 25.77 25.70 25.74 26.04 26.68 27.29 27.67 27.64 27.39 27.03 26.79 26.65 26.59 26.59 26.76 27.20 1 -1.04 -1.11 -1.11 -1.07 -0.96 -0.67 -0.41 -0.17 -0.07 -0.04 -0.15 -0.24 -0.31 -0.30 -0.23 -0.05 0.20 1 25.95 25.78 25.68 25.74 26.04 26.66 27.29 27.77 27.86 27.67 27.36 27.21 27.21 27.24 27.20 27.29 27.62 2 -1.01 -1.11 -1.13 -1.08 -0.96 -0.69 -0.41 -0.08 0.15 0.24 0.18 0.19 0.25 0.35 0.39 0.47 0.63 2 25.97 25.78 25.68 25.74 26.07 26.69 27.34 27.83 27.95 27.79 27.49 27.38 27.41 27.53 27.53 27.61 27.85 3 -0.99 -1.11 -1.14 -1.07 -0.93 -0.66 -0.36 -0.02 0.24 0.37 0.32 0.35 0.45 0.64 0.71 0.79 0.85 3 25.96 25.85 25.75 25.76 26.04 26.67 27.26 27.63 27.62 27.38 26.99 26.74 26.62 26.54 26.48 26.56 26.97 4 -1.00 -1.03 -1.06 -1.05 -0.95 -0.68 -0.44 -0.21 -0.09 -0.05 -0.18 -0.29 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34 -0.26 -0.02 4 26.01 25.87 25.74 25.77 26.05 26.64 27.20 27.57 27.56 27.29 26.94 26.75 26.69 26.64 26.56 26.65 27.07 5 -0.95 -1.02 -1.07 -1.05 -0.95 -0.70 -0.50 -0.27 -0.15 -0.13 -0.24 -0.28 -0.27 -0.25 -0.25 -0.17 0.08 5 26.04 25.89 25.78 25.82 26.08 26.66 27.21 27.63 27.68 27.47 27.15 27.04 27.06 27.10 27.07 27.16 27.55 6 -0.93 -1.00 -1.04 -1.00 -0.91 -0.69 -0.49 -0.22 -0.03 0.04 -0.03 0.01 0.10 0.22 0.26 0.35 0.55 6 26.02 25.92 25.82 25.85 26.13 26.76 27.33 27.68 27.63 27.30 26.87 26.63 26.56 26.53 26.46 26.55 26.96 7 -0.94 -0.96 -0.99 -0.97 -0.86 -0.59 -0.37 -0.16 -0.09 -0.13 -0.31 -0.40 -0.40 -0.36 -0.35 -0.26 -0.04 7 26.05 25.91 25.78 25.81 26.10 26.71 27.26 27.62 27.58 27.25 26.86 26.65 26.61 26.57 26.49 26.58 27.00 8 -0.92 -0.98 -1.03 -1.00 -0.90 -0.64 -0.44 -0.23 -0.14 -0.17 -0.32 -0.38 -0.35 -0.31 -0.32 -0.24 0.00 8 26.06 25.90 25.79 25.87 26.17 26.78 27.34 27.72 27.71 27.43 27.05 26.90 26.90 26.93 26.89 26.98 27.36 9 -0.90 -0.98 -1.02 -0.95 -0.83 -0.57 -0.36 -0.12 0.00 0.00 -0.12 -0.13 -0.06 0.05 0.08 0.17 0.37 9 26.08 25.99 25.90 25.94 26.24 26.88 27.46 27.82 27.75 27.46 27.08 26.90 26.87 26.86 26.81 26.87 27.25 10 -0.88 -0.89 -0.91 -0.88 -0.76 -0.46 -0.25 -0.03 0.04 0.04 -0.09 -0.13 -0.09 -0.03 -0.01 0.06 0.25 10 26.11 26.00 25.89 25.95 26.27 26.97 27.58 27.99 27.98 27.70 27.37 27.21 27.24 27.27 27.24 27.31 27.65 11 -0.85 -0.88 -0.93 -0.87 -0.73 -0.38 -0.12 0.15 0.27 0.28 0.19 0.19 0.28 0.38 0.42 0.49 0.66 11 26.08 25.97 25.90 26.03 26.39 27.07 27.67 28.09 28.10 27.84 27.51 27.36 27.40 27.48 27.48 27.54 27.83 12 -0.88 -0.91 -0.92 -0.79 -0.61 -0.28 -0.03 0.24 0.39 0.41 0.33 0.34 0.44 0.60 0.66 0.72 0.84 12 ensemble average 26.02 25.89 25.78 25.83 26.13 26.76 27.35 27.75 27.75 27.50 27.14 26.96 26.94 26.94 26.90 26.99 27.36 -0.94 -1.00 -1.03 -0.98 -0.86 -0.58 -0.35 -0.09 0.04 0.07 -0.04 -0.07 -0.02 0.05 0.08 0.17 0.36 climatology 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.57 25.52 25.48 25.59 25.95 26.74 27.48 27.94 27.97 27.71 27.29 27.00 26.98 27.07 27.08 27.14 27.45 1 -1.16 -1.14 -1.15 -1.06 -0.91 -0.52 -0.16 0.16 0.37 0.45 0.33 0.22 0.26 0.40 0.46 0.49 0.58 1 25.55 25.52 25.50 25.67 26.04 26.79 27.59 28.13 28.24 28.01 27.62 27.41 27.41 27.54 27.53 27.57 27.78 2 -1.18 -1.14 -1.12 -0.98 -0.82 -0.47 -0.05 0.36 0.64 0.75 0.65 0.62 0.68 0.87 0.90 0.92 0.91 2 25.58 25.46 25.32 25.38 25.70 26.43 27.19 27.72 27.87 27.70 27.35 27.16 27.18 27.34 27.32 27.34 27.54 3 -1.14 -1.21 -1.31 -1.27 -1.17 -0.84 -0.45 -0.06 0.27 0.43 0.39 0.37 0.45 0.67 0.69 0.69 0.68 3 25.60 25.50 25.43 25.53 25.91 26.68 27.38 27.79 27.78 27.49 27.07 26.82 26.82 26.93 26.96 27.02 27.32 4 -1.12 -1.17 -1.20 -1.12 -0.96 -0.59 -0.26 0.02 0.19 0.22 0.11 0.03 0.10 0.27 0.33 0.37 0.45 4 25.64 25.56 25.48 25.57 25.90 26.59 27.29 27.71 27.75 27.47 27.06 26.85 26.80 26.87 26.80 26.85 27.12 5 -1.08 -1.11 -1.15 -1.08 -0.97 -0.67 -0.35 -0.06 0.15 0.21 0.10 0.06 0.08 0.20 0.17 0.20 0.26 5 25.66 25.56 25.46 25.52 25.79 26.41 27.05 27.49 27.56 27.30 26.87 26.66 26.65 26.80 26.79 26.90 27.20 6 -1.07 -1.11 -1.17 -1.13 -1.07 -0.86 -0.59 -0.29 -0.04 0.03 -0.09 -0.13 -0.07 0.13 0.17 0.25 0.34 6 25.65 25.59 25.53 25.60 25.93 26.65 27.34 27.69 27.58 27.16 26.69 26.42 26.43 26.53 26.52 26.61 26.98 7 -1.07 -1.07 -1.10 -1.05 -0.94 -0.61 -0.29 -0.09 -0.02 -0.11 -0.27 -0.37 -0.29 -0.14 -0.10 -0.04 0.11 7 25.69 25.62 25.56 25.64 25.95 26.61 27.26 27.58 27.49 27.07 26.60 26.33 26.25 26.24 26.13 26.21 26.59 8 -1.04 -1.05 -1.07 -1.01 -0.91 -0.66 -0.37 -0.20 -0.11 -0.19 -0.37 -0.45 -0.48 -0.43 -0.50 -0.44 -0.27 8 25.70 25.63 25.56 25.63 25.91 26.53 27.15 27.50 27.43 27.03 26.54 26.30 26.28 26.40 26.38 26.51 26.90 9 -1.02 -1.04 -1.07 -1.02 -0.95 -0.74 -0.49 -0.28 -0.17 -0.23 -0.42 -0.49 -0.44 -0.27 -0.24 -0.14 0.03 9 25.73 25.73 25.65 25.72 26.05 26.79 27.47 27.85 27.78 27.42 27.02 26.80 26.86 26.97 27.01 27.07 27.37 10 -0.99 -0.94 -0.97 -0.93 -0.82 -0.48 -0.17 0.07 0.18 0.16 0.06 0.01 0.14 0.31 0.39 0.42 0.51 10 25.76 25.75 25.71 25.83 26.16 26.86 27.55 27.94 27.89 27.54 27.10 26.88 26.89 26.97 26.92 26.95 27.23 11 -0.97 -0.92 -0.92 -0.82 -0.70 -0.40 -0.09 0.16 0.29 0.27 0.13 0.09 0.16 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.37 11 25.73 25.70 25.64 25.74 26.04 26.69 27.34 27.74 27.70 27.34 26.88 26.67 26.73 26.89 26.91 27.01 27.35 12 -0.99 -0.97 -0.99 -0.91 -0.83 -0.57 -0.29 -0.04 0.10 0.07 -0.08 -0.12 0.00 0.22 0.29 0.36 0.49 12 ensemble average 25.65 25.60 25.52 25.62 25.94 26.65 27.34 27.76 27.75 27.44 27.01 26.77 26.77 26.88 26.86 26.93 27.24 -1.07 -1.07 -1.10 -1.03 -0.92 -0.62 -0.30 -0.02 0.15 0.17 0.05 -0.01 0.05 0.21 0.24 0.28 0.37 climatology 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87