CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.70 25.65 25.75 26.14 26.79 27.41 27.75 27.71 27.48 27.22 27.07 27.01 26.98 27.00 27.11 27.44 27.98 1 -1.18 -1.16 -1.06 -0.85 -0.56 -0.29 -0.10 -0.00 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.10 0.19 0.29 0.45 0.64 1 25.71 25.65 25.82 26.28 26.93 27.49 27.80 27.83 27.68 27.47 27.33 27.31 27.33 27.31 27.39 27.64 28.15 2 -1.17 -1.17 -1.00 -0.71 -0.42 -0.21 -0.04 0.11 0.25 0.29 0.31 0.35 0.45 0.50 0.57 0.65 0.81 2 25.73 25.69 25.87 26.29 26.84 27.44 27.83 27.88 27.65 27.34 27.20 27.24 27.35 27.38 27.44 27.67 28.13 3 -1.16 -1.13 -0.94 -0.71 -0.50 -0.26 -0.01 0.17 0.23 0.16 0.17 0.28 0.46 0.56 0.62 0.67 0.79 3 25.73 25.68 25.79 26.17 26.84 27.41 27.71 27.65 27.43 27.16 26.99 26.91 26.85 26.80 26.85 27.21 27.81 4 -1.15 -1.14 -1.03 -0.82 -0.51 -0.29 -0.13 -0.06 0.01 -0.01 -0.04 -0.05 -0.04 -0.01 0.03 0.21 0.46 4 25.75 25.70 25.86 26.26 26.86 27.42 27.75 27.72 27.44 27.12 26.98 27.01 27.09 27.13 27.25 27.61 28.19 5 -1.14 -1.11 -0.96 -0.74 -0.48 -0.28 -0.10 0.00 0.02 -0.06 -0.05 0.05 0.21 0.32 0.43 0.61 0.84 5 25.77 25.75 25.93 26.33 26.87 27.43 27.78 27.80 27.54 27.22 27.16 27.27 27.44 27.50 27.59 27.91 28.42 6 -1.11 -1.07 -0.88 -0.66 -0.47 -0.28 -0.06 0.09 0.11 0.04 0.13 0.31 0.56 0.69 0.77 0.91 1.08 6 25.78 25.70 25.77 26.12 26.75 27.29 27.57 27.48 27.23 26.92 26.78 26.73 26.68 26.65 26.74 27.16 27.81 7 -1.11 -1.12 -1.05 -0.88 -0.59 -0.41 -0.27 -0.23 -0.20 -0.25 -0.25 -0.23 -0.20 -0.17 -0.08 0.16 0.46 7 25.78 25.67 25.78 26.15 26.78 27.35 27.69 27.60 27.28 26.90 26.73 26.72 26.77 26.80 26.94 27.31 27.93 8 -1.11 -1.15 -1.03 -0.85 -0.57 -0.35 -0.15 -0.11 -0.15 -0.28 -0.30 -0.24 -0.12 -0.01 0.12 0.32 0.58 8 25.79 25.70 25.84 26.24 26.85 27.44 27.80 27.79 27.54 27.23 27.14 27.20 27.33 27.40 27.49 27.78 28.26 9 -1.09 -1.12 -0.98 -0.76 -0.50 -0.27 -0.04 0.08 0.11 0.05 0.11 0.24 0.44 0.58 0.67 0.78 0.92 9 25.84 25.76 25.83 26.18 26.82 27.39 27.72 27.65 27.38 27.05 26.90 26.89 26.89 26.89 26.96 27.33 27.90 10 -1.05 -1.06 -0.98 -0.81 -0.52 -0.31 -0.12 -0.07 -0.04 -0.12 -0.13 -0.07 0.00 0.07 0.14 0.33 0.56 10 25.81 25.68 25.77 26.16 26.85 27.47 27.86 27.83 27.56 27.22 27.06 27.05 27.09 27.09 27.18 27.51 28.08 11 -1.08 -1.14 -1.04 -0.83 -0.50 -0.23 0.02 0.12 0.13 0.05 0.04 0.09 0.20 0.28 0.36 0.52 0.73 11 25.81 25.74 25.90 26.32 26.97 27.57 27.95 27.95 27.71 27.42 27.33 27.38 27.47 27.51 27.57 27.83 28.28 12 -1.08 -1.08 -0.91 -0.67 -0.38 -0.13 0.11 0.24 0.28 0.25 0.30 0.41 0.59 0.69 0.76 0.84 0.94 12 ensemble average 25.77 25.70 25.83 26.22 26.85 27.43 27.77 27.74 27.49 27.19 27.05 27.06 27.11 27.12 27.21 27.53 28.08 -1.12 -1.12 -0.99 -0.78 -0.50 -0.27 -0.08 0.03 0.07 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.22 0.31 0.39 0.54 0.73 climatology 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.39 25.39 25.59 26.03 26.76 27.53 27.97 28.01 27.76 27.44 27.27 27.35 27.53 27.59 27.62 27.85 28.33 1 -1.28 -1.23 -1.06 -0.84 -0.50 -0.11 0.19 0.41 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.63 0.86 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.07 1 25.42 25.46 25.73 26.25 27.01 27.75 28.15 28.19 27.91 27.58 27.45 27.55 27.76 27.82 27.93 28.16 28.64 2 -1.25 -1.16 -0.92 -0.61 -0.26 0.11 0.37 0.59 0.65 0.62 0.66 0.83 1.09 1.19 1.28 1.29 1.38 2 25.42 25.42 25.68 26.17 26.87 27.53 27.91 27.93 27.65 27.29 27.13 27.20 27.44 27.53 27.64 27.86 28.33 3 -1.25 -1.20 -0.97 -0.70 -0.40 -0.11 0.13 0.33 0.39 0.32 0.34 0.48 0.77 0.91 0.99 1.00 1.06 3 25.43 25.38 25.55 26.01 26.77 27.56 27.98 27.97 27.68 27.37 27.31 27.44 27.70 27.79 27.86 28.03 28.43 4 -1.24 -1.25 -1.10 -0.86 -0.49 -0.08 0.20 0.37 0.42 0.41 0.53 0.72 1.03 1.17 1.21 1.17 1.16 4 25.46 25.41 25.56 26.01 26.74 27.48 27.86 27.81 27.45 27.07 26.95 27.04 27.27 27.37 27.54 27.82 28.38 5 -1.21 -1.22 -1.09 -0.86 -0.52 -0.16 0.08 0.21 0.18 0.10 0.16 0.31 0.60 0.75 0.89 0.96 1.12 5 25.48 25.47 25.65 26.06 26.68 27.32 27.69 27.69 27.39 26.98 26.84 26.91 27.17 27.26 27.41 27.67 28.19 6 -1.19 -1.16 -1.00 -0.80 -0.58 -0.32 -0.09 0.10 0.13 0.02 0.06 0.18 0.50 0.64 0.76 0.80 0.93 6 25.47 25.41 25.55 25.97 26.71 27.45 27.78 27.70 27.33 26.98 26.86 26.93 27.08 27.12 27.23 27.54 28.11 7 -1.20 -1.21 -1.10 -0.89 -0.55 -0.19 -0.00 0.10 0.06 0.02 0.07 0.21 0.41 0.50 0.58 0.67 0.85 7 25.50 25.45 25.58 26.01 26.72 27.44 27.76 27.62 27.17 26.74 26.57 26.60 26.72 26.77 26.93 27.30 27.95 8 -1.17 -1.18 -1.07 -0.85 -0.54 -0.20 -0.02 0.02 -0.09 -0.23 -0.22 -0.13 0.05 0.14 0.28 0.43 0.69 8 25.52 25.50 25.67 26.11 26.74 27.38 27.69 27.60 27.22 26.80 26.65 26.70 26.91 27.02 27.20 27.52 28.07 9 -1.15 -1.13 -0.98 -0.76 -0.53 -0.26 -0.09 0.01 -0.05 -0.17 -0.14 -0.02 0.24 0.40 0.55 0.65 0.80 9 25.48 25.42 25.56 25.96 26.67 27.42 27.77 27.74 27.39 27.04 26.90 26.93 27.04 27.03 27.12 27.39 27.96 10 -1.19 -1.21 -1.09 -0.90 -0.59 -0.22 -0.01 0.14 0.13 0.08 0.11 0.21 0.37 0.41 0.47 0.52 0.70 10 25.54 25.52 25.72 26.16 26.87 27.58 27.95 27.88 27.46 27.01 26.81 26.84 26.97 26.99 27.09 27.42 28.01 11 -1.13 -1.10 -0.93 -0.71 -0.39 -0.05 0.17 0.28 0.20 0.04 0.02 0.12 0.30 0.36 0.44 0.55 0.74 11 25.53 25.52 25.73 26.17 26.82 27.47 27.81 27.76 27.40 27.01 26.86 26.94 27.13 27.21 27.34 27.63 28.14 12 -1.14 -1.10 -0.92 -0.70 -0.44 -0.17 0.03 0.16 0.14 0.04 0.07 0.21 0.46 0.59 0.69 0.76 0.87 12 ensemble average 25.47 25.45 25.63 26.08 26.78 27.49 27.86 27.82 27.48 27.11 26.97 27.04 27.23 27.29 27.41 27.68 28.21 -1.20 -1.18 -1.02 -0.79 -0.48 -0.15 0.08 0.23 0.22 0.15 0.18 0.31 0.56 0.67 0.76 0.82 0.95 climatology 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26