CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.69 25.66 25.99 26.63 27.30 27.75 27.87 27.76 27.56 27.46 27.49 27.49 27.47 27.47 27.67 28.04 28.40 1 -1.12 -1.16 -1.01 -0.72 -0.40 -0.10 0.16 0.33 0.39 0.43 0.53 0.61 0.66 0.65 0.68 0.70 0.70 1 25.69 25.86 26.30 26.94 27.56 27.89 27.89 27.70 27.47 27.32 27.26 27.20 27.20 27.29 27.52 27.95 28.36 2 -1.12 -0.96 -0.69 -0.40 -0.14 0.04 0.18 0.27 0.30 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.39 0.48 0.53 0.60 0.66 2 25.69 25.90 26.35 26.96 27.63 28.02 28.02 27.74 27.44 27.32 27.35 27.37 27.35 27.39 27.60 28.00 28.34 3 -1.13 -0.92 -0.65 -0.38 -0.07 0.18 0.30 0.31 0.26 0.29 0.38 0.48 0.54 0.58 0.60 0.65 0.64 3 25.72 25.71 26.00 26.63 27.30 27.75 27.81 27.61 27.31 27.13 27.08 27.03 27.03 27.09 27.40 27.87 28.32 4 -1.10 -1.11 -0.99 -0.71 -0.40 -0.09 0.09 0.18 0.13 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.22 0.27 0.40 0.52 0.62 4 25.75 25.86 26.25 26.82 27.41 27.77 27.81 27.60 27.31 27.16 27.16 27.17 27.17 27.21 27.49 27.92 28.36 5 -1.07 -0.96 -0.75 -0.53 -0.29 -0.07 0.10 0.17 0.13 0.13 0.20 0.28 0.35 0.40 0.49 0.58 0.66 5 25.74 25.93 26.37 26.97 27.59 27.97 28.01 27.77 27.50 27.46 27.58 27.71 27.75 27.80 28.01 28.34 28.65 6 -1.07 -0.89 -0.62 -0.38 -0.11 0.13 0.30 0.35 0.33 0.43 0.62 0.83 0.94 0.98 1.01 1.00 0.95 6 25.73 25.67 25.94 26.54 27.18 27.59 27.61 27.39 27.06 26.88 26.83 26.77 26.77 26.82 27.16 27.67 28.20 7 -1.08 -1.15 -1.06 -0.80 -0.52 -0.25 -0.10 -0.04 -0.11 -0.15 -0.13 -0.12 -0.05 0.01 0.16 0.32 0.50 7 25.77 25.81 26.13 26.69 27.23 27.53 27.48 27.21 26.89 26.73 26.67 26.58 26.56 26.66 27.11 27.75 28.43 8 -1.05 -1.01 -0.86 -0.66 -0.47 -0.32 -0.24 -0.22 -0.28 -0.30 -0.29 -0.30 -0.26 -0.15 0.12 0.40 0.73 8 25.77 25.86 26.23 26.83 27.46 27.83 27.82 27.56 27.27 27.19 27.23 27.29 27.33 27.42 27.71 28.16 28.58 9 -1.05 -0.96 -0.76 -0.51 -0.25 -0.01 0.10 0.13 0.10 0.16 0.27 0.40 0.51 0.60 0.71 0.81 0.88 9 25.74 25.71 25.99 26.59 27.18 27.53 27.47 27.14 26.74 26.47 26.38 26.28 26.28 26.40 26.82 27.46 28.09 10 -1.08 -1.11 -1.01 -0.76 -0.52 -0.31 -0.25 -0.29 -0.44 -0.55 -0.58 -0.61 -0.53 -0.42 -0.17 0.11 0.39 10 25.75 25.80 26.14 26.74 27.30 27.63 27.60 27.28 26.92 26.70 26.63 26.55 26.49 26.57 26.98 27.61 28.25 11 -1.06 -1.02 -0.86 -0.61 -0.40 -0.21 -0.12 -0.14 -0.26 -0.33 -0.33 -0.34 -0.32 -0.25 -0.02 0.27 0.55 11 25.76 25.88 26.26 26.88 27.47 27.84 27.81 27.52 27.21 27.09 27.11 27.14 27.15 27.24 27.56 28.07 28.54 12 -1.06 -0.94 -0.73 -0.47 -0.23 -0.01 0.10 0.10 0.04 0.06 0.15 0.26 0.33 0.43 0.57 0.73 0.84 12 ensemble average 25.73 25.80 26.16 26.77 27.38 27.76 27.77 27.52 27.22 27.08 27.07 27.05 27.05 27.11 27.42 27.90 28.38 -1.08 -1.01 -0.83 -0.58 -0.32 -0.08 0.05 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.23 0.30 0.42 0.56 0.68 climatology 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.45 25.52 25.94 26.70 27.51 28.02 28.18 28.06 27.88 27.83 27.97 28.12 28.15 28.14 28.26 28.53 28.67 1 -1.17 -1.13 -0.93 -0.56 -0.13 0.24 0.58 0.79 0.92 1.04 1.25 1.45 1.53 1.49 1.39 1.26 1.03 1 25.49 25.77 26.28 26.98 27.66 28.05 28.08 27.83 27.50 27.35 27.37 27.51 27.57 27.73 27.94 28.35 28.60 2 -1.13 -0.88 -0.59 -0.28 0.02 0.27 0.49 0.57 0.53 0.56 0.64 0.84 0.95 1.08 1.07 1.08 0.96 2 25.46 25.63 26.11 26.79 27.48 27.85 27.80 27.53 27.15 27.01 27.05 27.18 27.18 27.24 27.44 27.89 28.22 3 -1.16 -1.02 -0.76 -0.47 -0.16 0.07 0.21 0.26 0.18 0.22 0.32 0.51 0.56 0.59 0.57 0.63 0.59 3 25.46 25.61 26.04 26.83 27.60 28.09 28.16 27.90 27.56 27.39 27.47 27.57 27.66 27.73 27.95 28.30 28.57 4 -1.16 -1.04 -0.82 -0.44 -0.03 0.31 0.56 0.64 0.60 0.60 0.75 0.91 1.04 1.08 1.08 1.04 0.93 4 25.51 25.76 26.23 26.92 27.62 28.02 28.04 27.73 27.34 27.15 27.14 27.28 27.39 27.59 27.86 28.29 28.61 5 -1.12 -0.89 -0.64 -0.34 -0.02 0.24 0.44 0.47 0.38 0.36 0.42 0.62 0.77 0.94 1.00 1.03 0.97 5 25.45 25.66 26.15 26.81 27.48 27.85 27.85 27.56 27.19 27.05 27.10 27.29 27.38 27.52 27.75 28.17 28.48 6 -1.17 -0.99 -0.72 -0.45 -0.16 0.07 0.25 0.29 0.22 0.26 0.38 0.62 0.75 0.87 0.88 0.91 0.84 6 25.43 25.54 25.94 26.70 27.44 27.87 27.89 27.60 27.26 27.06 27.10 27.18 27.26 27.37 27.66 28.11 28.52 7 -1.19 -1.11 -0.92 -0.56 -0.20 0.09 0.29 0.34 0.29 0.27 0.38 0.51 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.88 7 25.47 25.69 26.14 26.82 27.51 27.85 27.78 27.39 26.97 26.77 26.73 26.82 26.88 27.08 27.40 27.92 28.37 8 -1.15 -0.96 -0.72 -0.45 -0.13 0.08 0.19 0.13 0.01 -0.02 0.01 0.15 0.26 0.42 0.53 0.66 0.74 8 25.46 25.63 26.06 26.70 27.34 27.67 27.62 27.29 26.89 26.72 26.73 26.87 26.96 27.14 27.45 27.94 28.36 9 -1.16 -1.02 -0.80 -0.57 -0.30 -0.11 0.03 0.02 -0.07 -0.06 0.01 0.20 0.33 0.49 0.59 0.68 0.72 9 25.44 25.56 25.94 26.64 27.36 27.76 27.74 27.38 26.95 26.73 26.73 26.79 26.82 26.97 27.32 27.87 28.37 10 -1.18 -1.09 -0.92 -0.62 -0.27 -0.02 0.14 0.11 -0.01 -0.06 0.01 0.12 0.20 0.32 0.45 0.61 0.73 10 25.47 25.69 26.12 26.77 27.43 27.74 27.67 27.27 26.83 26.61 26.55 26.58 26.57 26.75 27.13 27.74 28.27 11 -1.15 -0.96 -0.75 -0.49 -0.21 -0.03 0.07 0.01 -0.13 -0.17 -0.17 -0.09 -0.05 0.10 0.26 0.47 0.63 11 25.47 25.66 26.10 26.74 27.38 27.71 27.64 27.28 26.87 26.70 26.72 26.84 26.87 27.01 27.33 27.87 28.33 12 -1.16 -0.99 -0.77 -0.52 -0.26 -0.07 0.04 0.02 -0.09 -0.08 -0.00 0.17 0.25 0.36 0.46 0.60 0.69 12 ensemble average 25.46 25.64 26.09 26.78 27.48 27.87 27.87 27.57 27.20 27.03 27.06 27.17 27.23 27.36 27.62 28.08 28.45 -1.16 -1.01 -0.78 -0.48 -0.15 0.09 0.27 0.30 0.24 0.24 0.33 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.76 0.82 0.81 climatology 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64