CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.78 26.02 26.55 27.09 27.40 27.45 27.29 27.06 26.90 26.88 26.80 26.73 26.71 26.95 27.37 27.83 28.11 1 -1.04 -0.97 -0.80 -0.62 -0.44 -0.26 -0.13 -0.12 -0.13 -0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.11 -0.04 0.03 0.13 0.27 1 25.80 26.08 26.60 27.18 27.57 27.64 27.46 27.21 27.06 27.03 27.01 27.06 27.14 27.28 27.53 27.80 28.00 2 -1.02 -0.91 -0.74 -0.52 -0.28 -0.07 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.25 0.32 0.28 0.18 0.10 0.16 2 25.78 26.15 26.68 27.27 27.62 27.68 27.53 27.35 27.25 27.22 27.17 27.16 27.19 27.37 27.67 27.97 28.19 3 -1.04 -0.85 -0.66 -0.43 -0.22 -0.04 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.26 0.29 0.34 0.37 0.37 0.33 0.27 0.34 3 25.79 26.08 26.56 27.06 27.31 27.21 26.92 26.53 26.26 26.05 25.90 25.92 26.10 26.58 27.28 28.04 28.60 4 -1.03 -0.92 -0.79 -0.64 -0.53 -0.51 -0.51 -0.64 -0.77 -0.91 -0.99 -0.90 -0.72 -0.41 -0.07 0.34 0.75 4 25.83 26.16 26.66 27.22 27.62 27.69 27.45 27.11 26.89 26.81 26.79 26.84 26.98 27.27 27.71 28.15 28.43 5 -0.99 -0.83 -0.69 -0.48 -0.22 -0.02 0.03 -0.07 -0.14 -0.15 -0.10 0.03 0.16 0.28 0.37 0.45 0.58 5 25.80 26.22 26.78 27.41 27.83 27.91 27.72 27.43 27.30 27.29 27.34 27.37 27.43 27.61 27.92 28.24 28.45 6 -1.02 -0.78 -0.56 -0.29 -0.01 0.19 0.29 0.25 0.27 0.33 0.46 0.56 0.61 0.61 0.58 0.54 0.60 6 25.81 26.11 26.62 27.11 27.39 27.31 27.06 26.70 26.43 26.24 26.07 26.02 26.11 26.54 27.21 27.93 28.41 7 -1.01 -0.89 -0.73 -0.59 -0.46 -0.40 -0.36 -0.48 -0.60 -0.72 -0.82 -0.80 -0.71 -0.45 -0.13 0.23 0.57 7 25.82 26.15 26.67 27.21 27.54 27.52 27.25 26.91 26.69 26.59 26.51 26.52 26.65 27.01 27.54 28.11 28.48 8 -1.00 -0.85 -0.67 -0.49 -0.31 -0.19 -0.18 -0.27 -0.34 -0.37 -0.37 -0.29 -0.17 0.01 0.19 0.41 0.63 8 25.83 26.17 26.69 27.25 27.60 27.59 27.36 27.05 26.90 26.84 26.81 26.83 26.94 27.28 27.78 28.30 28.62 9 -0.99 -0.83 -0.65 -0.45 -0.25 -0.12 -0.07 -0.12 -0.13 -0.12 -0.07 0.01 0.13 0.28 0.43 0.60 0.77 9 25.79 26.08 26.62 27.14 27.42 27.31 26.99 26.59 26.33 26.21 26.09 26.04 26.13 26.54 27.22 27.94 28.43 10 -1.03 -0.92 -0.72 -0.56 -0.42 -0.40 -0.44 -0.59 -0.70 -0.75 -0.79 -0.77 -0.69 -0.45 -0.13 0.24 0.58 10 25.80 26.11 26.65 27.17 27.48 27.43 27.10 26.73 26.50 26.40 26.31 26.28 26.40 26.79 27.39 28.02 28.44 11 -1.02 -0.88 -0.70 -0.53 -0.36 -0.29 -0.32 -0.44 -0.53 -0.56 -0.58 -0.53 -0.42 -0.21 0.04 0.32 0.60 11 25.82 26.16 26.71 27.25 27.59 27.55 27.27 26.94 26.77 26.71 26.67 26.67 26.78 27.13 27.69 28.26 28.62 12 -1.00 -0.84 -0.64 -0.45 -0.26 -0.16 -0.15 -0.23 -0.26 -0.25 -0.22 -0.15 -0.04 0.14 0.34 0.56 0.78 12 ensemble average 25.80 26.12 26.65 27.20 27.53 27.52 27.28 26.97 26.77 26.69 26.62 26.62 26.71 27.03 27.53 28.05 28.40 -1.01 -0.87 -0.70 -0.50 -0.31 -0.19 -0.14 -0.21 -0.26 -0.27 -0.26 -0.19 -0.10 0.03 0.18 0.35 0.55 climatology 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 27.71 27.43 27.18 27.03 26.96 26.89 26.82 26.82 27.00 27.35 27.70 27.84 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.68 25.98 26.54 27.11 27.47 27.55 27.40 27.15 27.00 27.05 27.11 27.11 27.17 27.36 27.71 27.91 27.95 1 -0.97 -0.89 -0.72 -0.53 -0.30 -0.04 0.14 0.18 0.22 0.33 0.44 0.49 0.52 0.49 0.45 0.28 0.17 1 25.68 26.06 26.66 27.20 27.55 27.55 27.34 27.02 26.85 26.83 26.89 26.96 27.11 27.33 27.70 27.96 28.14 2 -0.97 -0.80 -0.60 -0.44 -0.23 -0.05 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.22 0.34 0.46 0.47 0.43 0.33 0.36 2 25.60 25.95 26.55 27.16 27.54 27.55 27.38 27.10 26.97 26.95 26.97 26.92 26.94 27.07 27.44 27.71 27.89 3 -1.05 -0.91 -0.71 -0.48 -0.24 -0.04 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.22 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.20 0.17 0.08 0.11 3 25.62 26.06 26.75 27.42 27.83 27.88 27.64 27.25 26.99 26.98 27.05 27.12 27.22 27.48 27.93 28.26 28.40 4 -1.03 -0.81 -0.51 -0.21 0.05 0.28 0.37 0.29 0.21 0.26 0.38 0.49 0.57 0.62 0.66 0.62 0.62 4 25.68 26.14 26.83 27.53 28.01 28.08 27.82 27.42 27.21 27.17 27.28 27.36 27.49 27.69 28.07 28.37 28.58 5 -0.97 -0.73 -0.43 -0.10 0.23 0.48 0.56 0.46 0.43 0.45 0.61 0.74 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.73 0.80 5 25.56 26.02 26.70 27.41 27.87 27.96 27.77 27.43 27.25 27.23 27.37 27.36 27.38 27.47 27.84 28.13 28.28 6 -1.09 -0.85 -0.56 -0.22 0.09 0.36 0.50 0.47 0.46 0.51 0.70 0.74 0.73 0.60 0.57 0.49 0.50 6 25.59 26.02 26.70 27.34 27.71 27.70 27.40 26.98 26.72 26.69 26.76 26.86 27.02 27.32 27.78 28.17 28.39 7 -1.06 -0.85 -0.57 -0.29 -0.06 0.10 0.14 0.02 -0.07 -0.04 0.09 0.23 0.37 0.45 0.51 0.53 0.61 7 25.64 26.06 26.69 27.32 27.70 27.71 27.42 27.00 26.79 26.70 26.77 26.84 27.03 27.29 27.74 28.17 28.50 8 -1.01 -0.80 -0.57 -0.32 -0.08 0.11 0.15 0.03 0.00 -0.02 0.10 0.21 0.38 0.43 0.48 0.53 0.72 8 25.59 25.98 26.58 27.19 27.56 27.59 27.35 26.98 26.79 26.73 26.84 26.88 27.02 27.23 27.68 28.09 28.34 9 -1.06 -0.89 -0.69 -0.45 -0.22 -0.01 0.09 0.01 -0.00 0.01 0.17 0.26 0.37 0.37 0.42 0.45 0.56 9 25.58 25.97 26.65 27.32 27.64 27.55 27.16 26.73 26.46 26.44 26.48 26.53 26.68 27.03 27.62 28.14 28.44 10 -1.07 -0.90 -0.61 -0.32 -0.14 -0.05 -0.10 -0.23 -0.32 -0.29 -0.19 -0.09 0.03 0.17 0.35 0.51 0.66 10 25.63 26.03 26.65 27.26 27.55 27.45 27.07 26.63 26.39 26.26 26.21 26.20 26.39 26.75 27.37 27.95 28.39 11 -1.02 -0.84 -0.61 -0.38 -0.23 -0.15 -0.20 -0.33 -0.40 -0.47 -0.46 -0.42 -0.26 -0.11 0.10 0.32 0.61 11 25.62 26.01 26.63 27.24 27.56 27.50 27.19 26.80 26.60 26.54 26.60 26.63 26.77 27.05 27.57 28.06 28.36 12 -1.03 -0.86 -0.63 -0.40 -0.22 -0.10 -0.08 -0.16 -0.19 -0.18 -0.07 0.00 0.12 0.19 0.31 0.42 0.58 12 ensemble average 25.62 26.02 26.66 27.29 27.67 27.67 27.41 27.04 26.84 26.80 26.86 26.90 27.02 27.26 27.70 28.08 28.30 -1.03 -0.84 -0.60 -0.35 -0.11 0.08 0.15 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.19 0.27 0.37 0.39 0.44 0.44 0.53 climatology 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78