CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 26.45 26.93 27.22 27.24 27.07 26.82 26.65 26.60 26.50 26.34 26.25 26.49 26.99 27.48 27.72 27.64 27.35 1 -0.82 -0.73 -0.61 -0.46 -0.31 -0.27 -0.26 -0.25 -0.28 -0.36 -0.43 -0.39 -0.28 -0.18 -0.10 -0.06 -0.04 1 26.42 26.92 27.19 27.18 27.03 26.83 26.72 26.66 26.54 26.41 26.37 26.65 27.20 27.72 28.03 28.03 27.81 2 -0.85 -0.74 -0.64 -0.51 -0.35 -0.26 -0.19 -0.19 -0.24 -0.29 -0.31 -0.22 -0.07 0.06 0.21 0.34 0.43 2 26.42 26.94 27.20 27.20 27.07 26.87 26.68 26.61 26.51 26.42 26.40 26.71 27.27 27.74 27.98 27.91 27.61 3 -0.86 -0.72 -0.63 -0.49 -0.31 -0.21 -0.23 -0.24 -0.28 -0.28 -0.28 -0.16 -0.00 0.08 0.15 0.22 0.22 3 26.44 27.07 27.48 27.63 27.58 27.42 27.32 27.35 27.29 27.14 27.00 27.21 27.65 28.06 28.22 28.05 27.71 4 -0.83 -0.59 -0.34 -0.06 0.20 0.34 0.41 0.49 0.50 0.44 0.32 0.33 0.38 0.40 0.39 0.35 0.32 4 26.43 27.00 27.33 27.36 27.22 27.03 26.91 26.87 26.77 26.64 26.61 26.87 27.39 27.89 28.20 28.14 27.80 5 -0.84 -0.66 -0.50 -0.33 -0.16 -0.06 0.00 0.02 -0.02 -0.05 -0.07 -0.01 0.11 0.23 0.37 0.45 0.41 5 26.43 27.03 27.38 27.41 27.22 26.96 26.79 26.77 26.74 26.68 26.68 26.95 27.46 27.89 28.17 28.11 27.78 6 -0.84 -0.63 -0.44 -0.29 -0.17 -0.13 -0.12 -0.08 -0.05 -0.02 -0.01 0.07 0.19 0.23 0.34 0.42 0.40 6 26.43 27.02 27.41 27.46 27.32 27.06 26.86 26.75 26.58 26.45 26.42 26.80 27.41 27.98 28.28 28.16 27.86 7 -0.85 -0.63 -0.42 -0.24 -0.07 -0.02 -0.05 -0.10 -0.21 -0.25 -0.26 -0.08 0.14 0.32 0.46 0.47 0.48 7 26.48 27.03 27.37 27.42 27.27 27.04 26.93 26.92 26.85 26.74 26.71 27.02 27.56 28.06 28.34 28.27 27.95 8 -0.79 -0.62 -0.45 -0.27 -0.11 -0.05 0.02 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.14 0.29 0.40 0.52 0.58 0.56 8 26.51 27.11 27.47 27.51 27.32 27.05 26.93 26.95 26.96 26.92 26.94 27.23 27.73 28.17 28.41 28.29 27.93 9 -0.76 -0.55 -0.36 -0.18 -0.07 -0.03 0.02 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.26 0.35 0.46 0.51 0.59 0.60 0.55 9 26.45 27.04 27.40 27.41 27.22 26.93 26.73 26.63 26.46 26.34 26.32 26.72 27.36 27.97 28.31 28.23 27.95 10 -0.82 -0.61 -0.42 -0.28 -0.16 -0.15 -0.18 -0.22 -0.33 -0.36 -0.36 -0.16 0.08 0.31 0.49 0.54 0.56 10 26.51 27.05 27.38 27.37 27.15 26.86 26.70 26.66 26.57 26.48 26.49 26.87 27.47 28.07 28.42 28.40 28.12 11 -0.77 -0.61 -0.45 -0.32 -0.23 -0.23 -0.20 -0.19 -0.21 -0.22 -0.19 -0.01 0.20 0.41 0.60 0.71 0.73 11 26.53 27.12 27.46 27.43 27.18 26.87 26.72 26.72 26.72 26.72 26.79 27.16 27.74 28.26 28.55 28.48 28.15 12 -0.75 -0.54 -0.37 -0.27 -0.21 -0.22 -0.19 -0.13 -0.07 0.02 0.11 0.28 0.47 0.60 0.73 0.78 0.76 12 ensemble average 26.46 27.02 27.36 27.39 27.22 26.98 26.83 26.79 26.71 26.61 26.58 26.89 27.44 27.94 28.22 28.14 27.83 -0.82 -0.64 -0.47 -0.31 -0.16 -0.11 -0.08 -0.06 -0.08 -0.09 -0.10 0.01 0.16 0.28 0.40 0.45 0.45 climatology 27.27 27.66 27.83 27.70 27.38 27.09 26.91 26.85 26.79 26.70 26.68 26.88 27.27 27.66 27.83 27.70 27.38 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 26.68 27.16 27.43 27.33 27.04 26.70 26.44 26.38 26.28 26.18 26.14 26.42 27.01 27.52 27.75 27.61 27.29 1 -0.64 -0.56 -0.46 -0.38 -0.31 -0.31 -0.37 -0.40 -0.46 -0.51 -0.53 -0.46 -0.30 -0.19 -0.13 -0.10 -0.06 1 26.69 27.25 27.60 27.61 27.48 27.27 27.13 27.18 27.16 27.10 27.13 27.35 27.87 28.16 28.27 28.00 27.60 2 -0.62 -0.46 -0.28 -0.10 0.13 0.26 0.32 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.45 0.47 0.55 0.45 0.38 0.29 0.25 2 26.64 27.10 27.37 27.37 27.22 26.96 26.68 26.49 26.36 26.30 26.43 26.78 27.38 27.83 28.00 27.82 27.47 3 -0.67 -0.61 -0.51 -0.33 -0.13 -0.05 -0.14 -0.28 -0.38 -0.38 -0.24 -0.10 0.07 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.12 3 26.67 27.39 27.84 27.95 27.87 27.71 27.61 27.72 27.71 27.61 27.47 27.62 28.06 28.36 28.43 28.09 27.59 4 -0.64 -0.33 -0.04 0.25 0.51 0.70 0.79 0.94 0.96 0.93 0.80 0.74 0.75 0.64 0.54 0.38 0.24 4 26.73 27.35 27.71 27.72 27.53 27.26 27.09 27.10 27.11 27.06 27.12 27.37 27.96 28.35 28.53 28.27 27.85 5 -0.59 -0.37 -0.17 0.01 0.18 0.25 0.28 0.33 0.37 0.37 0.44 0.49 0.65 0.63 0.65 0.57 0.50 5 26.65 27.29 27.67 27.70 27.52 27.18 26.95 26.89 26.87 26.81 26.85 27.12 27.69 28.09 28.28 28.11 27.76 6 -0.66 -0.43 -0.22 -0.01 0.17 0.17 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.18 0.24 0.38 0.37 0.40 0.41 0.41 6 26.70 27.40 27.84 27.88 27.67 27.35 27.12 27.15 27.11 27.07 27.03 27.30 27.85 28.33 28.60 28.44 28.06 7 -0.61 -0.32 -0.05 0.17 0.32 0.34 0.31 0.38 0.37 0.38 0.35 0.42 0.54 0.62 0.72 0.74 0.71 7 26.74 27.39 27.78 27.78 27.56 27.22 27.00 26.95 26.96 26.94 27.07 27.39 28.00 28.44 28.68 28.45 28.04 8 -0.57 -0.33 -0.11 0.08 0.21 0.21 0.19 0.18 0.21 0.26 0.39 0.51 0.69 0.73 0.79 0.75 0.69 8 26.70 27.32 27.69 27.73 27.54 27.22 26.99 26.93 26.95 26.94 27.06 27.34 27.90 28.29 28.46 28.22 27.82 9 -0.61 -0.40 -0.20 0.03 0.19 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.20 0.26 0.38 0.46 0.59 0.57 0.58 0.52 0.47 9 26.69 27.37 27.78 27.78 27.51 27.16 26.93 26.94 26.92 26.90 26.91 27.20 27.79 28.33 28.67 28.57 28.22 10 -0.62 -0.34 -0.10 0.07 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.17 0.17 0.21 0.23 0.32 0.47 0.62 0.79 0.86 0.87 10 26.73 27.41 27.77 27.70 27.37 26.98 26.78 26.75 26.76 26.72 26.81 27.11 27.74 28.26 28.60 28.47 28.11 11 -0.59 -0.31 -0.11 -0.00 0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.02 0.01 0.04 0.13 0.24 0.42 0.55 0.71 0.76 0.76 11 26.69 27.31 27.64 27.58 27.29 26.91 26.71 26.66 26.69 26.70 26.83 27.16 27.74 28.22 28.49 28.35 27.99 12 -0.62 -0.41 -0.24 -0.12 -0.06 -0.10 -0.11 -0.11 -0.06 0.02 0.16 0.28 0.43 0.50 0.61 0.65 0.64 12 ensemble average 26.69 27.31 27.68 27.68 27.47 27.16 26.95 26.93 26.91 26.86 26.90 27.18 27.75 28.18 28.40 28.20 27.82 -0.62 -0.40 -0.21 -0.03 0.12 0.15 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.23 0.30 0.44 0.47 0.51 0.50 0.47 climatology 27.31 27.72 27.88 27.70 27.35 27.01 26.81 26.77 26.74 26.69 26.67 26.88 27.31 27.72 27.88 27.70 27.35