CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 26.61 26.36 26.22 26.09 26.00 26.08 26.40 26.97 27.48 27.77 27.76 27.56 27.35 27.24 27.21 27.14 27.05 1 -0.43 -0.53 -0.59 -0.64 -0.66 -0.59 -0.46 -0.25 -0.08 0.06 0.19 0.26 0.31 0.35 0.39 0.41 0.38 1 26.61 26.34 26.21 26.07 25.99 26.09 26.43 27.00 27.51 27.80 27.82 27.64 27.44 27.35 27.32 27.29 27.22 2 -0.44 -0.54 -0.60 -0.66 -0.68 -0.58 -0.43 -0.22 -0.05 0.10 0.25 0.34 0.39 0.46 0.51 0.56 0.56 2 26.60 26.31 26.16 26.02 25.94 26.05 26.35 26.81 27.20 27.43 27.52 27.40 27.20 27.11 27.06 27.04 26.97 3 -0.44 -0.58 -0.65 -0.72 -0.72 -0.62 -0.51 -0.41 -0.37 -0.27 -0.05 0.11 0.16 0.23 0.25 0.31 0.31 3 26.60 26.34 26.23 26.10 25.99 26.04 26.37 26.92 27.45 27.69 27.59 27.28 27.02 26.89 26.86 26.81 26.80 4 -0.45 -0.55 -0.59 -0.63 -0.67 -0.63 -0.49 -0.29 -0.12 -0.02 0.02 -0.01 -0.02 0.00 0.04 0.07 0.14 4 26.60 26.36 26.26 26.13 26.01 26.05 26.33 26.84 27.30 27.52 27.43 27.12 26.84 26.73 26.72 26.73 26.77 5 -0.44 -0.52 -0.55 -0.61 -0.65 -0.62 -0.53 -0.38 -0.27 -0.19 -0.15 -0.17 -0.20 -0.15 -0.09 -0.00 0.11 5 26.60 26.32 26.17 25.98 25.88 25.96 26.31 26.86 27.37 27.65 27.66 27.49 27.33 27.30 27.29 27.29 27.29 6 -0.44 -0.57 -0.65 -0.76 -0.79 -0.71 -0.55 -0.35 -0.20 -0.06 0.09 0.20 0.29 0.41 0.48 0.55 0.62 6 26.59 26.28 26.20 26.12 26.07 26.08 26.34 26.82 27.31 27.56 27.48 27.20 26.97 26.92 26.94 26.92 26.85 7 -0.45 -0.60 -0.62 -0.61 -0.59 -0.59 -0.52 -0.39 -0.25 -0.14 -0.09 -0.10 -0.07 0.03 0.13 0.19 0.18 7 26.66 26.38 26.26 26.14 26.11 26.18 26.42 26.84 27.23 27.44 27.34 27.03 26.72 26.58 26.56 26.57 26.59 8 -0.39 -0.51 -0.55 -0.59 -0.55 -0.49 -0.44 -0.37 -0.33 -0.26 -0.23 -0.27 -0.32 -0.31 -0.26 -0.16 -0.07 8 26.67 26.38 26.23 26.10 26.08 26.18 26.49 26.96 27.39 27.63 27.58 27.33 27.07 26.96 26.95 26.97 26.95 9 -0.37 -0.51 -0.58 -0.64 -0.58 -0.49 -0.37 -0.26 -0.18 -0.08 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.23 0.29 9 26.60 26.30 26.17 26.09 26.10 26.19 26.58 27.17 27.76 28.07 28.01 27.70 27.40 27.27 27.32 27.34 27.28 10 -0.44 -0.59 -0.64 -0.64 -0.57 -0.48 -0.28 -0.04 0.19 0.37 0.43 0.40 0.35 0.38 0.50 0.60 0.61 10 26.67 26.39 26.25 26.13 26.08 26.18 26.50 27.04 27.52 27.81 27.76 27.45 27.08 26.89 26.90 26.98 27.01 11 -0.37 -0.49 -0.56 -0.61 -0.58 -0.49 -0.36 -0.18 -0.04 0.10 0.18 0.15 0.04 0.00 0.09 0.24 0.35 11 26.67 26.37 26.22 26.10 26.08 26.20 26.55 27.11 27.59 27.87 27.84 27.59 27.26 27.08 27.09 27.14 27.17 12 -0.37 -0.51 -0.59 -0.63 -0.58 -0.47 -0.31 -0.11 0.02 0.17 0.27 0.30 0.22 0.19 0.27 0.41 0.50 12 ensemble average 26.62 26.35 26.22 26.09 26.03 26.11 26.42 26.94 27.43 27.69 27.65 27.40 27.14 27.03 27.02 27.02 27.00 -0.42 -0.54 -0.60 -0.65 -0.63 -0.56 -0.44 -0.27 -0.14 -0.02 0.08 0.10 0.10 0.14 0.20 0.28 0.33 climatology 27.04 26.89 26.81 26.73 26.66 26.67 26.86 27.22 27.57 27.70 27.57 27.29 27.04 26.89 26.81 26.73 26.66 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 26.61 26.43 26.32 26.24 26.18 26.28 26.63 27.21 27.67 27.92 27.81 27.58 27.31 27.17 27.13 27.09 27.04 1 -0.35 -0.35 -0.40 -0.43 -0.45 -0.37 -0.24 -0.05 0.04 0.14 0.22 0.31 0.35 0.38 0.40 0.42 0.41 1 26.62 26.41 26.27 26.22 26.20 26.37 26.69 27.25 27.69 27.89 27.72 27.38 27.06 26.84 26.76 26.72 26.76 2 -0.35 -0.38 -0.45 -0.45 -0.42 -0.28 -0.18 -0.02 0.05 0.11 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.13 2 26.57 26.41 26.22 26.09 26.02 26.23 26.62 27.24 27.78 28.09 28.09 27.84 27.62 27.41 27.31 27.22 27.21 3 -0.39 -0.38 -0.50 -0.58 -0.61 -0.42 -0.25 -0.03 0.14 0.31 0.49 0.58 0.65 0.62 0.59 0.56 0.58 3 26.59 26.38 26.29 26.27 26.20 26.28 26.56 27.13 27.60 27.72 27.46 27.05 26.70 26.47 26.38 26.33 26.40 4 -0.37 -0.40 -0.44 -0.40 -0.43 -0.37 -0.31 -0.14 -0.04 -0.06 -0.14 -0.22 -0.26 -0.32 -0.35 -0.34 -0.22 4 26.64 26.40 26.26 26.23 26.17 26.29 26.57 27.14 27.56 27.66 27.38 26.95 26.64 26.40 26.29 26.19 26.28 5 -0.32 -0.39 -0.46 -0.44 -0.45 -0.36 -0.30 -0.12 -0.08 -0.12 -0.22 -0.31 -0.33 -0.39 -0.43 -0.48 -0.34 5 26.59 26.39 26.23 26.17 26.12 26.30 26.70 27.36 27.92 28.11 27.92 27.49 27.15 26.90 26.81 26.75 26.88 6 -0.37 -0.40 -0.49 -0.50 -0.51 -0.35 -0.17 0.10 0.28 0.33 0.32 0.23 0.19 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.25 6 26.57 26.30 26.20 26.08 26.02 26.06 26.36 26.92 27.35 27.49 27.27 26.86 26.50 26.31 26.35 26.36 26.42 7 -0.39 -0.49 -0.52 -0.59 -0.61 -0.59 -0.51 -0.34 -0.28 -0.29 -0.33 -0.40 -0.46 -0.47 -0.38 -0.31 -0.21 7 26.66 26.44 26.30 26.24 26.20 26.32 26.59 27.15 27.57 27.73 27.47 27.04 26.64 26.40 26.38 26.39 26.53 8 -0.30 -0.35 -0.42 -0.43 -0.42 -0.33 -0.28 -0.11 -0.07 -0.05 -0.13 -0.23 -0.32 -0.39 -0.34 -0.28 -0.10 8 26.68 26.47 26.26 26.16 26.10 26.27 26.61 27.22 27.71 27.92 27.73 27.32 26.94 26.68 26.66 26.67 26.78 9 -0.28 -0.32 -0.46 -0.51 -0.52 -0.38 -0.25 -0.04 0.07 0.14 0.13 0.06 -0.02 -0.10 -0.06 -0.00 0.16 9 26.61 26.30 26.23 26.20 26.19 26.25 26.60 27.26 27.75 27.93 27.69 27.28 26.94 26.79 26.94 27.01 27.10 10 -0.35 -0.48 -0.49 -0.46 -0.44 -0.40 -0.26 0.00 0.11 0.15 0.09 0.02 -0.02 0.01 0.22 0.34 0.47 10 26.69 26.45 26.33 26.33 26.31 26.48 26.81 27.51 28.02 28.26 28.03 27.60 27.18 26.91 26.94 26.99 27.18 11 -0.27 -0.33 -0.40 -0.34 -0.32 -0.17 -0.05 0.25 0.38 0.49 0.43 0.33 0.22 0.12 0.22 0.33 0.56 11 26.70 26.47 26.32 26.28 26.24 26.41 26.75 27.42 27.94 28.19 28.02 27.62 27.25 27.00 27.05 27.12 27.28 12 -0.26 -0.32 -0.41 -0.38 -0.38 -0.24 -0.12 0.16 0.30 0.41 0.42 0.36 0.29 0.21 0.33 0.45 0.65 12 ensemble average 26.63 26.41 26.27 26.21 26.16 26.30 26.62 27.23 27.71 27.91 27.72 27.33 26.99 26.77 26.75 26.74 26.82 -0.33 -0.38 -0.45 -0.46 -0.46 -0.35 -0.24 -0.03 0.07 0.13 0.12 0.07 0.03 -0.01 0.03 0.07 0.20 climatology 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62