CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 26.05 25.89 25.79 25.89 26.28 26.90 27.43 27.70 27.67 27.50 27.35 27.30 27.28 27.20 27.08 27.04 27.21 1 -0.76 -0.85 -0.88 -0.78 -0.58 -0.32 -0.13 -0.01 0.10 0.21 0.31 0.41 0.46 0.46 0.41 0.37 0.35 1 26.04 25.86 25.71 25.77 26.13 26.71 27.23 27.48 27.48 27.33 27.23 27.29 27.37 27.40 27.34 27.36 27.54 2 -0.77 -0.88 -0.96 -0.90 -0.73 -0.50 -0.34 -0.22 -0.10 0.03 0.19 0.40 0.56 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.68 2 26.05 25.84 25.67 25.71 26.05 26.64 27.19 27.56 27.76 27.81 27.82 27.90 28.03 28.08 28.02 27.98 28.09 3 -0.77 -0.89 -1.00 -0.96 -0.81 -0.57 -0.38 -0.14 0.19 0.52 0.78 1.02 1.21 1.35 1.35 1.31 1.23 3 26.05 25.83 25.65 25.69 26.05 26.65 27.15 27.38 27.37 27.24 27.12 27.09 27.15 27.15 27.03 26.96 27.14 4 -0.76 -0.90 -1.01 -0.97 -0.81 -0.56 -0.42 -0.33 -0.20 -0.05 0.07 0.20 0.34 0.41 0.37 0.29 0.28 4 26.04 25.83 25.61 25.60 25.94 26.55 27.08 27.31 27.33 27.21 27.12 27.17 27.29 27.36 27.33 27.34 27.54 5 -0.77 -0.90 -1.06 -1.07 -0.92 -0.67 -0.49 -0.40 -0.25 -0.08 0.08 0.28 0.47 0.63 0.66 0.67 0.68 5 26.07 25.87 25.65 25.66 26.00 26.60 27.11 27.40 27.53 27.51 27.44 27.50 27.61 27.68 27.64 27.62 27.80 6 -0.74 -0.86 -1.01 -1.01 -0.86 -0.61 -0.46 -0.30 -0.04 0.21 0.40 0.61 0.80 0.95 0.97 0.95 0.94 6 26.04 25.83 25.68 25.75 26.13 26.76 27.29 27.49 27.37 27.09 26.91 26.87 26.94 26.95 26.89 26.88 27.11 7 -0.77 -0.90 -0.98 -0.92 -0.73 -0.46 -0.28 -0.22 -0.21 -0.21 -0.13 -0.02 0.13 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.25 7 26.07 25.87 25.71 25.78 26.18 26.82 27.34 27.54 27.48 27.30 27.21 27.28 27.39 27.44 27.41 27.41 27.61 8 -0.74 -0.87 -0.95 -0.89 -0.68 -0.40 -0.23 -0.17 -0.10 0.00 0.17 0.39 0.58 0.71 0.74 0.74 0.75 8 26.09 25.88 25.73 25.79 26.19 26.83 27.34 27.55 27.52 27.35 27.25 27.32 27.46 27.53 27.53 27.55 27.77 9 -0.73 -0.85 -0.94 -0.88 -0.67 -0.39 -0.23 -0.16 -0.06 0.06 0.21 0.43 0.65 0.80 0.86 0.88 0.91 9 26.12 25.90 25.79 25.83 26.16 26.73 27.23 27.48 27.38 27.10 26.90 26.84 26.94 27.03 27.07 27.13 27.38 10 -0.70 -0.83 -0.87 -0.84 -0.70 -0.48 -0.33 -0.23 -0.20 -0.19 -0.14 -0.05 0.12 0.30 0.41 0.46 0.52 10 26.12 25.93 25.86 25.97 26.32 26.86 27.29 27.50 27.43 27.22 27.05 27.02 27.09 27.16 27.18 27.28 27.55 11 -0.69 -0.80 -0.80 -0.70 -0.54 -0.36 -0.28 -0.20 -0.14 -0.07 0.01 0.14 0.28 0.42 0.52 0.62 0.69 11 26.12 25.93 25.89 26.02 26.39 26.95 27.38 27.60 27.53 27.32 27.10 27.06 27.15 27.25 27.31 27.44 27.74 12 -0.69 -0.80 -0.78 -0.65 -0.47 -0.26 -0.19 -0.10 -0.04 0.02 0.06 0.17 0.34 0.52 0.65 0.77 0.88 12 ensemble average 26.07 25.87 25.73 25.79 26.15 26.75 27.25 27.50 27.49 27.33 27.21 27.22 27.31 27.35 27.32 27.33 27.54 -0.74 -0.86 -0.94 -0.88 -0.71 -0.47 -0.31 -0.21 -0.09 0.04 0.17 0.33 0.49 0.62 0.66 0.66 0.68 climatology 26.81 26.73 26.66 26.67 26.86 27.22 27.57 27.70 27.57 27.29 27.04 26.89 26.81 26.73 26.66 26.67 26.86 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 26.03 25.78 25.57 25.60 25.94 26.57 27.11 27.38 27.27 27.02 26.77 26.67 26.59 26.53 26.45 26.53 26.84 1 -0.69 -0.89 -1.05 -1.05 -0.93 -0.69 -0.53 -0.40 -0.32 -0.24 -0.19 -0.12 -0.13 -0.14 -0.18 -0.12 -0.03 1 26.01 25.77 25.56 25.58 25.94 26.63 27.23 27.60 27.59 27.41 27.23 27.23 27.27 27.29 27.21 27.17 27.38 2 -0.72 -0.90 -1.07 -1.07 -0.93 -0.64 -0.40 -0.18 -0.01 0.14 0.27 0.44 0.55 0.62 0.58 0.52 0.51 2 25.99 25.75 25.65 25.79 26.23 26.84 27.37 27.70 27.73 27.56 27.41 27.41 27.50 27.55 27.58 27.58 27.78 3 -0.73 -0.92 -0.97 -0.86 -0.64 -0.42 -0.26 -0.08 0.13 0.29 0.45 0.62 0.78 0.89 0.95 0.93 0.91 3 26.05 25.74 25.50 25.51 25.87 26.53 27.11 27.45 27.45 27.34 27.17 27.15 27.18 27.27 27.29 27.37 27.55 4 -0.67 -0.93 -1.12 -1.14 -1.00 -0.73 -0.53 -0.33 -0.14 0.08 0.21 0.36 0.46 0.60 0.66 0.72 0.68 4 26.04 25.79 25.56 25.54 25.86 26.53 27.09 27.39 27.37 27.24 27.11 27.09 27.10 27.11 27.08 27.15 27.39 5 -0.68 -0.87 -1.06 -1.11 -1.00 -0.74 -0.55 -0.39 -0.23 -0.02 0.15 0.30 0.38 0.45 0.46 0.50 0.53 5 26.04 25.84 25.66 25.71 26.05 26.72 27.24 27.53 27.50 27.32 27.10 26.97 26.92 26.89 26.96 27.14 27.50 6 -0.68 -0.83 -0.97 -0.94 -0.81 -0.55 -0.40 -0.25 -0.10 0.06 0.14 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.33 0.49 0.63 6 26.04 25.79 25.58 25.58 25.92 26.61 27.20 27.38 27.14 26.78 26.55 26.48 26.51 26.56 26.61 26.74 27.05 7 -0.68 -0.87 -1.05 -1.07 -0.95 -0.65 -0.44 -0.40 -0.46 -0.48 -0.41 -0.30 -0.21 -0.10 -0.02 0.09 0.18 7 26.07 25.84 25.63 25.65 26.00 26.74 27.31 27.52 27.33 27.06 26.91 26.86 26.87 26.82 26.81 26.87 27.18 8 -0.66 -0.83 -0.99 -1.00 -0.86 -0.52 -0.32 -0.26 -0.27 -0.20 -0.06 0.07 0.15 0.15 0.19 0.22 0.31 8 26.07 25.89 25.72 25.82 26.20 26.91 27.44 27.60 27.40 27.11 26.94 26.86 26.86 26.83 26.93 27.10 27.49 9 -0.65 -0.78 -0.91 -0.83 -0.67 -0.35 -0.20 -0.17 -0.19 -0.15 -0.03 0.07 0.14 0.16 0.31 0.45 0.63 9 26.14 25.93 25.80 25.87 26.21 26.84 27.28 27.43 27.16 26.80 26.54 26.49 26.60 26.70 26.86 27.00 27.37 10 -0.58 -0.73 -0.83 -0.78 -0.66 -0.42 -0.35 -0.35 -0.44 -0.47 -0.42 -0.30 -0.12 0.03 0.24 0.35 0.50 10 26.15 25.95 25.81 25.88 26.21 26.86 27.34 27.58 27.38 27.11 26.88 26.82 26.88 26.93 27.06 27.17 27.49 11 -0.57 -0.72 -0.82 -0.77 -0.66 -0.40 -0.29 -0.20 -0.22 -0.16 -0.08 0.03 0.16 0.26 0.43 0.52 0.63 11 26.13 25.95 25.81 25.92 26.25 26.92 27.39 27.60 27.42 27.12 26.86 26.73 26.78 26.83 27.03 27.22 27.63 12 -0.59 -0.71 -0.81 -0.73 -0.61 -0.35 -0.25 -0.18 -0.18 -0.14 -0.10 -0.06 0.05 0.17 0.41 0.57 0.76 12 ensemble average 26.06 25.84 25.65 25.71 26.06 26.73 27.26 27.51 27.40 27.16 26.96 26.90 26.92 26.94 26.99 27.09 27.39 -0.66 -0.83 -0.97 -0.94 -0.81 -0.54 -0.38 -0.27 -0.20 -0.11 -0.01 0.11 0.20 0.28 0.36 0.44 0.52 climatology 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87