CA NINO34 based on ERSST.v4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.79 25.67 25.76 26.15 26.79 27.38 27.69 27.68 27.47 27.31 27.27 27.34 27.35 27.31 27.33 27.49 27.80 1 -0.94 -0.99 -0.91 -0.71 -0.43 -0.19 -0.02 0.10 0.18 0.27 0.38 0.52 0.62 0.65 0.66 0.63 0.58 1 25.79 25.65 25.68 26.05 26.66 27.29 27.70 27.80 27.68 27.55 27.62 27.83 27.96 27.94 27.88 27.98 28.14 2 -0.94 -1.02 -0.98 -0.81 -0.55 -0.28 -0.00 0.23 0.39 0.50 0.73 1.01 1.22 1.27 1.22 1.12 0.92 2 25.81 25.66 25.69 26.01 26.54 27.06 27.42 27.57 27.53 27.44 27.46 27.61 27.72 27.74 27.76 27.96 28.21 3 -0.93 -1.00 -0.98 -0.85 -0.67 -0.51 -0.28 -0.00 0.24 0.39 0.57 0.79 0.99 1.07 1.09 1.10 0.99 3 25.81 25.68 25.75 26.09 26.67 27.20 27.49 27.49 27.30 27.11 27.03 27.08 27.10 27.06 27.08 27.32 27.68 4 -0.93 -0.98 -0.92 -0.77 -0.55 -0.36 -0.21 -0.08 0.01 0.07 0.14 0.27 0.37 0.40 0.41 0.46 0.47 4 25.79 25.62 25.67 26.05 26.65 27.19 27.51 27.60 27.50 27.38 27.46 27.63 27.72 27.64 27.60 27.83 28.17 5 -0.94 -1.05 -1.00 -0.81 -0.57 -0.37 -0.20 0.03 0.21 0.34 0.57 0.81 0.99 0.98 0.94 0.97 0.95 5 25.81 25.68 25.75 26.09 26.63 27.11 27.43 27.58 27.52 27.39 27.40 27.50 27.56 27.51 27.50 27.72 28.04 6 -0.92 -0.99 -0.92 -0.77 -0.58 -0.45 -0.27 0.01 0.23 0.35 0.51 0.68 0.83 0.84 0.83 0.86 0.82 6 25.82 25.67 25.71 26.05 26.62 27.13 27.37 27.31 27.06 26.87 26.77 26.80 26.79 26.80 26.89 27.19 27.60 7 -0.92 -1.00 -0.96 -0.81 -0.60 -0.43 -0.33 -0.27 -0.23 -0.18 -0.12 -0.02 0.05 0.14 0.22 0.33 0.39 7 25.82 25.62 25.65 26.01 26.60 27.13 27.41 27.40 27.20 27.05 27.08 27.20 27.26 27.28 27.37 27.66 28.03 8 -0.92 -1.04 -1.01 -0.85 -0.62 -0.43 -0.29 -0.17 -0.09 0.01 0.19 0.38 0.53 0.62 0.70 0.80 0.81 8 25.83 25.66 25.70 26.07 26.66 27.19 27.50 27.56 27.46 27.35 27.36 27.42 27.46 27.48 27.53 27.77 28.05 9 -0.91 -1.00 -0.97 -0.79 -0.56 -0.38 -0.21 -0.01 0.16 0.31 0.47 0.61 0.72 0.81 0.86 0.91 0.83 9 25.80 25.66 25.68 26.01 26.59 27.13 27.39 27.31 27.07 26.92 26.95 27.08 27.11 27.05 27.07 27.34 27.77 10 -0.94 -1.00 -0.99 -0.85 -0.62 -0.44 -0.31 -0.26 -0.22 -0.12 0.06 0.26 0.38 0.38 0.40 0.48 0.55 10 25.85 25.75 25.81 26.14 26.66 27.14 27.42 27.38 27.14 26.93 26.89 26.97 27.03 27.03 27.12 27.44 27.86 11 -0.89 -0.92 -0.86 -0.72 -0.55 -0.42 -0.29 -0.19 -0.15 -0.11 0.01 0.16 0.29 0.37 0.46 0.58 0.64 11 25.83 25.73 25.79 26.15 26.70 27.20 27.49 27.50 27.32 27.12 27.11 27.19 27.26 27.26 27.34 27.66 28.06 12 -0.90 -0.93 -0.87 -0.71 -0.51 -0.37 -0.21 -0.08 0.02 0.08 0.22 0.37 0.52 0.59 0.67 0.80 0.85 12 ensemble average 25.81 25.67 25.72 26.07 26.65 27.18 27.49 27.51 27.35 27.20 27.20 27.30 27.36 27.34 27.37 27.61 27.95 -0.92 -0.99 -0.95 -0.79 -0.57 -0.38 -0.22 -0.06 0.06 0.16 0.31 0.49 0.62 0.68 0.70 0.75 0.73 climatology 26.73 26.66 26.67 26.86 27.22 27.57 27.70 27.57 27.29 27.04 26.89 26.81 26.73 26.66 26.67 26.86 27.22 CA NINO34 based on HAD-OISST -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lead(mon) 25.72 25.56 25.62 25.97 26.63 27.18 27.50 27.41 27.15 26.86 26.74 26.73 26.74 26.71 26.80 27.12 27.58 1 -0.95 -1.07 -1.03 -0.90 -0.64 -0.46 -0.27 -0.19 -0.12 -0.10 -0.04 0.01 0.07 0.08 0.15 0.26 0.31 1 25.72 25.59 25.67 26.04 26.71 27.34 27.74 27.75 27.51 27.20 27.12 27.19 27.27 27.23 27.26 27.52 27.87 2 -0.95 -1.03 -0.98 -0.82 -0.55 -0.30 -0.03 0.15 0.24 0.24 0.33 0.47 0.60 0.60 0.61 0.66 0.60 2 25.71 25.61 25.72 26.13 26.75 27.33 27.76 27.85 27.72 27.49 27.51 27.68 27.90 27.96 27.95 28.06 28.22 3 -0.95 -1.01 -0.93 -0.73 -0.51 -0.31 -0.02 0.25 0.45 0.53 0.72 0.96 1.23 1.34 1.30 1.20 0.95 3 25.74 25.52 25.52 25.87 26.54 27.09 27.40 27.33 27.18 26.97 26.93 26.91 26.94 26.88 26.93 27.16 27.54 4 -0.92 -1.11 -1.13 -0.99 -0.73 -0.55 -0.38 -0.27 -0.08 0.01 0.14 0.19 0.27 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.27 4 25.73 25.61 25.68 26.08 26.72 27.25 27.56 27.52 27.33 27.08 27.01 27.03 27.06 27.02 27.10 27.39 27.79 5 -0.94 -1.02 -0.97 -0.79 -0.55 -0.39 -0.22 -0.08 0.06 0.12 0.23 0.31 0.39 0.40 0.45 0.53 0.52 5 25.73 25.61 25.74 26.20 26.84 27.41 27.83 27.94 27.84 27.66 27.64 27.72 27.83 27.85 27.85 27.98 28.14 6 -0.93 -1.02 -0.91 -0.67 -0.42 -0.22 0.05 0.34 0.58 0.69 0.85 1.00 1.16 1.23 1.20 1.11 0.88 6 25.76 25.58 25.59 25.92 26.55 27.06 27.27 27.11 26.89 26.68 26.55 26.48 26.45 26.43 26.55 26.89 27.39 7 -0.90 -1.05 -1.06 -0.95 -0.72 -0.58 -0.51 -0.49 -0.37 -0.29 -0.23 -0.24 -0.22 -0.20 -0.10 0.03 0.12 7 25.77 25.62 25.66 26.03 26.67 27.21 27.44 27.31 27.04 26.79 26.68 26.66 26.62 26.64 26.80 27.20 27.68 8 -0.90 -1.01 -0.99 -0.84 -0.59 -0.43 -0.34 -0.29 -0.23 -0.17 -0.10 -0.06 -0.04 0.01 0.15 0.34 0.42 8 25.79 25.65 25.76 26.21 26.92 27.51 27.81 27.73 27.48 27.25 27.15 27.17 27.17 27.25 27.36 27.65 27.93 9 -0.88 -0.97 -0.89 -0.65 -0.34 -0.12 0.03 0.13 0.21 0.29 0.37 0.45 0.50 0.62 0.71 0.79 0.66 9 25.77 25.59 25.56 25.89 26.54 27.03 27.21 27.01 26.69 26.43 26.36 26.44 26.47 26.46 26.53 26.92 27.44 10 -0.90 -1.04 -1.09 -0.97 -0.72 -0.61 -0.56 -0.59 -0.57 -0.53 -0.42 -0.28 -0.20 -0.17 -0.12 0.06 0.18 10 25.81 25.68 25.74 26.07 26.71 27.18 27.40 27.19 26.88 26.58 26.49 26.55 26.59 26.70 26.87 27.32 27.81 11 -0.85 -0.94 -0.91 -0.80 -0.56 -0.45 -0.38 -0.40 -0.39 -0.38 -0.30 -0.17 -0.07 0.07 0.22 0.46 0.54 11 25.81 25.67 25.77 26.17 26.85 27.39 27.67 27.55 27.27 26.99 26.89 26.95 27.00 27.08 27.19 27.53 27.90 12 -0.86 -0.95 -0.88 -0.70 -0.41 -0.25 -0.11 -0.05 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.23 0.33 0.46 0.54 0.67 0.63 12 ensemble average 25.76 25.61 25.67 26.05 26.70 27.25 27.55 27.47 27.25 27.00 26.92 26.96 27.00 27.02 27.10 27.40 27.77 -0.91 -1.02 -0.98 -0.82 -0.56 -0.39 -0.23 -0.12 -0.02 0.04 0.14 0.24 0.33 0.39 0.45 0.53 0.51 climatology 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26 27.64 27.78 27.60 27.26 26.96 26.79 26.72 26.67 26.62 26.65 26.87 27.26