Methods and Forecasts

(1) Reanalysis 2 (R2) is used since CFS operational forecast utilizes the R2 as initialization data.

(2) The indices for the latest 4 days are calculated using NCEP GDAS (Global Data Analysis System). 

(3) The MJO definition used here is identical to the Matt Wheeler's (Wheeler and Hendon 2004),  i.e. to represent the MJO, the first two EOFs of combined fields of OLR, u850 and u200 are used.  The followings are some details of the forecast models.

(4) CFS operational:  this is a 2003 version and two member ensemble mean is used.

(5) GFS offline: this runs exactly the same as CFS operational model (e.g. the same R2 initial data) except that air-sea interaction
is not allowed.  Four member ensemble mean is used.

(6) GFS operational:  the model keeps being updated.  Model climatology from the GFS offline model is used.  The 11-member ensemble
mean is used.

(7) AR: Autoregressive time series model.

(8) PCRLAG: Lagged multiple linear regression.

For details please contact to Kyong-Hwan Seo (