__Methods and Forecasts__

(1) Reanalysis 2 (R2) is used since CFS
operational forecast utilizes the R2 as initialization data.

(2) The indices for the latest 4 days are
calculated using NCEP GDAS (Global Data Analysis System).

(3) The MJO definition used here is identical to the Matt Wheeler's (Wheeler
and Hendon 2004), i.e. to represent the MJO, the first two EOFs of
combined fields of OLR, u850 and u200 are used. The followings are some
details of the forecast models.

(4) CFS operational: this is a 2003 version and two member ensemble mean
is used.

(5) GFS offline: this runs exactly the
same as CFS operational model (e.g. the same R2 initial data) except that
air-sea interaction

is not allowed. Four member ensemble mean is used.

(6) GFS operational: the model keeps
being updated. Model climatology from the GFS offline model is used.
The 11-member ensemble

mean is used.

(7) AR: Autoregressive time series model.

(8) PCRLAG: Lagged multiple linear
regression.

For details please contact to Kyong-Hwan Seo (khseo@pusan.ac.kr).