Climate Prediction Center weekly sea ice prediction

Sea ice prediction from CFSm5 has been discontinued. Please use the Prediction from a new UFS-based system

This page displays Climate Prediction Center (CPC) experimental sea ice forecasts for the next six weeks. The forecasts are initialized from CPC sea ice initialization system (CSIS) and produced with a coupled forecast model (CFSm5) based on CFSv2 atmospheric component and GFDL MOM5. The forecast ensemble includes 16 members. Mean bias correction is made based on the average differences between retrospecitve forecasts and observations for 2012-2019. Sea ice extent (SIE) is the area sum of grid boxes where sea ice concentration is greater than 15%. Sea ice melt date (IMD) for each grid box is determined as the first day of the first 15 day period of sea ice concentration below 15% after 1 April. Sea ice freeze date (IFD) is determined by working backwards from the last day of the forecast and finding the first 15 day period of sea ice concentration below 15% and defining IFD as the day after this period. Forecast data can be downloaded here.

Sea ice extent

Pan-Arctic

Sea ice concentration

Regions	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6
Northern Hemisphere
Pacific Sector

Sea ice melt date (IMD)/ice freeze date (IFD)

Melt date

Archive

Weekly sea ice prediction archive

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