Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jun 27 2026-Fri Jul 10 2026
El Niño (warm ENSO) conditions have emerged, with equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific continuing to increase along with the establishment of a robust atmospheric response. The CPC ENSO diagnostic discussion indicates a high potential for this El Niño event to intensify over the next several months. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was also active, with the enhanced convective phase propagating from the Indian Ocean in mid-May to the Pacific by early June, where it began to constructively interfere with the ENSO base state. Dynamical model MJO index forecasts indicate a potential for reduced intraseasonal activity, with the El Niño base state becoming the dominant mode of global tropical convective anomalies, reinforced by Rossby wave activity over the West Pacific. Towards the beginning of July, the MJO may amplify again as any remnant enhanced convective phase returns to the Pacific and constructively interferes with the base state once again. North American midlatitude teleconnections to tropical convection tend to be weaker during the summer months; however, the tropical signals favor an increasingly active East Pacific tropical cyclone basin towards the end of June into early July, which may provide opportunities for northward surges of moisture over the Southwest Monsoon regions. Dynamical model forecasts for Weeks 3-4 were not broadly consistent with warm ENSO temperature and precipitation composites, and the model guidance was favored in the production of this outlook due to the weak teleconnections this time of year.
The official mid-level height anomaly outlook for Days 8-14, the week prior to Weeks 3-4, depicts an amplified trough over the eastern contiguous United States (CONUS), with slightly positive height anomalies across the West and over Alaska. During Weeks 3-4, a 500-hPa anomaly forecast generated from a manually blended average of official dynamical and statistical model guidance shows the trough over the East gradually de-amplifying, while a pronounced anomalous ridge builds over the West. Weakly positive height anomalies are favored to persist over Alaska. This pattern suggests a potential for active monsoon convection over the Southwest, and unsettled weather across the East.
The official Weeks 3-4 temperature outlook depicts enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures across Alaska, the western half of the CONUS, and along the southern tier. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures are highest across the central and northern Rockies, and there is a potential for periods of excessive heat across the West during this period. Probabilities for above-normal temperatures also exceed 50 percent across the Florida Peninsula, where higher ambient temperatures may help overcome the moderating effect of seabreeze driven convection. Near to below-average temperatures are favored for the Great Lakes and New England, as troughing may drive below-average temperatures early in the period the subsequently moderate. Above-average temperatures are favored for Hawaii under anomalous ridging.
Dynamical model guidance fairly consistently depicts enhanced monsoonal precipitation across the Southwest, with the highest probabilities west of the continental divide over Arizona. The forecast 500-hPa ridge over western North America is supportive of enhanced monsoon convection, and this activity may be further bolstered by northward surges of moisture from any tropical cyclones that move across the East Pacific basin. Suppressed convection is favored for the western and central Gulf Coast region. While northward return flow of Gulf moisture may be somewhat limited by the ridge-trough pattern over the CONUS, periods of organized convection underneath the fast flow along the top of the ridge may provide opportunities for locally heavy rainfall. Therefore, equal chances are maintained across the Plains and Midwest. Troughing over the East may yield periods of unsettled weather, therefore, enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation are indicated. Model signals are fairly weak across Alaska; therefore, equal chances are maintained. Across Hawaii, a highly active Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the North Pacific, along with reduced trade winds, may provide an opportunity for enhanced moisture across the southeast portion of the state, while a suppressed signal is favored just to the north of the islands.
Forecaster: Adam Allgood
The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Jun 19, 2026
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period
These are three category outlooks consistent with what is currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.
The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal (N) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).
The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A), below-median (B), or near-median with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).
In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.