Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Mar 13 2026
Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 28 2026-Fri Apr 10 2026
The tropical seasonal/subseasonal signals that often influence the Week 3-4 Outlooks have been more subdued lately. Although La Niña patterns persist, Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are warming toward a neutral state, with a transition expected within the month. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak and propagating across the Western Pacific. While dynamical models suggest a brief intensification in this region, significant discrepancies remain regarding the magnitude of this enhancement before it weakens again. In the extratropics, the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event has concluded. While stratospheric winds have returned to a typical westerly flow, the polar vortex remains displaced. Although current Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) indices are strongly positive, model guidance suggests a trend toward neutral conditions—potentially delayed response to the SSW nudging the AO/NAO away from its positive state.
The large-scale circulation pattern for the Week 3-4 period is dominated by high-confidence anomalous ridging stretching from the Aleutian Islands through the CONUS, with the greatest amplitude anomalies centered over the Eastern U.S. While models consistently resolve this ridging, they diverge significantly regarding the depth and placement of anomalous troughing across Canada. Both the GEFS and ECMWF suggest a widespread Canadian trough, though the latter more aggressively pushes negative height anomalies further south into the Northern Plains. In contrast, the CFS and JMA offer opposing solutions, favoring troughing in Western and Eastern Canada, respectively. A manual blend of these models yields a forecast of widespread negative height anomalies across Canada, with the troughing extending into the western CONUS.
Given the large-scale ridging, the Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook tilts toward above normal across much of the CONUS, with highest probabilities along the Gulf States and Mexican border. While this pattern is most amplified during Week 3, it persists into Week 4 without a significant pattern change. Equal Chances (EC) of above or below normal temperatures are forecast for the Pacific Northwest and northern New England, where weaker height anomalies result in a less defined temperature signal. Across Alaska, the transition from positive to the west to negative height anomalies to the east promotes a northerly flow, particularly in eastern sections, supporting a forecast of below-normal temperatures.
The Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook favors a broad swath of above normal precipitation extending from Texas through the Great Lakes region ahead of the Canadian troughing. Conversely, a dry signal is forecast from Northern California into the Great Basin. While model guidance also suggests dryness across much of the Southwest, this is consistent with the region's dry climatology for this time of year. For Alaska, precipitation probabilities tilt toward below-normal along the southern coast and the eastern Aleutian Islands, driven by anomalous offshore flow.
SSTs around Hawaii are above normal promoting elevated probabilities of above normal temperatures for most of the islands. Model guidance also consistently supports above normal precipitation with strongest probabilities for the Big Island.
Forecaster: Laura Ciasto
The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Mar 20, 2026
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period
These are three category outlooks consistent with what is currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.
The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal (N) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).
The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).
In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.