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A non-simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model has been developed for use for long-lead climate forecasts in the
Coupled Model Project at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (Ji et al. 1994a,b). The
NCEP Medium Range Forecast (MRF) atmospheric model is used with a dynamic Pacific Basin ocean model originated
at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The MRF has a reduced spatial resolution and is tuned for more realistic
tropical circulation. The ocean thermal field, including SST and subsurface temperature, is initialized using an ocean
data assimilation system (Ji et al. 1995). Research has shown that when observed SST fields are prescribed, this coupled
model's atmospheric response is fairly reliable in the tropics but considerably less so in the extratropics. The
extratropical response is most realistic during the warm or cold phase of ENSO as reflected in the SST. Much attention
has in fact been given to the prediction of ENSO itself--the tropical Pacific SST anomaly. Such a forecast is presented
here.
In the September and December 1993 issues of this Bulletin, the expected forecast skill of the coupled model
version used in 1993 (called CMP6) was shown. A horseshoe-shaped spatial pattern of maximum model skill was noted,
with highest equatorial skill near the date line and higher skill just north or south of the equator than immediately along
it to the east of 165oW. The model generally outperformed persistence by a substantial margin in forecasting the Niño
3 and Niño 4 regions. A seasonal dependence in skill was noted, where forecasts were affected by a "spring barrier"
as found both in other dynamical as well as statistical predictive models.
Starting with the forecasts presented in the September 1994 issue, the model was upgraded with a refinement of
the flux climatology and the installation of a MOS correction for the stress anomalies produced by the atmospheric
model. Skills consequently improved as the high skill area extended farther eastward into the western part of the Niño
3 region. Figures 2-1 and 2-2 of the September 1994 issue show a comparison of hindcast skills between the improved
(CMP9) and the previous model versions as a function of lead time for Niño 3 and Niño 4.
In spring 1995, another improvement was implemented, resulting in the CMP10 version (Ji et al. 1996). While
CMP9 contained a negative feedback procedure for coupling the anomalous net heat flux, CMP10 used anomaly
coupling for the net heat flux forcing. Mean skills were not as different between CMP9 and CMP10 as they were for
CMP6 and CMP9; however, CMP10 behaved more realistically for high amplitude SST anomalies. CMP9, with its
negative feedback mechanism, ran the danger of damping strong ENSO events too much and/or too soon.
The most recent improvement of the NCEP coupled model was completed during summer 1996, and is used in the
forecasts presented here. This current version, called CMP12, has the highest hindcast skills in the model's history over
the central and eastern equatorial Pacific for 1981-95, exceeding 0.8 correlation skill in much of that area for 4-6 month
lead hindcasts. Upgrades in CMP12 include improvements in the data assimilation system, as well as model
improvements such as better mixing in the ocean model and more representative anomalous e-p (evaporation-precipitation) flux forcing in the coupling. CMP12 forecasts out to 6 months lead are now updated on a weekly basis
and are available on Internet site http://nic/fb4.noaa.gov:8000/research/climate/html.
The CMP12 coupled model forecasts for the SST anomaly field averaged over Dec-Jan-Feb 1996-97 (no lead),
Mar-Apr-May 1997 (3 months lead) and Jun-Jul-Aug 1997 (6 months lead) are shown in Fig. 1, where the systematic
model bias for hindcasts over the 1981-95 period has been subtracted. This forecast is actually the mean of an ensemble
of 7 to 11 individual cases, each based on a different one- to two-week-apart initial ocean condition ranging from early
October through early December 1996.
The forecast shows a warming between winter 1996-97 and summer 1997, changing the initial negative anomalies
along the equator into positives by late spring and summer. The outlook described by this forecast is warmer than that
of the CMP12 initialized 3 months earlier, in which the warming was more limited to parallel bands in the Tropics both
north and south of the equator but not along the immediate equator. Fig. 2 shows the Niño 3 and Niño 3.4 forecasts in
the form of time series for the three lead times used to form the 3-month forecast averages used in Fig. 1. The warming
trend in the SST forecast is clear in this format also.
The observed anomalous SST and subsurface equatorial temperature field for the week centered on November 27
(Fig. 3) show negative subsurface sea temperature anomalies to down to 100 to 150 m depth in much of the eastern half
of the tropical Pacific Basin, especially east of 140oW. Positive subsurface anomalies appear in the western Pacific and
in the central Pacific at roughly 150 m, underlying the negative anomalies in the central Pacific. Compared to 3 months
ago, both the negative and the positive anomalies have remained in approximately the same locations, but the cold water
has somewhat consolidated, creating a stronger "frontal zone" near 145oW at 150 m depth. A transition to warmer SST
in the Niño 3/Niño 3.4 regions does not appear to have yet begun as might have been expected on the basis of the
empirically based 1 to 1.5 year lag between the anomaly in the subsurface western Pacific and the future SST farther
east (Smith et al. 1995).
Ji, M., A. Kumar and A. Leetmaa, 1994a: A multi-season climate forecast system at the National Meteorological
Center. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., 75, 569-577.
Ji, M., A. Kumar and A. Leetmaa, 1994b: An experimental coupled forecast system at the National Meteorological
Center: Some early results. Tellus, 46A, 398-418.
Ji, M., A. Leetmaa and J. Derber, 1995: An ocean analysis system for seasonal to interannual climate studies.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 460-481.
Ji, M., A. Leetmaa and V.E. Kousky, 1996: Coupled model forecasts of ENSO during the 1980s and 1990s at the
National Meteorological Center. J. Climate, 9, in press.
Smith, T.M., A. G. Barnston, M. Ji and M. Chelliah, 1995: The impact of Pacific Ocean subsurface data on
operational prediction of tropical Pacific SST at the NCEP. Wea. Forecasting, 10, 708-714.
Fig. 1. NCEP coupled model SST anomaly forecast fields for Dec-Jan-Feb 1996-97, Mar-Apr-May 1997 and Jun-Jul-Aug 1997. The CMP12 version of the model is used. Each forecast is an average of about 13 individual ensemble
members, each based on a different mean of an ensemble of 7 to 11 individual cases, each based on a different one- to
two-week-apart initial ocean condition ranging from early October through early December 1996 (see text).
Fig. 2. NCEP coupled model SST anomaly forecast time series for Niño 3 and Niño 3.4 for Dec, Jan and Feb 1996-97 (as 1-month means; top panels); Mar, Apr, May (middle panels); and Jun, Jul, Aug 1997 (bottom panels). The broken
line in each panel represents the SST anomaly forecast (oC), and the solid line the observed SST anomaly. The
predictions represent the mean of three ensemble mean forecasts, each for one of the 3 most recent months, respectively,
and each produced by forecasts from two to three individual 1 to 2-week-apart initial conditions per month.
Fig. 3. Equatorial depth-longitude section of ocean temperature anomaly with respect to the 1983-92 mean for the
week centered on November 27, 1996. Dashed contours denote negative anomalies.