Dynamical methods: The Scripps/MPI hybrid coupled model predicts strong warmth through winter 1997-98, dropping to normal by May '98, cold conditions by Oct '98. The UCLA hybrid coupled model predicts this El Niño to peak in fall '97 but strongly linger into early '98. The standard Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory model predicts normal conditions for winter 1997-98, some cooling by Jul '98; the new (LDEO2) model calls for slightly cool through Jul '98. The NCEP coupled model calls for strong El Niño conditions through winter 1997-98, moderating by summer '98. The COLA coupled model forecasts El Niño conditions until Jan '98, rapidly cooling through neutral by Jun '98 and to strongly cold by winter 1998-99. The Australian BMRC low order coupled model predicts moderate to strong El Niño conditions peaking near Nov '97, returning toward normal by Jun '98 and below normal by Feb '99. The Oxford coupled model calls for slight warming by late 1997; the new model design (predicting change from ICs) forecasts strong El Niño conditions for rest of '97 and early '98.

Statistical methods: CDC's inverse modeling predicts moderately strong El Niño conditions in boreal fall 1997, weakening to only slight positive anomalies by summer '98; warming northern tropical Atlantic and Caribbean SST through winter/spring 1997-98, some cooling by late spring '98. UCLA's (M)SSA-MEM predicts moderately warm Niño 3 SST peaking fall/winter 1997-98 and declining during 1998; and SOI remaining below normal through mid-1998. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts strong El Niño conditions for Niño 3.4 (120-170W) through mid-spring 1998, peaking near Jan 1998, returning to normal late summer '98. NOAA's constructed analog model predicts quite strong El Niño condi-tions for Niño 3.4 through spring 1998 (peaking winter 1997-98), then rapidly declining. NCEP's 3-model consolidated forecast calls for strong El Niño conditions through late spring 1998 (peaking early spring), then rapidly declining. The CSU/AOML ENSO CLIPER model predicts strong El Niño conditions, peaking in winter 1997-98 and returning to normal or slightly below by fall '98.

Dynamical methods: NCEP coupled model using predicted SST forecasts warm northern tier of U.S. and most of Canada Jan-Feb-Mar '98, cool New Mexico, south Texas.

Statistical methods: NCEP/CPC's optimal climate normals predicts warm in East and the West (esp. Southwest) for Jan-Feb-Mar '98. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts warm far West, north central U.S., Great Lakes, New England, southwestern Alaska and panhandle, cold in Southeast and northern Hawaii Jan-Feb-Mar 1998. NCEP/CPC's screening multiple regression predicts warm West, and Florida, cold most of middle third of U.S. for Oct-Nov-Dec '97. The CCA of the Atmospheric Environment Service in Downsview, Ontario predicts warm for Dec-Jan-Feb 1997-98 in most of Canada, especially in western Ontario and Manitoba.

Dynamical methods: NCEP coupled model using predicted SST forecasts wet in southeastern and southwestern and far western U.S. Jan-Feb-Mar '98, dry Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, western Canada, Central America.

Statistical methods: NCEP/CPC's optimal climate normals predicts dry Ohio Valley, wet parts of South Jan-Feb-Mar '98. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts dry northern tier of U.S., Ohio Valley and central and northern Hawaii, wet extreme South and Arizona, parts of Alaska Jan-Feb-Mar '98. NCEP/CPC's screening multiple regression predicts dry in northern Rockies and Seattle region for Oct-Nov-Dec '97, enhanced rain southern Florida, Pennsylvania and part of Southwest. The CCA of the Atmospheric Environment Service in Downsview, Ontario calls for dry conditions in British Columbia, Alberta and southern Saskatchewan for Dec-Jan-Feb 1997-98, wet in much of Northwest Territories.

Dynamical methods: The UK Met Office model predicts enhanced rainfall in eastern Africa north of 10S, and dry in 10-20S region, for Oct-Nov-Dec '97.

Statistical methods: The African Desk/NCEP CCA predicts below normal rainfall in most of southern Africa for Jan-Feb-Mar 1998. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts dry conditions at tropical Pacific islands west of date line, or far enough north or south of equator east of date line, for boreal winter/spring 1997-98; enhanced rainfall at the more equatorial stations east of the date line. The regression-based forecast of ANAM (Ivory Coast Meteorological Service)/ IMGA-CNR (Bologna, Italy) called for only 79% of 1961-90 mean rainfall for Ivory Coast of Africa for Jul-Aug-Sep '97 (forecast was issued in June; article appears in this issue). The empirical forecast of Univ. Républica, Uruguay, calls for a wetter than normal Nov-Dec 1997 in all regions of Uruguay.

Statistical methods: The CSU LAD regression approach forecasts near normal Atlantic tropical storm activity for '97. The Poisson, logistic, and OLS regression models of Florida State Univ. predict near to below normal overall Atlantic tropical storm activity for '97, but an enhanced probability of an intense hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

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