Dynamical methods: The improved Scripps/MPI hybrid coupled model predicts marked warmth through winter 1997-98, peaking slightly before winter. The standard Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory model predicts cool conditions through fall 1997, warming to neutral by winter and to above normal during 1998; the new (LDEO2) model calls for cool through spring 1998, warming thereafter. The NCEP coupled model calls for strong El Niño conditions through winter 1997-98. The COLA coupled model forecasts a moderate to strong El Niño episode, peaking near winter 1997-98. The Australian BMRC low order coupled model predicts moderate to strong El Niño conditions this summer and fall, largely dissipating by late winter 1996-97. The Oxford coupled model calls for neutral to slight warming by late 1997; the new model design (predicting change from ICs) forecasts moderate El Niño conditions for fall and winter 1997-98.
Statistical methods: CDC's inverse modeling predicts mature El
Niño conditions through winter 1997-98; warm but slightly decreasing
northern tropical Atlantic SST, and warm and slightly increasing Caribbean
SST, during rest of 1997. The Australian BMRC non-linear analogue predicts
much below normal SOI to August 1997. UCLA's (M)SSA-MEM predicts somewhat
warm Niño 3 SST, peaking fall 1997 and declining during winter 1997-98;
and SOI moving to below normal. Univ. of British Columbia's neural net
model predicts continuing moderate El Niño conditions through winter
1997-98. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts moderate El Niño conditions for
Niño 3.4 (120-170W) for the next 12 months, peaking spring 1998.
NOAA's constructed analog model predicts El Niño conditions for
Niño 3.4 through spring 1998, peaking in fall/winter 1997-98. NCEP's
4-model consolidated forecast calls for moderate El Niño conditions
through spring 1998, peaking in late fall '97 and again in late spring
'98. The CSU/AOML ENSO CLIPER model predicts fairly strong El Niño
conditions, peaking in winter 1997-98. NCEP/CPC's CCA for U.S. coastal
SST calls for warm SST southern Hawaii and Washington/Oregon coast, cool
SST Gulf of Mexico/Southeast U.S. coasts Jun-Jul-Aug '97, warm west U.S.
coast and cold Gulf of Mexico coast Jan-Feb-Mar '98.
Dynamical methods: NCEP coupled model using predicted SST forecasts warm Pacific Northwest Jul-Aug-Sep '97.
Statistical methods: NCEP/CPC's optimal climate normals predicts
warm parts of East and Nevada, cool midsection for Jul-Aug-Sep '97; warm
in East and the West (esp. Southwest) for Jan-Feb-Mar '97. NCEP/CPC's CCA
predicts warm East, Texas, parts of West, Alaska, southern Hawaii Jul-Aug-Sep
'97; warm Calif., Northeast, Midwest & Great Lakes, cold northern Hawaii
Jan-Feb-Mar 1998. NCEP/CPC's screening multiple regression predicts warm
in Mid-Atlantic, Florida, Southwest, Great Lakes; cool Maine, Dakotas,
Alabama Jul-Aug-Sep '97. For Oct-Nov-Dec '97 the regression predicts warm
West, central Rockies, Florida; cold parts of midsection. The CCA of the
Atmospheric Environment Service in Downsview, Ontario predicts warm for
Jan-Feb-Mar 1998 in southern two-thirds of Canada, especially in southern
Ontario and Manitoba.
Statistical Methods: The UK Met. Office predicts normal to slightly
cool for central England for Jul-Aug '97.
Statistical methods: NCEP/CPC's optimal climate normals predicts
dryness North Carolina Jul-Aug-Sep '97; dry Ohio Valley, we parts of South
Jan-Feb-Mar '98. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts wet Great Lakes, northern Plains,
northern Hawaii Jul-Aug-Sep '97; dry northern tier and Hawaii, wet extreme
South, part of Alaska Jan-Feb-Mar '98. NCEP/CPC's screening multiple regression
predicts for Jul-Aug-Sep '97 rainy near Iowa, dry northern Minnesota. The
CCA of the Atmospheric Environment Service in Downsview, Ontario calls
for dry conditions in most of British Columbia, Alberta and southern Saskatchewan
for Jan-Feb-Mar 1998.
Statistical methods: The Univ. of Chile Dept. of Geophysics predicts
normal to above normal rainfall for central Chile for austral winter (Jul-Aug)
1997. Jiangsu Meteorological Institute/Observatory screening regression
calls for wet conditions in the Yangtze-Huaihe Basins of central-east China
late June to mid-July 1997.
Dynamical methods: The UK Met Office model predicts somewhat below-average rain in much of northern Africa, as well as for India, for boreal summer '97 rainy season.
Statistical methods: The UK Met Office
regression/discriminant analysis forecasts mainly dry conditions
for northern Africa (low to moderate confidence). The Univ. of
Wisconsin neural net predicts slightly below average "short rains"
at coast of East Africa for boreal autumn '97. The African Desk/NCEP
CCA predicts near to slightly above normal rainfall in western and
central Sahel, near to slightly below normal in eastern Sahel, for
Jul-Sep '97. NCEP/CPC's CCA predicts development of dry conditions
at tropical Pacific islands west of date line, or far enough north
or south of equator east of date line, for boreal winter/spring
1997-98; enhanced rainfall at the more equatorial stations east of
the date line. The regression-based forecast of ANAM (Ivory Coast
Meteorological Service)/ IMGA-CNR (Bologna, Italy) calls for only 79% of
1961-90 mean rainfall for Ivory Coast for Jul-Aug-Sep '97 (article will
appear in September issue).
Statistical methods: The CSU LAD regression approach forecasts
slightly to somewhat above normal Atlantic tropical storm activity for
'97.