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Categorical Outlooks Day 8-14

Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks Temperature Hazards Precipitation Hazards Wind Hazards Snow Hazards

Valid Saturday August 03, 2024 to Friday August 09, 2024

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 26 2024

Synopsis: A strengthening and westward shifting area of mid-level high pressure supports an elevated risk of excessive heat conditions along with increased chances for high winds for the western half of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). A secondary area of strong mid-level high pressure centered over the New England is expected to maintain elevated chances for excessive heat for much of the Mid-Atlantic, eastern Great Lakes and the Northeast through the middle of week-2. A healthier monsoon circulation, as well as possible tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific leads to increased chances for heavy precipitation over parts of the Desert Southwest. Possible tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean leads to increased risk for heavy precipitation and high winds to portions of the eastern Gulf States.

Hazards

• High risk of excessive heat for parts of the Northern intermountain, northern Great Basin, Rockies, and Northern and Central High Plains, Sat-Mon, Aug 3-5.
• Moderate risk of excessive heat for parts of California, Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Rockies and the High Plains, Sat-Fri, Aug 3-9.
• Moderate risk of excessive heat for the Northeast, eastern Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic region, Sat-Wed, Aug 3-7.
• Slight risk of excessive heat for much of the CONUS, except for parts of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, Southern Appalachians, and Southeast, Sat-Fri, Aug 3-9.
• Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Desert Southwest, Sat-Wed, Aug 3-7.
• Slight risk of high winds for much of the western CONUS, and High Plains, Sat-Wed, Aug 3-7
• Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley, Sat-Tue, Aug 3-6.
• Slight risk of high winds for parts of the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley, Sat-Wed, Aug 3-7.
• Rapid Onset Drought risk for much of the Great Plains, and into western Missouri.

Detailed Summary

For Monday July 29 - Friday August 02: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Saturday August 03 - Friday August 09:

Forecaster: Nick Novella

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts