HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook
For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards
U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made April 25, 2025 | About the Hazards Outlook
| Categorical Outlooks Day 8-14 |
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks |
 |
Valid Saturday May 03, 2025 to Friday May 09, 2025
US Hazards OutlookNWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT April 25 2025
Synopsis: *** Week-2 U.S. Hazards Outlook will be updated later this afternoon Eastern time ***
At the outset of week-2 surface low pressure is forecast to move from New England into southern Quebec, with a trailing cold front extending across the east-central contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and the Southern Plains. This front is forecast to become stationary, which favors enhanced chances of heavy precipitation and thunderstorms across portions of this region continuing through most of week-2. Broad mid-level high pressure is forecast to develop across the CONUS later in week-2, favoring increased chances for above-normal temperatures over many areas.
Hazards
- *** Week-2 U.S. Hazards Outlook will be updated later this afternoon Eastern time ***
- Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for much of southern Oklahoma and Texas, Sat-Wed, May 3-7.
- Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southern and Central Plains, and the Lower Mississippi Valley, Sat-Fri, May 3-9.
- Possible flooding for the Lower Mississippi River.
For Monday April 28 - Friday May 02: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards
For Saturday May 03 - Friday May 09: *** Week-2 U.S. Hazards Outlook will be updated later this afternoon Eastern time ***
At the beginning of week-2, as surface low pressure departs New England and moves into southern Quebec, an associated trailing cold front is predicted to extend across the east-central CONUS and the Southern Plains, serving as a focus for continued increased chances of heavy precipitation and thunderstorms. As the baroclinic zone stalls, the heavier precipitation amounts are favored over portions of the Southern and Central Plains, and the Lower Mississippi Valley, where a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for May 3-9. This means there is at least a 20 percent chance of rainfall amounts exceeding the 85th climatological percentile and 1-inch. A moderate risk (40 percent or greater) is depicted over much of southern Oklahoma and Texas from May 3-7. These risk areas are supported by the Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) precipitation guidance from primarily the ECENS solution (and to a lesser degree from the GEFS and CMCE), and by raw 0z ECENS precipitation forecasts. This is the second consecutive day of strong precipitation signals across the Southern Plains indicated by the raw 0z ECENS precipitation forecasts. As such, this is a major consideration for introducing the moderate risk of heavy precipitation, not so much that the GEFS and CMCE models have come into better agreement with the ECENS. Compared to yesterday, the slight risk area of heavy precipitation is very similar in terms of spatial coverage, though extended farther out in time. In addition, a moderate risk has been introduced today over southern portions of Oklahoma and much of Texas.
A possible flooding hazard remains posted across the Lower Mississippi River given the potential for new and renewed rises in water levels during week-2 tied to any additional rainfall over the region associated with the stationary front, as well as runoff from rainfall upstream. Main channels are already very high, and thus are unlikely to have large responses to additional precipitation. Regardless, tributaries and streams across this region (including the Southern Plains) will continue to be susceptible to renewed flooding or flash flooding if additional rainfall occurs. Late spring is the peak time for flash flooding in Texas, due in part to slow-moving thunderstorms. The risk of flash flooding is increased over the Hill Country of Texas.
Though no wind hazards are posted today, one area of concern is the Southwest, in advance of a mid-level, southern stream trough. Typically during the spring, as the deserts heat up, stronger winds rounding the base of approaching mid-level troughs are mixed down to the surface resulting in very gusty winds that occasionally produce significant damage. The ECENS and GEFS PETs depict wind speeds of at least 20 mph in parts of the Southwest, which may be underdone given the inherent nature of ensemble smoothing.
A cold front moving off the Northeast coast early in week-2 favors a reduction in temperatures over the Great Lakes and Northeast. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 50’s near the Great Lakes to around 80 degrees F near the Nation’s Capital. The National Blend of Models (NBM) does not show any widespread areas of record or near-record temperatures anywhere over the CONUS during at least the first half of week-2. A general trend toward more broad ridging and a pattern typical of late-Spring is forecast to emerge over much of the CONUS later in week-2.
Troughing forecast across Alaska favors increased chances for increased onshore flow and above-normal precipitation over the southeastern part of the state, though forecasted precipitation amounts of 1-2 inches fall short of hazards thresholds. Below-normal temperatures forecast over many areas may favor a slight delay in seasonal river ice breakup. However, as temperatures continue to warm, the eventual river ice breakup may lead to ice jams and associated upstream flooding in the coming weeks.
Forecaster: Anthony Artusa
$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.
Resources
Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool
GFS Ensemble Forecasts