D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Prcp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Dec 18
Jan 19
Feb 19
Mar 19
Apr 19
May 19
Jun 19
Jul 19
Aug 19
Sep 19
Oct 19
Nov 19
Official
xx
All
23.7
33.1
31.6
18.4
20.3
32.7
19.4
11.7
14.9
21.7
34.1
34.3
24.9
ExpAuto
xx
All
27.4
35.9
33.1
19.3
25.3
33.4
 
-2.6
22.7
 
 
39.5
28.7
Auto
xx
All
27.4
35.8
33.1
18.8
24.7
34.1
15.7
11.3
17.6
25.2
31.4
27.8
25.4
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
0.9
3.7
7.5
8.6
1.5
5.2
2.2
2.0
7.5
7.7
6.3
8.1
4.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Prcp
17.9
20.9
27.8
8.1
18.9
20.4
11.6
3.2
9.7
4.8
17.8
7.9
14.7
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
2.0
0.4
10.5
7.3
3.3
7.1
1.7
-0.8
6.3
9.5
4.5
6.7
4.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Prcp
17.8
21.4
28.0
10.6
20.9
20.3
12.0
2.5
9.4
4.4
18.0
7.5
15.1
GFSM
12
Analogs
0.0
1.1
10.1
7.0
2.5
3.0
4.2
1.6
8.2
6.9
0.1
7.0
4.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Prcp
16.7
20.6
28.4
8.3
18.2
20.6
12.3
1.4
9.0
4.4
17.0
7.0
14.3
GFSM
18
Analogs
1.4
2.1
10.5
7.1
0.9
3.7
2.8
2.5
6.8
7.5
-0.5
6.4
4.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Prcp
20.6
27.7
7.0
19.3
21.2
13.8
2.0
10.1
3.5
16.1
7.6
14.4
GFSM
xx
Analogs
2.7
2.4
7.6
8.4
0.9
6.3
2.4
-0.7
5.7
8.0
5.5
8.8
4.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECMM
00
Analogs
8.2
5.2
10.5
7.6
1.7
5.3
1.2
1.4
7.9
9.3
7.2
8.1
6.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECMM
12
Analogs
9.9
2.4
7.7
8.8
3.4
6.9
1.7
2.6
7.1
9.2
6.5
10.4
6.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
00
Analogs
4.9
-0.7
7.7
2.7
4.4
4.1
1.8
1.7
8.2
6.2
3.7
8.5
4.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
0.0
-4.4
7.0
6.8
4.8
4.2
2.1
2.5
6.7
4.5
-1.1
6.1
3.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
6.4
1.0
8.8
8.0
2.9
3.6
2.6
2.9
6.0
1.8
4.9
11.2
4.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Prcp
9.3
14.4
17.9
7.8
3.2
13.8
11.4
5.8
8.4
11.2
7.1
8.5
10.0
GFS
06
Analogs
 
-2.1
10.2
4.9
1.4
0.9
1.9
2.6
7.5
3.6
4.4
9.3
3.9
NNet
9.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Prcp
16.1
18.4
8.1
5.1
11.2
10.9
7.8
11.4
12.1
7.3
8.8
10.8
GFS
12
Analogs
-0.9
-3.4
6.8
8.5
-0.4
3.1
2.6
1.8
5.5
6.8
1.1
9.8
3.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Prcp
5.9
15.8
14.2
6.1
3.5
14.4
9.7
5.8
9.4
7.9
3.0
9.3
8.8
GFS
18
Analogs
7.5
-4.1
7.5
7.1
0.3
0.7
2.4
3.6
8.9
3.2
0.4
8.4
3.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Prcp
7.8
12.7
12.2
6.2
3.8
12.9
8.2
7.6
8.1
7.5
4.1
9.3
8.5
ECM
00
Analogs
6.0
5.8
11.0
5.5
-0.1
4.5
4.7
3.6
7.2
5.1
6.6
7.1
5.5
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
10.2
3.4
10.6
5.4
1.7
3.1
1.8
3.2
9.5
8.2
8.8
2.5
5.5
NNet