D+8 Heidke Skill Scores (Temp.)
Monthly Time Series 
 
     
Monthly Average
12 Month Mean
Model
Run
Tool
Feb 18
Mar 18
Apr 18
May 18
Jun 18
Jul 18
Aug 18
Sep 18
Oct 18
Nov 18
Dec 18
Jan 19
Official
xx
All
45.7
34.2
43.7
58.0
40.9
46.1
42.3
52.7
52.0
35.9
55.1
22.0
44.3
ExpAuto
xx
All
50.5
33.5
42.3
60.1
41.0
46.2
44.2
51.3
50.7
36.2
55.7
29.7
45.1
Auto
xx
All
76.2
33.0
42.0
56.0
40.3
46.6
41.7
51.2
51.8
36.2
57.4
29.6
45.3
ManBlend
xx
Analogs
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Klein
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet
 
GFSM
00
Analogs
28.0
17.0
17.2
12.9
7.7
18.4
17.3
9.4
29.5
28.1
25.1
23.3
19.7
Klein
37.7
22.0
19.5
10.7
20.3
24.6
22.1
19.6
20.4
17.8
16.7
24.1
21.3
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
06
Analogs
34.0
17.7
19.6
8.1
5.6
21.1
19.8
7.5
29.7
32.3
29.1
23.2
20.6
Klein
39.2
22.8
19.9
9.2
19.4
26.3
23.0
20.6
21.4
19.1
16.1
26.6
21.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
12
Analogs
26.7
10.6
18.5
6.1
10.3
16.6
19.5
4.6
22.9
27.7
18.8
18.8
16.5
Klein
35.9
19.0
21.6
8.0
17.5
23.5
21.3
19.9
16.7
15.2
10.2
23.6
19.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
18
Analogs
24.1
12.7
23.1
7.7
6.9
14.0
17.3
8.5
29.6
26.6
19.2
21.4
17.5
Klein
32.7
16.0
25.9
10.2
16.9
22.8
25.3
19.8
17.4
12.1
7.9
24.9
18.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NAEFS
 
GFSM
xx
Analogs
27.7
15.1
18.6
9.8
8.3
17.7
17.8
8.5
27.8
30.6
27.3
20.5
19.2
Klein
38.7
21.6
18.6
7.5
19.9
25.4
22.4
18.7
19.9
16.5
16.7
25.4
20.9
Klein_Prob
40.2
22.4
22.3
13.9
22.6
29.9
26.9
22.3
25.9
17.9
19.8
25.4
24.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
40.9
24.7
43.1
54.0
48.2
52.2
45.9
51.1
52.6
39.4
43.9
30.9
43.8
Uncal_Temp
33.6
28.1
30.6
24.2
29.9
31.1
16.5
31.5
45.6
35.0
29.6
23.5
30.3
ECMM
00
Analogs
32.0
21.8
7.2
11.1
3.5
22.6
22.3
16.9
22.1
17.4
39.7
30.6
20.4
Klein
39.1
24.8
15.5
11.0
26.8
25.0
26.2
22.8
23.9
11.0
22.8
28.1
23.0
Klein_Prob
40.5
24.8
19.2
17.9
27.9
26.7
28.7
27.1
28.3
10.0
26.9
29.8
25.6
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
68.1
35.8
40.6
45.4
47.1
51.3
49.4
58.3
50.5
38.8
51.2
34.3
46.1
Uncal_Temp
44.1
29.5
28.0
20.7
28.8
30.9
26.0
43.9
44.7
34.9
41.2
20.5
33.0
ECMM
12
Analogs
27.9
22.4
11.5
8.9
3.5
21.0
22.6
15.1
20.2
22.5
37.1
28.1
20.0
Klein
35.4
19.7
16.8
9.1
26.5
22.3
26.8
22.6
19.9
11.0
16.2
30.9
21.3
Klein_Prob
36.8
19.4
20.2
16.9
29.6
25.4
29.4
26.4
24.9
10.4
19.6
30.9
24.1
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cal_Temp
46.6
39.7
42.4
46.5
52.6
51.1
51.9
57.9
50.2
42.1
54.0
38.3
47.7
Uncal_Temp
40.8
27.7
28.7
13.1
23.8
27.1
19.4
39.4
40.9
37.8
39.2
23.2
30.4
CANM
00
Analogs
34.9
19.8
15.6
11.9
5.7
18.1
21.5
15.9
19.1
12.9
25.4
15.7
17.8
Klein
37.4
19.3
15.2
11.5
25.0
25.2
22.9
18.7
11.3
4.8
24.7
27.1
20.1
Klein_Prob
38.6
20.3
16.9
18.6
26.6
28.8
26.8
23.3
15.4
5.4
27.2
27.1
22.7
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
CANM
12
Analogs
35.1
19.1
10.7
12.4
7.0
18.4
22.8
14.7
13.5
11.0
13.4
20.2
16.1
Klein
33.4
14.7
9.6
10.7
24.5
23.1
22.8
17.4
5.8
2.9
14.8
26.9
16.9
Klein_Prob
35.3
15.8
12.8
19.1
26.0
26.4
27.4
21.7
9.4
3.0
15.2
25.9
19.4
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NNet_Prob
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
00
Analogs
28.9
16.3
16.6
8.4
8.2
19.9
18.4
3.9
28.4
21.4
26.1
30.7
19.0
Klein
40.0
16.9
20.7
15.1
19.0
27.2
18.1
14.8
19.4
12.1
17.5
25.6
20.8
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
06
Analogs
31.1
14.4
16.3
7.2
9.0
21.4
20.1
10.4
27.5
20.8
32.7
29.4
19.9
Klein
36.3
15.8
16.9
13.7
16.9
21.8
23.4
18.4
19.8
12.4
19.9
29.8
20.2
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
12
Analogs
29.8
13.3
20.8
6.4
2.8
15.7
20.1
8.1
22.7
20.6
23.0
25.1
17.2
Klein
36.5
15.9
20.8
6.2
18.0
24.1
18.9
19.6
17.3
13.0
13.3
24.2
18.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GFS
18
Analogs
33.2
12.4
21.1
6.4
3.1
16.0
11.1
6.0
25.3
17.2
19.4
23.3
16.3
Klein
37.7
15.9
19.3
17.9
17.2
22.0
16.2
17.5
18.9
12.9
15.0
27.3
19.9
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
00
Analogs
55.4
20.4
10.5
8.3
1.0
16.9
17.1
13.2
19.9
23.8
37.6
22.9
18.4
Klein
38.7
24.4
17.0
12.2
22.5
29.4
23.5
18.4
19.3
8.3
23.8
28.3
22.0
NNet
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ECM
12
Analogs
29.3
19.9
10.1
7.5
5.0
17.8
14.4
9.9
19.1
22.2
32.4
28.1
17.8
Klein
32.7
20.6
17.1
14.2
20.7
25.9
22.5
20.5
16.9
9.2
19.7
27.0
20.7
NNet