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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made March 22, 2019 | About the Hazards Outlook

 Days 8-14Probabilistic Days 8-14
Precipitation
TemperatureNo Hazards
WindNo HazardsNo Hazards

Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Saturday March 30, 2019 to Friday April 05, 2019

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT March 22 2019

Synopsis: The main weather hazard during Week-2 is expected to be heavy precipitation from a low pressure system that develops in the lower Mississippi Valley and moves northeastward into New England by the end of the forecast period. There is also a slight risk of much below normal temperatures throughout the Plains early in the week, Mar 30-Apr 2, and heavy precipitation in northern California at the beginning of April.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Monday March 25 - Friday March 29: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Saturday March 30 - Friday April 05: The main weather event during the Week-2 forecast period is likely to be a low pressure system that develops in the Southeast early in the period and moves its way northeastward during the week. There is generally good model agreement regarding the development of the low and the broad region of heavy precipitation that goes along with it. There is a slight risk of heavy precipitation posted for the eastern CONUS during the entire forecast period. We have also posted a moderate risk hazard for heavy precipitation over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Mar 30-31. Although the exact timing and extent of the heaviest precipitation after Mar 31 is difficult to pinpoint at this time, the core of the heavy precipitation threat is expected to move northeastward out of the Mississippi Valley by Apr 1 and continue into New England by the end of the period. There is also the possibility for heavy precipitation over parts of northern California Apr 1-2 as low pressure off the West Coast slides eastward.

Colder temperatures are forecast to overspread the Plains southward to roughly the Texas/Oklahoma border, Mar 30-Apr 2. Many of these overnight temperatures could be below freezing.



Forecaster: Kyle MacRitchie

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts