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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made February 27, 2024 | About the Hazards Outlook

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Type and Period Temperature Precipitation Snow Wind Rapid Onset
Drought
Composite Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
Probabilistic Days 8-14 Map No Hazards

Composite Map
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Wednesday March 06, 2024 to Tuesday March 12, 2024

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST February 27 2024

Synopsis: Model ensembles depict an enhanced flow of Gulf of Mexico moisture moving over much of the eastern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS) at the outset of week-2, bringing the potential for heavy precipitation. A stalled frontal system prolongs the risk for heavy precipitation over the Southeast U.S.into the middle of the forecast period. A passing mid-level disturbance brings the potential for heavy snow to higher elevations in portions of the western CONUS. Models depict similar disturbances moving over the Great Plains and Great Lakes regions during week-2, bringing with them the potential for high winds.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Friday March 01 - Tuesday March 05: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Wednesday March 06 - Tuesday March 12: There are several areas of active weather depicted in today’s model solutions at the outset of week-2, however there is significant model spread particularly over the western CONUS, leading to increased uncertainty in today’s week-2 hazards outlook. The most active weather depicted in today’s solutions remains over the southeast CONUS, with ample moisture flowing into a series of fast-moving surface low pressure systems moving off the Rockies and triggering widespread enhanced precipitation with the potential for thunderstorm activity over the Southeast , particularly at the outset of week-2. The GEFS and ECMWF precipitation Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) both indicate at least a 20% chance of 3-day precipitation totals to exceed the 85th percentile and 1 inch for much of the Southeast, and Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys for March 6-10. The ECMWF is particularly bullish, with probabilities exceeding 40% over portions of the southeastern CONUS, and even exceeding 60% over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Given these high probabilities, a moderate risk for heavy precipitation is posted for March 6-7 where model agreement is greatest and where the highest precipitation totals are highlighted. Additionally, a slight risk for heavy precipitation is posted for much of the southeastern CONUS for March 6-10 as heavy precipitation is favored to persist beyond the beginning of week-2 along a stalled frontal system. A slight risk for heavy precipitation is posted for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. for March 6-8 where, in spite of large model spread, a strong signal exists in the ECMWF PET and the risk of heavy precipitation cannot be discounted. Finally, both deterministic and ensemble solutions from the GEFS and ECMWF depict tight pressure gradients forming over the Great Plains and Great Lakes regions as these low pressure systems move off the Rockies, resulting in the potential for high winds. This is also supported by the ECMWF PET for high wind, indicating a 20% probability of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and at least 20 mph over these areas from March 6th through at least the 10th, therefore a slight risk for high winds is posted over this part of the country through the middle of week-2..

The other major feature in today’s model solutions is a low pressure system moving off the North Pacific and into the Intermountain West early in week-2. This storm system is well-depicted in GEFS and ECMWF ensemble solutions, and the GEFS PET for snow water equivalent (SWE) indicates at least a 20% probability of 3-day SWE accumulation exceeding the 85th percentile and 1 inch for the Sierra Nevada and Klamath ranges, higher elevations of western Nevada, as well as most of the Rockies and higher elevations of the central Great Basin. Therefore, a slight risk for heavy snow is posted for the areas listed for March 6-8. While there are indications that this system, as well as a second system later in week-2, have the potential to bring heavy precipitation and high wind closer to the coast, there is too much uncertainty to justify posting any corresponding hazards at this time.

Forecaster: Danny Barandiaran

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts