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U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made September 28, 2022 | About the Hazards Outlook
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| Composite Map Day 8-14 |
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks |
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Valid Thursday October 06, 2022 to Wednesday October 12, 2022
US Hazards OutlookNWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT September 28 2022
Synopsis: Mid-level high pressure during the week-2 period is anticipated to promote drier-than-normal and unseasonably warm conditions for much of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS). However, flooding remains a possibility for central Florida after copious rainfall amounts to be received during the passage of Hurricane Ian in the coming days which would result in saturated grounds and potential lingering floodwaters where any additional rainfall would exacerbate conditions on the ground. Meanwhile, dynamic models favor an active pattern for the Alaska region, leading to periods of potentially hazardous wind and rain for much of the forecast period.
Hazards
- Slight risk for high winds for portions of western Coastal Alaska, Thu-Sun, Oct 6-9.
- Slight risk for heavy precipitation for portions of Interior Alaska, Thu-Tue, Oct 6-11.
- Rapid onset drought is possible for portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding is possible for portions of Florida.
For Saturday October 01 - Wednesday October 05: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards
For Thursday October 06 - Wednesday October 12: There is good agreement among dynamic models regarding the synoptic pattern in today’s 500-hPa height anomaly solutions, beginning the week-2 period with mid-level ridging over the western CONUS and weak troughing over the Great Lakes region, with this troughing diminishing by the end of the forecast period. These conditions favor drier and warmer conditions across much of the CONUS. Although both the ECMWF and GEFS reforecast tools give at a least 20% probability of maximum temperatures across much of the lower 48 exceeding the 85th percentile for much of the week-2 period, there is little chance of these temperatures reaching excessive heat thresholds, so no hazards are posted at this time.
There is multi-model depiction of periods of weak mid-level troughing off the West Coast and increased available moisture from the tropical Eastern Pacific resulting in episodic rain favored for the western CONUS during the week-2 time frame. The ECMWF reforecast tool is very bullish, with at least a 20% probability of 3-day accumulated rainfall exceeding the 85% percentile and at least one inch total for the Four Corners region. However, this anomalous wet signal is not supported by other guidance, including raw ECMWF output, thus a related hazard is not posted at this time. Farther east, heavy rainfall from the remnants of Hurricane Ian are anticipated to have moved offshore by the week-2 period. However, very large rainfall totals are anticipated from Ian, leaving saturated grounds and conditions ripe for additional flooding as a result of any additional rainfall. Therefore, the outlook highlights the potential for flooding for much of Florida.
Dry and warm conditions are favored across the central CONUS during the week-2 period. When paired with a lack of antecedent rainfall, drought conditions for the region are likely to develop or worsen, therefore the potential for rapid-onset drought for central and southern Missouri is highlighted in today’s outlook.
For the Alaska region, the week-2 period is anticipated to be characterized by stormy conditions. Early in the period mid-level high pressure over the Bering Sea and troughing over the Arctic Ocean is expected to lead to a tight pressure gradient at the surface and aloft, resulting in periods of wind and rain. The pressure gradient and surface wind is forecast to ease by the middle of the period, although model solutions favor continuing periods of enhanced precipitation for most of the rest of the forecast period, with probabilities of at least 20% for exceeding 1” of rain in a 3-day period. Given these conditions a slight risk for high winds for Oct. 6-9 is posted for portions of the western coast of Alaska and a slight risk of heavy precipitation is highlighted Oct. 9-11 for portions of Interior Alaska.
Forecaster: Danny Barandiaran
$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.
Resources
Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool
GFS Ensemble Forecasts