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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made November 21, 2019 | About the Hazards Outlook

 Days 8-14Probabilistic Days 8-14
Precipitation
Temperature
WindNo Hazards

Categorical Outlooks
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Friday November 29, 2019 to Thursday December 05, 2019

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST November 21 2019

Synopsis: We expect a progressive pattern over North America during the Week-2 period and several low pressure systems are forecast to traverse the country leading to unsettled weather from the Aleutians to the East Coast. There are slight chances of high winds and much below normal temperatures throughout southern Alaska, Plains and Great Lakes. There is also a slight chance of heavy precipitation throughout the interior Southeast and upper Midwest, where precipitation is likely to fall as snow in the comma head of a cyclone. There is a moderate risk of much below normal temperatures over much of the western third of the country next weekend with the cold air expected to spread to the East Coast by the end of Week-2.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Sunday November 24 - Thursday November 28: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Friday November 29 - Thursday December 05: The Week-2 period is expected to feature impacts from several mid-latitude cyclones. A series of storms in the Gulf of Alaska is expected to produce strong winds across the Aleutians and there is a slight risk that these winds will surpass the hazardous threshold on Nov 29-30. Much below normal temperatures are also possible across southeastern Alaska during the entire period, and a slight risk is also posted for Nov 29-Dec 4.

Anomalously cold temperatures are expected throughout much of the country during Week-2. An anomalous trough is forecast to be over the western CONUS during the first few days of the period and expand eastward throughout the week. A slight risk (20-40%) of much below normal minimum temperatures is posted from Nov 29-Dec 5 over the western CONUS and there is a moderate risk (40-60%) of much below normal temperatures within that area from Nov 29-Dec 1. Daily minimum temperatures throughout this region are expected to fall below the 15th percentile. A slight risk of much below minimum temperatures is posted over the eastern CONUS from Dec 3-5 as the cold air is forecast to shift eastward.

A strong mid-latitude cyclone is expected to develop late next week lee of the Rockies and track northeastward during the forecast period. Heavy rain is possible along the system's cold front and is likely to be concentrated in the interior southeast. There is a slight risk of heavy precipitation in this region Nov 30-Dec 5 as the ECMWF suggests another cyclone will impact the Southeast near the end of the week. Rainfall amounts could exceed 1 inch per day in this area. Heavy precipitation within the comma head of the low over the northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest is possible, and would most likely fall as snow. A slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for this area from Nov 30-Dec 1.

High pressure is expected to develop over the western CONUS in the wake of this cyclone and the pressure gradient between the two systems could lead to strong winds. A slight risk of high winds is posted for Nov 29-Dec 3 over the northern and central Plains, and the Great Lakes region. During this time, there is a 20% chance that winds will exceed their 85th percentile values with sustained winds > 25 mph.

Models predict a southwesterly flow of moisture into Arizona right around the beginning of the forecast period and there is a 20% chance that rainfall in parts of southern Arizona will exceed 1 inch on Nov 29. Localized flooding is possible under these circumstances and interested parties should keep an eye on the forecast from their local NWS office.

Forecaster: Kyle MacRitchie

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts