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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made July 12, 2024 | About the Hazards Outlook

ATTENTION:
For more information on the addition of the Rapid Onset Drought hazard type to the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Hazards Outlook (Contiguous U.S. and Alaska), please click HERE.

Type and Period Temperature Precipitation Snow Wind Rapid Onset
Drought
Composite Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo Hazards
Probabilistic Days 8-14 Map No Hazards

Composite Map
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Saturday July 20, 2024 to Friday July 26, 2024

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 12 2024

Synopsis: Models continue to trend toward a greater amplification of mid-level high pressure across the western contiguous U.S. during the week-2 period. This favors increasing chances of another prolonged stretch of excessive heat coinciding with the climatological peak in temperatures. While excessive heat chances are forecast to diminish in the East, a stalled front is likely to bring periods of heavy precipitation to parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Southerly moist flow into the Southwest results in increased chances for localized periods of heavy precipitation across the Southwest and Central and Southern Rockies. Periods of potentially high winds across the Cascades, southwestern Oregon, and central and northern California may increase the risk for wildfires in the area.

Hazards
  • High risk of excessive heat across portions of the Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and Northern High Plains, Sat-Mon, Jul 20-22.
  • Moderate risk of excessive heat across portions of the interior Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, California, Desert Southwest, Rockies, and Northern and Central High Plains, Sat-Wed, Jul 20-24.
  • Slight risk of excessive heat across much of the western CONUS and High Plains, Sat-Fri, Jul 20-26.
  • Moderate risk of heavy precipitation across southeastern Virginia and the Carolinas, Sat-Sun, Jul 20-21.
  • Slight risk of heavy precipitation across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic, southern Appalachians, Southeast, and Tennessee Valley, Sat-Tue, Jul 20-23.
  • Slight risk of periods of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southwest and Central and Southern Rockies, Sat-Fri, Jul 20-26.
  • Slight risk of episodic high winds for portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Sat-Mon, Jul 20-22.
  • Rapid Onset Drought risk for portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and Northern Plains.
Detailed Summary

For Monday July 15 - Friday July 19: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Saturday July 20 - Friday July 26: At the outset of the period, an amplified mid-level ridge is forecast to be centered across the Four Corners with recent deterministic GFS and ECMWF runs indicating a 597-600 dm height maxima. This favors anomalously warm temperatures along with excessive heat conditions across much of the West. For northern areas, probabilities for maximum temperatures exceeding the 85th climatological percentile range from 40-60 percent in the GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) and 30-50 percent in the ECENS PET, with diminishing probabilities further south across California and the Southwest. However, the synoptic pattern, combined with the climatological hottest time of year is concerning. Uncalibrated temperatures in the 0z GEFS and ECENS are close to or exceed 100 deg F across northern portions of the Intermountain Region and High Plains. Additionally, the calibrated ECENS/GEFS skill weighted heat risk tool depicts 60 percent or greater probabilities for heat to exceed the 95th climatological percentile during week-2. Therefore, a high risk for excessive heat is posted across portions of the Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and Northern High Plains, Jul 20-22. A moderate risk for excessive heat continues through Jul 24 and extends further south into California and into parts of the Desert Southwest in the updated outlook. The 0z GEFS and ECENS depict temperatures exceeding 105 deg F across portions of the California Central Valley and 110 deg F in the Desert Southwest, and the National Blend of Models indicates the potential for daily record high temperatures over some areas. The slight risk for excessive heat covers much of the western CONUS and Northern and Central High Plains, and is valid for all of week-2.

Possible surface low formation with adjacent surface high pressure over the Northern Pacific may support tight pressure gradients across the Pacific Northwest and California, thus a slight risk of episodic high winds is maintained for the Cascades and is expanded into southern California, Jul 20-22, based on the ECENS PET. Hot, dry, and windy conditions are likely to lead to enhanced risk of wildfires across West Coast states and inhibit efforts to contain any active wildfires.

The initial position of the ridge axis near the Four Corners favors a more active monsoon during week-2. Therefore, a slight risk for periods of heavy precipitation is posted across portions of the Southwest and Central and Southern Rockies for all of week-2. The GEFS PET depicts at least a 20 percent chance 3-day precipitation totals exceed the 85th climatological percentile and 0.5 inches over parts of the highlighted area, with the ECENS PET increasing the signal compared to yesterday. The uncalibrated GEFS and ECENS guidance indicate areas of sporadic convection throughout the period which could result in localized areas of flooding, although there is too much uncertainty regarding the exact placement to designate a flood risk.

Late in week-1, a mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with an associated front progressing southeastward through the eastern CONUS. While this feature is likely to result in a moderation of temperatures and some much-needed precipitation, there are growing indications that the front will stall across the southern Mid-Atlantic early in week-2 and become a focus area for multiple rounds of heavy precipitation. The GEFS and ECENS PETs depict at least a 20 percent chance of 3-day precipitation totals exceeding the 85th climatological percentile and 1-inch across the Carolinas and adjacent areas through the middle of week-2. The uncalibrated guidance from the 0z ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE all depict some areas with upwards of 2 inches of precipitation during week-2, with most occurring in the early in the period. A moderate risk of heavy precipitation remains highlighted across southeastern Virginia and the Carolinas for Jul 20-21, with a slight risk continuing to Jul 23 and extending farther into parts of the Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and southern Appalachians.

The persistent warmer and drier than normal conditions over at least the past month have led to a risk for Rapid Onset Drought for parts of the Northern Plains, Ohio Valley (eastern Corn Belt), Tennessee Valley, and Lower Mississippi Valley. The risk area has been pulled out of the Southeast due to increasing chances for precipitation related to the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary. The recent heat waves across the eastern U.S. have exacerbated the ongoing dryness across this area, and has led to Moderate Drought (D1) for many areas in the East. Many of the areas highlighted for risk of Rapid Onset Drought have seen large precipitation deficits over the past two weeks to a month and have seen large reductions in available soil moisture. Periodic, localized heavy precipitation cannot be ruled out due to frontal and/or daytime thunderstorm activity, but this is unlikely to result in any meaningful change in the potential for continued development of drought conditions. Dry soils, stressed vegetation, and reduced water availability due to low ponds and streams may lead to increased impacts to agriculture and livestock, with several locations already experiencing impacts.

Forecaster: Thomas Collow

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts