ATTENTION: For more information on the addition of the Rapid Onset Drought hazard type to the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Hazards Outlook (Contiguous U.S. and Alaska), please click HERE.
Composite Map
Day 8-14
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks
Valid Wednesday February 26, 2025 to Tuesday March 04, 2025
US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM
EST February 18 2025
Synopsis: Surface high pressure over the
Great Basin and low pressure over the Colorado River delta create conditions
favorable for Santa Ana winds over southern California at the outset of week-2.
Multiple model ensembles depict developing low pressure over the Great Plains,
increasing chances for high winds to portions of the northern contiguous U.S.
(CONUS).
Hazards
Slight risk of high winds for portions
of coastal Southern California, Wed-Thu, Feb 26-27.
Slight risk of episodic high winds for portions of the Northern and Central
Plains, Wed-Tue, Feb 26-Mar 4.
For Wednesday February 26 -
Tuesday March 04: Model ensemble solutions of 500-hPa geopotential heights
from the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE generally agree on a gradual transition towards
zonal flow over the CONUS during the week-2 period, with weak positive height
anomalies over the West Coast and broad but weak troughing over the East. This
is favored to bring milder temperatures to much of the CONUS and a relatively
quiet week-2 forecast period from a hazards perspective.
At the outset of week-2 multiple model ensembles depict a strong surface
high pressure over the Great Basin and an inverted trough along the coast of
southern California, a setup favorable for Santa Ana winds. This feature is
short-lived but well-defined in ensemble means, translating to the GEFS and
ECMWF member solutions showing an uptick in maximum wind speeds early in
week-2. Therefore a slight risk (20 to 40 % chance) of high winds is posted for
coastal portions of southern California for Feb 26-27.
Model solutions feature tight pressure gradients along the eastern front of
the Rockies, where they indicate the potential for lee cyclogenesis over the
Great Plains during the week-2 period. The GEFS and ECMWF PETs are less bullish
than yesterday but both continue to indicate at least a 20% probability of
maximum wind speed exceeding the 85th percentile over portions of the Great
Plains throughout week-2. A slight risk of episodic high wind is posted for
portions of the Northern and Central Plains for Feb 26-Mar 4, where model
agreement is best. The PETs also indicate the potential for impactful
precipitation and/or wind to affect the Lower Mississippi Valley late in
week-2, however uncertainty is very high so no associated hazards are posted at
this time.
Deep low pressure over the North Pacific discussed above is expected to
lead to moist onshore flow for southeastern Alaska. The PETs indicate a modest
potential for 3-day precipitation totals to exceed the 85th percentile.
However, accumulation totals are not expected to exceed hazardous criteria so
no associated hazard is posted at this time. here is, however, an increased
potential for landslides in the region given copious antecedent rainfall and
warmer than average temperatures resulting in higher than normal snow levels.
The ECMWF and GEFS PETs for minimum temperature both indicate a weak signal
for much below normal temperatures for portions of the Northeast U.S. for Feb
27-28. Temperatures are not expected to dip below advisory criteria so no
associated hazard is posted at this time.
Forecaster: Danny
Barandiaran
$$
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.