Home Site Map News Organization
www.nws.noaa.gov

Files are updated with the forecast


Download Day 8-14 KML
Temperature
Precipitation
Snow
Wind
Rapid Onset Drought
Probabilistic Temperature
Probabilistic Excessive Heat
Probabilistic Precipitation
Probabilistic Snow
Probabilistic Wind

Download Day 8-14 Shapefiles
Temperature
Precipitation
Snow
Wind
Rapid Onset Drought
Probabilistic Temperature
Probabilistic Excessive Heat
Probabilistic Precipitation
Probabilistic Snow
Probabilistic Wind

Hazards Forecast Archives

Model Guidance Tools
Probabilistic Extremes Tool

About Us
   Our Mission
   Who We Are

Contact Us
   CPC Information
   CPC Web Team


HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made February 18, 2025 | About the Hazards Outlook

ATTENTION:
For more information on the addition of the Rapid Onset Drought hazard type to the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Hazards Outlook (Contiguous U.S. and Alaska), please click HERE.

Type and Period Temperature Precipitation Snow Wind Rapid Onset
Drought
Composite Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo HazardsNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
Probabilistic Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards

Composite Map
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Wednesday February 26, 2025 to Tuesday March 04, 2025

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST February 18 2025

Synopsis: Surface high pressure over the Great Basin and low pressure over the Colorado River delta create conditions favorable for Santa Ana winds over southern California at the outset of week-2. Multiple model ensembles depict developing low pressure over the Great Plains, increasing chances for high winds to portions of the northern contiguous U.S. (CONUS).

Hazards
  • Slight risk of high winds for portions of coastal Southern California, Wed-Thu, Feb 26-27.
  • Slight risk of episodic high winds for portions of the Northern and Central Plains, Wed-Tue, Feb 26-Mar 4.
Detailed Summary

For Friday February 21 - Tuesday February 25: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Wednesday February 26 - Tuesday March 04: Model ensemble solutions of 500-hPa geopotential heights from the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE generally agree on a gradual transition towards zonal flow over the CONUS during the week-2 period, with weak positive height anomalies over the West Coast and broad but weak troughing over the East. This is favored to bring milder temperatures to much of the CONUS and a relatively quiet week-2 forecast period from a hazards perspective.

At the outset of week-2 multiple model ensembles depict a strong surface high pressure over the Great Basin and an inverted trough along the coast of southern California, a setup favorable for Santa Ana winds. This feature is short-lived but well-defined in ensemble means, translating to the GEFS and ECMWF member solutions showing an uptick in maximum wind speeds early in week-2. Therefore a slight risk (20 to 40 % chance) of high winds is posted for coastal portions of southern California for Feb 26-27.

Model solutions feature tight pressure gradients along the eastern front of the Rockies, where they indicate the potential for lee cyclogenesis over the Great Plains during the week-2 period. The GEFS and ECMWF PETs are less bullish than yesterday but both continue to indicate at least a 20% probability of maximum wind speed exceeding the 85th percentile over portions of the Great Plains throughout week-2. A slight risk of episodic high wind is posted for portions of the Northern and Central Plains for Feb 26-Mar 4, where model agreement is best. The PETs also indicate the potential for impactful precipitation and/or wind to affect the Lower Mississippi Valley late in week-2, however uncertainty is very high so no associated hazards are posted at this time.

Deep low pressure over the North Pacific discussed above is expected to lead to moist onshore flow for southeastern Alaska. The PETs indicate a modest potential for 3-day precipitation totals to exceed the 85th percentile. However, accumulation totals are not expected to exceed hazardous criteria so no associated hazard is posted at this time. here is, however, an increased potential for landslides in the region given copious antecedent rainfall and warmer than average temperatures resulting in higher than normal snow levels.

The ECMWF and GEFS PETs for minimum temperature both indicate a weak signal for much below normal temperatures for portions of the Northeast U.S. for Feb 27-28. Temperatures are not expected to dip below advisory criteria so no associated hazard is posted at this time.

Forecaster: Danny Barandiaran

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts