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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made May 22, 2024 | About the Hazards Outlook

ATTENTION:
For more information on the addition of the experimental Rapid Onset Drought hazard type to the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Hazards Outlook (Contiguous U.S. and Alaska), please click HERE.

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Type and Period Temperature Precipitation Snow Wind Rapid Onset
Drought
Composite Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
Probabilistic Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo Hazards

Composite Map
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Thursday May 30, 2024 to Wednesday June 05, 2024

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT May 22 2024

Synopsis: A cold front is forecast to progress southward across the central and eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) next week which is likely to bring heat relief initially to Texas and then Florida. From May 30 to June 1, southeasterly flow and a warm front shifting northward is expected to promote thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall across the south-central Great Plains. Beyond June 1, a more zonal flow pattern is forecast throughout the CONUS which decreases forecast confidence with no hazards posted later in week-2. A deep mid-level low favors above-normal precipitation across Alaska.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Saturday May 25 - Wednesday May 29: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Thursday May 30 - Wednesday June 05: Model guidance remains consistent and in good agreement that a relatively strong cold front for late May shifts south of the Rio Grande Valley and into the Gulf of Mexico prior to the start of week-2, May 30th. This cold front is likely to end the early season heat wave across the south-central CONUS. Any moderation in temperatures across the Florida Peninsula is expected to be slower and the uncalibrated GEFS ensemble mean on May 30 depicts maximum temperatures of near 95 degrees F for south Florida. The National Blend of Models is showing near or record highs for Miami on that day as well. Therefore, a moderate risk of excessive heat is maintained through May 30th. Based on the GEFS Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) and its forecast of maximum temperatures exceeding the 85th percentile, a slight risk of excessive heat is posted for the southern half of the Florida Peninsula through June 1. Beyond that time, slightly cooler temperatures are expected due to lower 500-hPa heights and an expected increase in sea breeze convection. Although above-normal temperatures are forecast for the interior West throughout week-2, excessive heat is not anticipated at this time with the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means generally show maximum temperatures ranging from the 80s (Great Basin) to 100-105 degrees F (desert Southwest). Later in week-2, there are signs that the mid-level ridge strengthens again over the south-central CONUS. If ensemble means remain consistent, then an excessive heat hazard may be warranted for this region in subsequent outlooks.

The cold front, which brings heat relief, is expected to retreat back to the north and may become a stationary front centered over the southern or central Great Plains. This stationary front along with southeasterly surface low favors the initiation of thunderstorms across the High Plains. Given the time of year and northwest flow aloft, these thunderstorms could evolve into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) spreading eastward through Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas. The uncalibrated ECMWF ensemble mean remains consistent with probabilities of 20 to 50 percent for more than 1 inch in the designated area for a slight risk of heavy precipitation. Based on 24-hour precipitation amounts from the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means, the valid period is from May 30 to June 1. Given the time of year and wet antecedent conditions for parts of the region, there is a flash flooding risk with any locally heavy rainfall.

Although the predicted longwave pattern would not support any widespread high wind events for the Southwest and southern High Plains, these areas will be closely monitored for a high wind potential as wildfire danger is expected to remain elevated heading into week-2.

The greatest risk for rapid onset drought (ROD) during the remainder of May into early June exists for southern parts of Florida and Texas. The ROD hazards are based on 30 to 60-day precipitation deficits, low soil moisture, and continued dryness and above-normal temperatures into the beginning of June. These ROD areas will be reassessed on Thursday, May 23.

Multi-model ensemble means are in excellent agreement that a deep 500-hPa closed low develops over the Aleutians and southwestern Alaska by the beginning of June. This anomalous mid-level trough is likely to enhance onshore flow to southern Alaska where above-normal precipitation is favored. Since the GEFS and ECMWF PETs depict probabilities of less than 20 percent for 3-day precipitation amounts to exceed 2 inches, a heavy precipitation hazard is not posted.

Forecaster: Brad Pugh

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts