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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made June 12, 2024 | About the Hazards Outlook

ATTENTION:
For more information on the addition of the Rapid Onset Drought hazard type to the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 Day Hazards Outlook (Contiguous U.S. and Alaska), please click HERE.

Type and Period Temperature Precipitation Snow Wind Rapid Onset
Drought
Composite Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
Probabilistic Days 8-14 Map No Hazards

Composite Map
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Thursday June 20, 2024 to Wednesday June 26, 2024

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT June 12 2024

Synopsis: A heat wave is forecast to be ongoing across portions of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast as well as much of the Interior West at the outset of week-2 associated with broad mid-level high pressure over the central and eastern contiguous U.S.(CONUS). By the middle of the period, this feature is forecast to broaden further, spreading excessive heat chances into the California Central Valley. Enhanced southerly flow and an influx of tropical moisture favor elevated chances of heavy precipitation and potential flooding near the Gulf of Mexico coast, although there is uncertainty regarding timing and coverage of the heaviest precipitation.

Hazards
  • Moderate risk of excessive heat across portions of the Midwest, Thu-Mon, Jun 20-24.
  • Moderate risk of excessive heat across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, Thu-Fri, Jun 20-21.
  • Slight risk of excessive heat across portions of the central and eastern CONUS, Thu-Wed, Jun 20-26.
  • Slight risk of excessive heat across portions of the Interior West, Thu-Wed, Jun 20-26.
  • Slight risk of excessive heat across the southern Central Valley of California, Sat-Wed, Jun 22-26.
  • Moderate risk of heavy precipitation along the western Gulf of Mexico coast, Thu-Sun, Jun 20-23.
  • Slight risk of heavy precipitation near the western and central Gulf of Mexico Coast, Thu-Wed, Jun 20-26.
  • Slight risk of heavy precipitation near the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico Coast, Thu-Mon, Jun 20-24.
  • Slight risk of heavy precipitation across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, Thu-Mon, Jun 20-24.
  • Slight risk of high winds across portions of the Rockies, and the Central and Southern Plains, Thu-Mon, Jun 20-24.
  • Flooding possible across portions of the Gulf of Mexico coast.
Detailed Summary

For Saturday June 15 - Wednesday June 19: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Thursday June 20 - Wednesday June 26: Today’s ensemble solutions from the GEFS and ECMWF are showing good continuity with yesterday particularly with regard to the mid-level ridge centered over the eastern CONUS at the outset of week-2. The ECMWF is especially bullish, with a 594dm maximum on day 8 over the Tennessee Valley, setting the stage for continued chances for excessive heat to affect much of the CONUS during the forecast period. Guidance from the GEFS and ECMWF Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) continue to depict at least a 40% probability of daily maximum temperatures exceeding the 85th percentile for portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest during Jun 20-21. By day-10 the ridge flattens slightly, dropping heights over the East Coast, subsequently also lowering probabilities of excessive heat; however the 40% threshold continues to be met over the Midwest through the 24th. Therefore, a moderate risk for excessive heat is posted for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Jun 20-21, and for portions of the Midwest for Jun 20-24. Both the GEFS and ECWMF PETS both also indicate at least a 20% probability of daily maximum temperatures exceeding the 85th percentile for a broader area of the central and eastern CONUS for the whole week-2 period, encompassing much of the Tennessee Valley and Michigan, as well as greater coverage for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast relative to the moderate risk described above. Much of the Interior West is also influenced by this broad ridge, which is also indicated by the PETs. At the outset of week-2 a weak trough over the West Coast reduces the chances for excessive heat over California, but by day-10 the combination of a weakening trough in the West and a broadening ridge over the East result in in an enhancement of chances for excessive heat for the southern Central Valley of California. Therefore, a slight risk for excessive heat is posted for all of week-2 for much of the Interior West, and for Jun 22-26 for the southern Central Valley.

In addition to the widespread potential for excessive heat for large portions of the CONUS, ensemble solutions continue to depict an increase in tropical moisture and convective activity over the southern Gulf of Mexico late in week-1 and continuing into week-2. Today’s solutions confine the heaviest precipitation further west relative to yesterday, but continue to favor potentially heavy precipitation for much of the Gulf Coast. The GEFS and ECMWF PETs depict at least a 20% probability of 3-day precipitation totals to exceed the 85th percentile and at least one inch for much of the Gulf Coast throughout week-2, with higher probabilities and the potential for exceeding 2 inches early in the forecast period. Therefore a moderate risk for heavy precipitation is posted for portions of the western and central Gulf Coast for Jun 20-23, and a slight risk for heavy precipitation extending further inland for the whole week-2 period. Model solutions depict widespread precipitation covering much of the Gulf Coast at the outset of the forecast period, then confining the heaviest precipitation west of the Mississippi Delta after the 24th. Therefore, a slight risk for heavy precipitation is posted for portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast for Jun 20-24. Finally, abundant antecedent rainfall over much of eastern Texas has resulted in most of the area reservoirs at or near capacity. Given the potential for heavy rainfall during week-2, a risk for possible flooding is also highlighted for portions of eastern Texas and southwest Louisiana.

The weak trough over the West Coast mentioned earlier is also favored to introduce some instability downstream over the Northern Tier, which paired with passing shortwave disturbances provide the potential for periods of heavy precipitation for portions of the Upper Midwest throughout week-2 and particularly through the middle of the period. This is well-indicated by the ECMWF (and to a lesser extent the GEFS) PETs, which depict at least a 20% probability of 3-day precipitation to exceed the 85th percentile and 1 inch for Jun 20-24, therefore a slight risk for heavy precipitation is posted for portions of the Upper Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley for dates indicated above. The synoptic pattern also favors enhanced winds along the eastern Rockies and western Great Plains. The ECMWF and GEFS both indicate high probabilities (>60%) of wind speeds to reach at least 10kt, and the ECMWF wind-gust forecast depicts similar probabilities for gusts getting as high as 34kt, also for the early and middle portions of the forecast period. Therefore a slight risk for high winds is posted for portions of the eastern Rockies and western Plains for Jun 20-24.

Forecaster: Danny Barandiaran

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts