Composite Map Day 8-14

Probabilistic Outlooks Temperature Hazards Precipitation Hazards Wind Hazards Snow Hazards

Valid Saturday February 21, 2026 to Friday February 27, 2026

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST February 13 2026

Synopsis: During week-2, mid-level high pressure is forecast across the Bering Sea, with mid-level low pressure across eastern Alaska extending into western Canada and the northwestern contiguous U.S. (CONUS). These features persist throughout the period and are supportive of an extended period of heavy precipitation, coastal high winds, and high elevation snowfall across the Pacific Northwest, along with colder temperatures over much of Alaska. For the remainder of the CONUS east of the Rockies, individual disturbances may bring episodes of heavy precipitation over parts of the East or wintry weather along the Northern Tier, although exact timing and placement is uncertain.

Hazards

• Moderate risk of heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and far northern California, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.
• Slight risk of heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and northern California, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.
• Moderate risk of heavy snow across the Cascades and Klamath Mountains, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.
• Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Cascades, Klamath Mountains, and Sierra Nevada Mountains, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.
• Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Interior West, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.
• Moderate risk of high winds across coastal portions of Washington, Oregon, and northwestern California, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.
• Slight risk of high winds along much of the West Coast, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.
• Moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures across southern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.
• Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures across much of southern Alaska, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.
• Slight risk of high winds across the eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and along the southern Mainland Coast to Southeast Alaska, Sat-Fri, Feb 21-27.

Detailed Summary

For Monday February 16 - Friday February 20: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Saturday February 21 - Friday February 27: The GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensembles are in good agreement regarding a mid-level trough persisting across western North America during week-2 in conjunction with a negative phase of the Pacific North American (-PNA) pattern. With the negative height anomaly center predicted to shift northward to Southeast Alaska, the greatest onshore flow is favored to be directed into the Pacific Northwest. This may be further enhanced as positive 500-hPa height anomalies build over the eastern Pacific during the second half of the period resulting in a stronger mid-level pressure gradient. The ECMWF Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) continues to depict probabilities of 20-30 percent for 3-day precipitation totals exceeding the 85th climatological percentile and 1.5-inches, with the GEFS PET increasing these chances to 30-40 percent early in the period. While integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) values are generally lower early in the period, there is a gradual uptick toward 250 kg/m/s later in week-2. Signals are pointing to an extended period of enhanced precipitation, with the GEFS, ECMWF, and Canadian ensemble means depicting upwards of 4-inches over some areas of the Pacific Northwest for week-2 as a whole. While some of the tools are more marginal, particularly early in the period, the persistent pattern and long duration of heavy precipitation leaned toward introducing a moderate risk of heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and far northern California for all of week-2. A corresponding moderate risk for high winds is added across portions of coastal Washington, Oregon, and northwestern California where the GEFS and ECMWF PETs depict an enhanced signal for wind speeds of 25-40 mph. At the higher elevations of the Cascades and Klamath, the uncalibrated ECWMF depicts probabilities of at least 40 percent for 3-day snowfall totals greater than 12-inches. While the uncalibrated GEFS is drier compared to the ECMWF, its corresponding snow water equivalent (SWE) PET depicts some of these areas having at least a 40 percent chance of 3-day SWE greater than 1-inch supporting a moderate risk for heavy snow. As temperatures trend colder during late February, there could be an increasing chance of winter weather hazards such as freezing rain and/or snow across the lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest. Forecast confidence is too low to specify any related snow hazards at time, but this will continue to be monitored.

A slight risk of heavy precipitation extends further south into California to just north of San Francisco. While no areas of flooding are noted in today's outlook, any areas that do receive heavy precipitation will have an elevated risk of localized urban and small stream flash flooding, especially given the persistence of the wet pattern. Slight risks of high winds and heavy snow extend through the central California coast and the Sierra Nevadas respectively. A slight risk of heavy snow is also highlighted further inland across portions of the Northern and Central Rockies where 3-day snowfall totals greater than 6-inches are possible based on the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. The much snowier latter half of February will be welcomed across the West as snow water equivalent (SWE) is currently below 50 percent of average for much of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California.

Periodic shortwave disturbances may continue to eject out of the Rockies bringing intermittent periods of active weather into parts of the central and eastern CONUS. Gusty winds and fire weather related hazards cannot be ruled out across the eastern Rockies and Great Plains. There are some elevated signals for heavy precipitation in the GEFS and ECMWF PETs across portions of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys toward the middle of the period tied to frontal activity. Wintry weather also remains possible across the Northern Tier, but signals are weaker in the guidance compared to yesterday and the GEFS SWE PET no longer depicts significant probabilities SWE exceeds the 85th climatological percentile. Given decreasing confidence, and uncertainty related to timing and exact track of individual shortwave features, no hazards are posted east of the Rockies in today's outlook.

Due to the amplified ridge over the Bering Sea and anomalous northerly flow, below-normal temperatures are likely throughout Alaska. The moderate risk of much below normal temperatures is extended throughout southern Mainland Alaska for all of week-2 where temperatures at least 20 deg F below-normal are possible based on the uncalibrated ECMWF and GEFS ensembles. For Southeast Alaska, the GEFS PETs depict greater than a 50 percent chance of minimum temperatures falling below the 10th climatological percentile during the first half of the period. Probabilities in the ECMWF PET are slightly lower across Southeast Alaska, but begin to increase above 40 percent later in week-2 across the southwestern Mainland. A slight risk for much below normal temperatures extends slightly farther north across the Alaska Mainland, and into the Alaska Peninsula. A tightening pressure gradient tied to surface high pressure over the Bering Sea and low pressure near southeastern Alaska supports a slight risk of high winds across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, extending to Southeast Alaska for the entire period. High winds combined with cold temperatures may result in dangerous wind chill values over some areas further supporting the moderate risk. Interior areas of the Mainland may experience wind chill values of less than -20 deg F (-40 deg F locally).

Forecaster: Thomas Collow

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts