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Composite Map
Day 8-14
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks
Valid Friday July 25, 2025 to Thursday July 31, 2025
US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM
EDT July 17 2025
Synopsis: Amplified mid-level high pressure is
predicted across much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) excluding the West Coast
during week-2. This translates to increased chances for extreme heat for areas
east of the Rockies and the Desert Southwest. Many of these areas could
experience heat index values exceeding triple digits (deg F). Possible surface
low formation over the Gulf of America increases the likelihood for heavy
precipitation and resultant possible flooding across the central Gulf Coast at
the beginning of the period. A surface low and trailing front may bring
localized heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to portions of the Upper Mississippi
Valley, western Great Lakes, and Northern Plains at the beginning of the
period. Dry soils and anticipated dry, hot conditions support a risk of Rapid
Onset Drought (ROD) over Kansas.
Hazards
High risk of
extreme heat for portions of the Middle and Lower Mississippi, Ohio, and
Tennessee Valleys, Fri-Sat, Jul 25-26.
Moderate risk of extreme heat for portions of the Great Plains,
Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic, Fri-Thu, Jul 25-31.
Slight risk of extreme heat for many parts of the CONUS east of the
Rockies, Fri-Thu, Jul 25-31.
Slight risk of extreme heat for the Desert Southwest, Fri-Thu, Jul 25-31.
Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the Central Gulf Coast, Fri-Sun, Jul
25-27.
Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the Northern Plains, Upper
Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes, Fri-Sun, Jul 25-27.
For Friday July 25 - Thursday
July 31: The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE ensemble means continue to indicate
amplified mid-level ridging across much of the CONUS excluding the West Coast
from the end of week-1 throughout week-2. The focus of the positive 500-hPa
height departures are predicted to shift from the eastern half of the CONUS to
the Midwest by the middle of week-2. This pattern enhances the risk of extreme
heat for areas east of the Rockies and the Desert Southwest. A high risk of
extreme heat (>60% chance) is designated for portions of the Middle and Lower
Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Jul 25-26. A broad area is
highlighted with a moderate risk (40-60% chance) of extreme heat for much of
the Great Plains, Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic
throughout week-2, with the anticipation of the focus of the heat to shift from
the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys westward to the northern and central
Plains by the middle of the period as the center of the mid-level ridge shifts
westward. The slight risk of extreme heat covers many areas east of the Rockies
with the expansion to western portions of Pennsylvania and New York. With high
dewpoints expected, heat index values are expected to exceed the 90th
percentile compared to climatology and triple digits deg F. The National Blend
of Models (NBM) show near record daytime temperatures over the Tennessee Valley
and near record nighttime temperatures across many areas across the East.
Surface low formation is possible over the Gulf of America at the beginning
of week-2 that could support areas of heavy precipitation along the Gulf Coast.
A slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for the central Gulf Coast, Jul
25-27. The Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) indicate at least a 20% chance
of 3-day rainfall exceeding the 85th percentile and one inch, although with
somewhat decreased spatial coverage compared to yesterday. Anticipated
saturated soils combined with enhanced rainfall during week-2 support increased
risk for possible flooding.
Further north, a surface low and trailing front may bring localized heavy
rainfall and thunderstorms to portions of the north-central CONUS. The slight
risk has expanded slightly westward to include the Northern Plains, Upper
Mississippi Valley, and western Great Lakes at the beginning of the period, Jul
25-27.
Anomalous dry soils and expected hot, dry conditions supports a risk of
Rapid Onset Drought (ROD) for parts of Kansas.
Forecaster: Melissa
Ou
$$
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.
www.nws.noaa.gov
