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HOME> Expert Assessments>Hazards Outlook

For 3-7 day hazards see Weather Prediction Center's: WPC 3-7 Day Hazards

U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook - Made March 28, 2024 | About the Hazards Outlook

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Type and Period Temperature Precipitation Snow Wind Rapid Onset
Drought
Composite Days 8-14 Map No HazardsNo HazardsNo HazardsNo HazardsNo Hazards
Probabilistic Days 8-14 Map No Hazards

Composite Map
Experimental Probabilistic Outlooks

Valid Friday April 05, 2024 to Thursday April 11, 2024

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT March 28 2024

Synopsis: An area of departing surface low pressure across the northeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) may bring periods of high winds to portions of the Northeast at the start of the week-2 period. Meanwhile, a digging trough and associated lee-side cyclogenesis will bring multiple chances for heavy snow to parts of the northern and central Plains and Rocky Mountains. More broadly, periods of high winds may occur in conjunction with the robust trough and a series of surface lows across the West. In the Southeast, return flow off the Gulf of Mexico and frontal systems extending from multiple areas of low-pressure across the Plains brings chances for heavy precipitation to portions of the southeastern CONUS by the middle and end of the period.

Hazards Detailed Summary

For Sunday March 31 - Thursday April 04: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Friday April 05 - Thursday April 11: Mid-level troughing and associated surface low-pressure will be progressing east off of the Northeast at the end of week-1. Models are in fair agreement with this system bringing chances for high winds to portions of the Northeast at the very beginning of week-2. The GEFS and ECENS have many members forecasting the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) to fall towards 990mb. Therefore, a slight risk of high winds is posted for Apr 5. However, much of this system is forecast to be east of the US by the start of week-2 and the associated snow hazard forecast yesterday has been discontinued.

Across the interior West, an area of negative mid-level height anomalies is forecast to develop and persist for much of the week-2 period. This is likely to bring generally unsettled weather to much of the western and central contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during the period. As the trough digs into the West early in the period, the ECENS Probabilistic Extremes Tool (PET) shows at least a 20% chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 20 mph (25 mph, locally) across the highlighted risk area. The GEFS PET indicates these thresholds for the Southwest into the Central Plains. Lee-side cyclogenesis is also likely to support increased chances for high winds further into the Central and Northern Plains during much of the period. Finally, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) indicates low to moderate fire potential across parts of the eastern Four Corners region and Central and Southern Plains by the end of week-1. Little to no precipitation anticipated during week-1 combined with increased high wind risk during week-2 may support enhanced wildfire risk in these regions. Therefore, a slight risk of episodic high winds is posted for the Great Plains, Interior West, and Southwest, Apr 5-9. By the end of the period the mid-level trough is likely to be moving east and weakly above-normal 500-hPa heights are forecast reducing the chances for high winds across the region.

The digging mid-level trough and cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies increases chances for heavy snow across portions of the Plains and Rockies. The GEFS Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) PET indicates chances for SWE to exceed the 85th climatological percentile across portions of the Plains. Meanwhile, the ECENS PET indicates precipitation to exceed the 85th percentile across a broad area in the north-central CONUS. Correspondingly, the raw ECENS indicates 30-40% chances for snow to exceed four inches across this region during the early to middle of the period. Therefore, a slight risk of heavy snow is posted for the Central Rockies and Northern and Central Plains for April 5-9.

Return flow off the Gulf of Mexico may develop by the middle through the end of week-2. The associated frontal systems from the lee cyclogenesis discussed above may help to initiate chances for heavy precipitation in parts of the southeastern CONUS. The ECENS and GEFS PETs develop over 20% chances for 3 day precipitation amounts to exceed the 85th percentile and 1 inch across a wide area in the southeastern CONUS. There is also broad support from the raw tools as well for this region with 3 day precipitation amounts from the raw ECENS indicating greater than a 40% chance of exceeding 1 inch. Therefore, a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for this region for Apr 7-11.

For Alaska, the mean mid-level pattern is forecast to be fairly zonal, with potentially positive 500 hPa height departures across the southern half of the state. There is multi-model depiction of a series of surface lows forming over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska, although these are not expected to lead to widespread hazardous conditions.

Forecaster: Ryan Bolt

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts