Composite Map Day 8-14

Probabilistic Outlooks Temperature Hazards Precipitation Hazards Wind Hazards Snow Hazards

Valid Tuesday February 24, 2026 to Monday March 02, 2026

US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST February 16 2026

Synopsis: A stable pattern is forecast with a strong area of mid-level high (low) pressure over the Bering Sea (Alaska, western Canada, and northwest contiguous U.S. (CONUS)) for week-2. The strong area of mid-level low pressure favors an increased risk of heavy precipitation, heavy snow, and high winds across the Pacific Northwest and parts of California. Gusty conditions are anticipated to extend into the Interior West associated with the greatest potential in the lee of the Rockies. For the remainder of the CONUS east of the Rockies, individual disturbances may bring episodes of heavy precipitation over parts of the East or wintry weather along the Northern Tier, although exact timing and placement is uncertain. Across Alaska, there is increased potential for much below normal temperatures across southern Alaska, although models have decreased signals for this hazard compared to yesterday. Regardless, gusty conditions along the southern coast of Alaska would further decrease wind chill temperatures. Gap winds are possible locally for some areas of Southeast Alaska.


Hazards

• Moderate risk of heavy precipitation across parts of northern California and southern Oregon, Tue-Wed, Feb 24-25.
• Moderate risk of heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest,Tue-Mon, Feb 24-Mar 2.
• Slight risk of heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and northern to central California, Tue-Mon, Feb 24-Mar 2.
• Moderate risk of heavy snow across the Klamath and northern Sierra Nevada Mountains, Tue-Wed, Feb 24-25.
• Moderate risk of heavy snow across the Cascades, Tue-Mon, Feb 24-Mar 2.
• Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Cascades, Klamath Mountains, and Sierra Nevada Mountains, Tue-Mon, Feb 24-Mar 2.
• Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Interior West, Tue-Sat, Feb 24-28.
• Moderate risk of high winds across coastal portions of Washington and Oregon, Tue-Mon, Feb 24-Mar 2.
• Moderate risk of high winds across the Northern and Central Rockies, and Great Plains, Tue-Sat, Feb 24-28.
• Slight risk of high winds from the West Coast to the Great Plains, Tue-Mon, Feb 24-Mar 2.
• Slight risk of heavy snow for parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes region, and Northeast, Tue-Fri, Feb 24-27.
• Slight risk of heavy precipitation across the Ohio, Middle and Lower Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys, and southern portions of the Great Lakes region, Wed-Fri, Feb 25-27.
• Moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures across parts of southern Mainland Alaska and northern portions of Southeast Alaska, Fri-Mon, Feb 27-Mar 2.
• Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures across central and southern Alaska, Tue-Mon, Feb 24-Mar 2.
• Slight risk of high winds from the Alaska Peninsula to Southeast Alaska,Tue-Mon, Feb 24-Mar 2.

Detailed Summary

For Thursday February 19 - Monday February 23: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards

For Tuesday February 24 - Monday March 02: The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE continue to be in very good agreement, indicating a high amplitude 500-hPa ridge (trough) over the Bering Sea (Alaska, western Canada, and northwest CONUS) from the end of February to the beginning of March. Due to this stable and highly amplified longwave pattern, the heavy precipitation and heavy snow hazards were based largely on the 24-hour uncalibrated amounts from the ensemble means. Both the GEFS and ECENS continue to indicate increased chances of integrated vapor transport (IVT) values exceeding 250 kg/m/s compared to yesterday for parts of the West Coast. Similar to yesterday, the enhanced IVT potential over California and the Pacific Northwest from the beginning to middle of the period is anticipated to focus more across the Pacific Northwest by the end of week-2.

A moderate risk of heavy precipitation is posted for northern California and southern Oregon from Feb 24-25, while the moderate risk of heavy precipitation across the Pacific Northwest continues through the end of week-2. According to the GEFS and ECENS, 7-day total precipitation amounts for week-2 are near 4 inches, liquid equivalent, across the orographically favored areas including the coastal ranges of northern California and Cascades of Oregon and Washington. The long duration of enhanced precipitation increases the chance of localized urban and small stream flooding. A broad area of slight risk of heavy precipitation remains highlighted from the Pacific Northwest south to northern and central California (valid for the entirety of week-2). The ECENS and GEFS show increased chances for enhanced IVT values (>250 kg/m/s) extending further south to southern California compared to yesterday. The orientation of the flow is more favorable than the GEFS of heavy rainfall reaching southern coastal California. Due to this disparity and uncertainty, southern California is not included in the heavy precipitation risk at this time. Ensemble mean solutions continue to depict the amplified 500-hPa trough retrograding northwestward later in week-2, eventually leading to rising 500-hPa heights across California. A drying trend is expected for California towards the end of February.

Heavy snowfall is likely across the higher elevations of the Cascades along with the Klamath and Sierra Nevada Mountains through at least late February. The 24-hour amounts from the uncalibrated GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE support at least a moderate risk of heavy snow for the northern Sierra Nevada and Klamath Mountains from Feb 24-25 with this moderate risk continuing through the end of week-2 farther north across the Cascades. There continues to be large differences in probabilities of 7-day totals exceeding a foot between the GEFS (>20%) and ECENS (> 60%) especially across the Sierra Nevada, precluding high risks from being designated. A slight risk of heavy snow is designated for the Cascades, northern Sierra Nevada Mountains, Klamath Mountains, and northern Rockies for the entirety of week-2. The heaviest snowfall is expected to shift towards the northern Cascades by the end of the month. Due to the deep trough aloft and below-normal temperatures, snow levels are forecast to be lower than normal for late February with the foothills of the Cascades included in the slight risk of heavy snow. For elevations closer to sea level, forecast uncertainty on any snowfall accumulations is much higher and the dominant precipitation type is expected to be rain at this time.

The amplified 500-hPa trough and enhanced onshore flow also supports increased likelihood for high winds along much of the West Coast. A moderate risk of high winds is maintained for coastal portions of northern California, Washington, and Oregon (valid through week-2).

Multiple model ensemble means indicate a more amplified mid-level trough sinking further south and further inland across the West compared to yesterday. This pattern increases chances for more enhanced lee cyclogenesis. This enhanced feature combined with anticipated surface lows tracking across the Northern Tier supports the addition of a moderate risk of high winds across the Northern and Central Rockies, and Great Plains, Feb 24-28. The ECENS (GEFS) PET shows at least a 40% (30%) chance of wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile climatologically in the risk area. A broader slight risk of high winds continues to be highlighted from the West Coast to the Great Plains through week-2. Gusty winds and anticipated dry conditions could result in elevated wildfire danger, especially across the parched areas of the Central and Southern High Plains. The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) shows a moderate risk of significant fire potential across these regions towards the end of week-1 leading up to week-2.

Aforementioned leeside cyclogenesis in the Great Plains combined with possible lows and associated fronts tracking across eastern Canada may increase the potential for heavy precipitation across parts of the eastern CONUS. A slight risk of heavy precipitation (Feb 25-27) is posted for the Ohio, Middle and Lower Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys, and southern portions of the Great Lakes region. On the northwest side of any low pressure system, there is an increased chance of heavy snow. A slight risk of heavy snow is designated for the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes region, and Northeast, Feb 24-27, based mostly on where the GEFS and ECENS have near a 20 percent chance of more than 4 inches in a 3-day period, with further support from the GEFS Snow Water Equivalent PET indicating at least a 20% chance of 3-day totals exceeding the 85th percentile climatologically and half an inch of liquid equivalent in the Great Lakes region.

The mid-level ridging over the Bering Sea is less amplified compared to yesterday. This translates to decreased probabilities in model tools of temperatures reaching hazards criteria. The moderate risk has been scaled back slightly with lower spatial coverage across southern Mainland Alaska (trimmed back the western portions) and northern portions of Southeast Alaska, Feb 27-Mar 2. PETs indicate at least a 30% (40% locally) chance of minimum temperatures falling to the lowest 10th percentile climatologically across the highlighted moderate risk area. A broader area of slight risk extends further north to the central Mainland. A tightening pressure gradient tied to surface high pressure over the Bering Strait, interior Mainland Alaska, and the Yukon along with low pressure near southeastern Alaska continues to support a slight risk of high winds from the Alaska Peninsula east to southeastern Alaska. High winds combined with frigid temperatures may result in dangerous wind chill values. Interior areas of the Mainland may experience wind chill values of less than -20 deg F (-40 deg F locally). Given the anticipated pattern set up, there is increased risk of gap winds locally across Southeastern Alaska.

Forecaster: Melissa Ou

$$ Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.

Resources

Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool

GFS Ensemble Forecasts