Introduction:
Present:
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (1948-1998+)
- first attempt at a reanalysis covering such a long period of time
- more "advanced" than the then-current operational forecast model
- data is used by many people for varied purposes
- produced by people with a NWP background
- a large project: human errors
- not the final word
Future Trends:
Better models
- improvements in parameterizations (cloud, radiation, precip, etc)
- improvements in the subsurface model
- radiation code run more frequently (3 hours in N/N reanalysis)
- higher horizontal resolution (Indian monsoon, orography)
- higher vertical resolution (stratosphere)
Better assimilation techniques
- better theoretical techniques (ex 4D variational method)
- assimilation of rainfall (development in ETA)
- direct assimilation of radiances (in MRF)
- (better) use of SSM/I data
- "soil analysis"
- Since much of the satellite data was not used in the N/N Reanalysis,
there is a potential for a major improvements in the analyses.
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