Extratropical Highlights
FEBRUARY 2008
Forecast Forum
1.
Northern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height pattern during
February 2008 featured positive anomalies across the eastern North Pacific, the
central
North Atlantic
, and
Europe
, and negative anomalies over the high latitudes of the North Pacific and
Alaska
, central
Canada
, and
Greenland
(Fig. E9). The circulation across the
North Pacific Ocean
is consistent with La Niņa. The subtropical circulation at 200-hPa was also
consistent with La Niņa, with enhanced mid-Pacific troughs in both hemispheres
flanking the suppressed convection over the central equatorial Pacific, and
enhanced ridges over the western Pacific and Australasia flanking the region of
enhanced equatorial convection (Fig. T22).
The main surface temperature
departures during February reflected warmer than average conditions in
Europe
and northern
Russia
, and below-average temperatures over central
Canada
and south-central
Asia
(Fig. E1). The main precipitation anomalies
included above average totals over portions of the northwestern US, and from the
upper
Midwest
to
New England
, and below-average totals across southern
Europe
(Fig. E3).
a. North Pacific/
North America
The La Niņa signal was again
prominent across the
Pacific Ocean
during February. La Niņa is associated with a westward retraction of deep
tropical convection toward
Indonesia
, and a complete disappearance of tropical convection from the central
equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25).
These conditions result in a westward retraction of deep tropospheric heating,
and hence a westward retraction of the 200-hPasubtropical ridge toward
Indonesia
(Fig. T22). Over the central
equatorial Pacific, the reduction in convective heating contributes to an
increased strength of the mid-Pacific trough.
The strength, structure, and
position of the wintertime East Asian jet stream are strongly linked to
conditions in the tropics and subtropics. For example, the jet core coincides
with the strongest north-south height gradient at 200-hPa, which is heavily
influenced by the height anomalies in the subtropics. The jet exit region
coincides with the area of strong diffluence between the subtropical ridge and
trough axes. During La Niņa, the core of the East Asian jet stream is often
retracted westward toward Asia and the heart of the jet exit region is shifted
westward to west of the date line (Fig. T21).
The downstream circulation features such as the mean ridge over western
North America
and the
Hudson Bay
trough are retracted westward as well (Fig. E9).
During February, these conditions
were associated with a continuation of above-average precipitation over the
Inter-mountain region of the western US, and with well above-average
precipitation from the
Great Lakes
to New
England
(Figs. E3, E5). They
were also associated with below-average temperatures over central
Canada
(Fig. E1).
b.
North Atlantic
and
Europe
The 500-hPa circulation during
February featured a north-south dipole pattern height anomalies over the
North Atlantic Ocean
, with below-average heights centered over
Greenland
and above-average heights extending across the middle latitudes (Fig. E9).
This overall pattern reflects the ongoing positive phase of the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO), which has been prevailed for the past six months (Fig. E7,
Table E1). Also during February large positive
height anomalies were also evident across
Europe
.
These conditions were associated
with an anomalously strong northeasterly transport of mild marine air into
northern
Europe
and
Scandinavia
which, when combined with the strong ridge over
Europe
, resulted in a continuation of well above-average temperatures across
Europe
and northern
Russia
(Fig. E1).
Also, anomalous sinking motion downstream of the European ridge resulted in
significant precipitation deficits (10th percentile of occurrences)
across southeastern
Europe
.
2. Southern Hemisphere
The 500-hPa height field during February featured a continuation of
negative anomalies over
Antarctica
, and an anomalous zonal wave-4 pattern in the middle latitudes (Fig. E15).
In the subtropics, negative 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies over the central
Indian Ocean
and positive streamfunction anomalies over the central Pacific was consistent
with La Niņa (Fig. T22).
In
Australia
, a persistent upper-level trough and anomalous low-level southerly flow from
the
Great Australian Bight
led to a continuation of cooler than average conditions in the east. The mean
trough axis also demarked the areas of above- and (below-) average precipitation
(Fig. E3).
The South African rainy
season extends from October to April, and is often stronger than average during
La Niņa. The region received well above average rains during October
2007-January 2008, but recorded a deficit during February with totals in the
lowest 20th percentile of occurrences (Fig. E4).
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